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Robert Sutter – Positive equilibrium in USA - China Relations: Durable or not? (1-13)
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Critical Reviews
Barbé, Esther (Director) (2010). La Unión Europea más allá de sus fronteras. Hacia
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by Rita Duarte (142-146)
Blair, Tony (2010). A Journey. London: Hutchinson: 718 pp – by Evanthia Balla
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Rajan, Raghuram G. (2011). Linhas de Fractura – As fracturas escondidas que
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POSITIVE EQUILIBRIUM IN USA - CHINA RELATIONS:
DURABLE OR NOT?
Robert Sutter
Robert Sutter has been a Visiting Professor in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown
University since 2001. Professor Sutter specialized in Asian and Pacific Affairs and US foreign policy
in a US government career. He held a variety of analytical and supervisory positions
with the Library of Congress, and also worked with the Central Intelligence Agency, the Department
of State, and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. After leaving the Library of Congress
where he was for many years the Senior Specialist in International Politics for the Congressional
Research Service, served as the National Intelligence Officer for East Asia and the Pacific at the US
Government’s National Intelligence Council. He received a Ph.D. in History and East Asian
Languages from Harvard University. He has held adjunct faculty positions with Georgetown, George
Washington, and Johns Hopkins Universities and the University of Virginia. He has
published 18 books, numerous articles and several hundred government reports dealing with
contemporary East Asian and pacific Countries and their relations with the United States.
Abstract
Repeated episodes of Chinese public pressure against the United States during 2009 and
2010 on a wide range of issues involving seas near China, Taiwan, Tibet, and economic
disputes are subject to different interpretations but on balance they do not seem to
seriously upset the prevailing positive equilibrium between the US and Chinese
governments.
Keywords
The United States; China; engagement; assertiveness; push-back
How to cite this article
Sutter, Robert (2011). "Positive equilibrium in USA - China Relations: Durable or not?”.
JANUS.NET e-journal of International Relations, Vol. 2, N.º 1, Spring 2011. Consulted
[online] on date of last visit, observare.ual.pt/janus.net/en_vol2_n1_art1.
Article received in December 2010 and accepted for publication in March 2011
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Vol. 2, n.º 1 (Spring 2011), pp. 1-13
Positive Equilibrium in USA - China Relations: Durable or not?
Robert Sutter
2
POSITIVE EQUILIBRIUM IN USA - HINA RELATIONS:
DURABLE OR NOT?
Robert Sutter
Introduction
Relations between the United States and China emerged as the most important
bilateral relationship in the 21st century. China’s global economic importance and rising
political and military power came in a world order where the United States faced many
challenges but still exerted broad leadership reflecting its superpower status. Whether
the two powers will support international peace and development and pursue more
cooperative ties, will become antagonistic as their interests compete, or will pursue
some other path in world affairs, remains the subject of ongoing debate among
specialists and policy makers in both countries.1
Publicly, officials in China and the United States tended for much of this decade to
emphasize the positive aspects of the relationship. These include ever closer trade and
investment ties leading to deepening economic interdependence of the United States
and China. Converging security interests involve dealing with international terrorism,
North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, UN peacekeeping and other issues involving
sensitive situations in Asia and the world. China has come far in the post Mao Zedong
(d. 1976) period in adopting norms of free market economic behavior supported by the
United States and essential to China’s success in dealing with the conditions of
economic globalization of the current era. China also has substantially changed policies
on proliferation of weapons of mass destruction to conform more to US-backed
international norms.
US-China collaboration on climate change and environmental issues has grown in the
recent period, and bilateral discussion on human rights continues amid mixed reviews
on progress in China toward accepting US-backed international norms. US-China
differences over Taiwan have subsided with the coming to power in 2008 of Taiwan
President Ma Ying-jeou, who has sharply shifted Taiwan toward a more cooperative
stance in relations with China. In broad terms and with some reservations, the US
government accepts and supports the Chinese Communist administration as a leading
actor in world affairs; the Chinese administration has moved to accept, at least for now,
the existing international order where the United States exerts leading power in Asian
and world affairs.2
The benign image of China-US relations that flowed from recent public discourse of US
and Chinese officials was reinforced by prominent commentators, particularly in the
United States, emphasizing the convergence of interests between the United States and
1 Aaron Friedberg (2009). “Is China a Military Threat?—Menace,” The National Interest (September-
October 2009, 19-25, 31-32.
2 Kenneth Liberthal (2009). “The China-US Relationship Goes Global,” Current History 108: 719
(September 2009) 243-246.
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Robert Sutter
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China. Some argued for an international order determined chiefly by cooperation
between the two governments, what is called a “G-2” world order for the 21st century.3
In practice, however, Sino-American relations remain more complicated and conflicted
than recent official discourse and arguments by commentators in favor of a Sino-
American international condominium would lead us to expect. A review of the many
decades on Sino-American relations shows enormous changes over time, with patterns
of confrontation, conflict, and suspicion much more prevalent than patterns of
accommodation and cooperation. The past four decades have featured sometimes
remarkable improvements in relations as leaders on both sides have pursued practical
benefits through pragmatic means. That the base of cooperation is often incomplete,
thin, and dependent on changeable circumstances at home and abroad shows as the
societies and governments more often than not demonstrate salient differences over a
variety of critical issues involving security, values, and economics. If one gets below
the surface of recent positive official discussion, a review of developments and trends
shows officials, elites, and public opinion on both sides demonstrating suspicion and
wariness of the other country and its possible negative intentions or implications
affecting Sino-American relations. 4
Positive Equilibrium in Relations between the US and Chinese
Administrations
Fortunately for those seeking improvement in Sino-American relations, the many
differences between the United States and China more often than not were off-set in
the first decade of the 21st century by circumstances that caused the two leaderships to
pragmatically manage their differences while seeking to avoid trouble and where
possible develop common ground. The process was not uniform or smooth, but the
result was a positive equilibrium between the US and Chinese administrations that
appeared likely to persist into the second decade of the 21st century, despite many
differences and disputes.5
During this period, both the US and Chinese administrations became preoccupied with
other issues; they generally seemed reluctant to exacerbate tensions with one another.
Growing economic interdependence and cooperation over key issues in Asian and world
affairs reinforced each government’s tendency to emphasize the positive and pursue
constructive relations with one another. The emerging positive stasis in US-China
relations provides a basis for greater cooperation over economic, security and other
interests and issues.
Differences in strategic, economic, political and other interests also have remained
strong; they represent major obstacles to further cooperation between the two
countries. Policy makers in both countries also continue to harbor suspicions about
each others’ intentions. They remain on alert for changing circumstances regarding
Taiwan, Japan, North Korea, international economic trends, US and Chinese domestic
politics, and other developments that could seriously complicate the bilateral
relationship.
3 Elizabeth Economy and Adam Segal, “The G-2 Mirage,” Foreign Affairs 88:3 (May-June 2009) 56-72.
4 Sutter, Robert (2010). U.S.-Chinese Relations: Perilous Past, Pragmatic Present Lanham, Md.: Rowman
and Littlefield.
5 Sutter, U.S.-Chinese Relations:147-168.
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A pattern of dualism in US-China relations has arisen as part of the ostensibly positive
equilibrium in this decade. The pattern involves constructive and cooperative
engagement on the one hand and contingency planning or hedging on the other. It
reflects the mix noted above of converging and competing interests and prevailing
leadership suspicions and cooperation.
Chinese and US contingency planning and hedging against one another sometimes
involves actions like the respective Chinese and US military buildups that are separate
from and develop in tandem with the respective engagement policies the two
leaderships pursue with each other. At the same time, dualism shows as each
government has used engagement to build positive and cooperative ties while at the
same time seeking to use these ties to build interdependencies and webs of
relationships that have the effect of constraining the other power from taking actions
that oppose its interests. While the analogy is not precise, the policies of engagement
pursued by the United States and China toward one another have featured respective
“Gulliver strategies” that are designed to tie down aggressive, assertive or other
negative policy tendencies of the other power through webs of interdependence in
bilateral and multilateral relationships.
The recent positive stasis in US-China relations is based on an increasing convergence
of these respective engagement policies and Gulliver strategies. But the fact remains
that these Gulliver strategies reflect underlying suspicions and conflicting interests that
feature prominently in the calculations of both the US and Chinese administrations as
they pursue their relations with one another.6
Beginning in the last half of the 1990s, Chinese leaders reviewed and reassessed their
previous more confrontational approach to US pressures against China and
longstanding Chinese opposition to US dominance and so-called “hegemony” in Asian
and world affairs. These US pressures and dominance previously had been seen as
antithetical to Chinese interests and as requiring strong opposition and resistance by
China.
There was debate among foreign and Chinese specialists regarding the significance of
this reassessment. According to some foreign specialists who interviewed numerous
Chinese officials and foreign policy specialists, the Chinese leaders by the latter 1990s
settled on a strategy that played down differences with and resistance to the United
States, in favor of an approach of ever greater cooperation with the American
government. This approach was said to remain sensitive to US intrusions on important
Chinese interests involving Taiwan, but it deemphasized past Chinese concerns
regarding US policies and behavior designed to solidify US leadership in Asian and
world affairs.7
Against this background, some US and Chinese specialists judged that the new Chinese
approach of pragmatic adjustment met and would continue to meet US approval and
result in ever greater convergence and cooperation in US-China relations. They
maintained that the Chinese adjustment was based on greater maturity and confidence
among Chinese leaders as they dealt with the United States and world affairs. Chinese
6 This dualism and respective Gulliver strategies are discussed in Robert Sutter, “China and US Security
and Economic Interests: Opportunities and Challenges,” in Ross, Robert and Tunsjo, Oystein (2010)
eds., US-China-EU Relations: Managing The New World Order London: Routledge.
7 Goldstein, Avery (2005). Rising to the Challenge: China’s Grand Strategy and International Security.
Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press.
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Robert Sutter
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maturity and confidence were seen as based on the Chinese leaders’ success in
promoting decades of remarkable economic growth along with military modernization
and social change in China. Indeed, the maturity and confidence was said to lie behind
much of the “new thinking” said to be influencing greater Chinese involvement in
regional and other multilateral organizations, and to off-set traditional Chinese views of
having been victimized by outside powers and needing to be on guard to prevent future
exploitation or oppression.8
An opposing school of thought among US and Chinese specialists, which includes this
writer, judges that the circumstances surrounding Chinese foreign policy and Chinese
policy toward the United States have remained and continue to remain far too
uncertain to posit a truly lasting Chinese strategy of cooperation and convergence with
the United States. There have been remarkable twists and turns in Sino-American
relations, even following the reported Chinese leadership decision in the latter 1990s to
pursue a moderate policy toward the United States. The stability of what is seen as an
inherently fragile relationship was challenged this decade by antipathy in the United
States over Chinese policies and practices in economic, security, and other areas, and
by the policies and practices of Taiwan, North Korea, Japan, and other international
actors.9
This writer and other specialists in this group remain unconvinced that Chinese leaders
are confident and mature in their recent moderate approach to the United States.
Rather, Chinese leaders are seen as often vulnerable and uncertain as they react and
respond to policies and practices, particularly of the powerful and sometimes
unpredictable United States government but also including the leaders of Taiwan,
Japan, Russia, North Korea, India and others. They adjust to changing circumstances,
weighing in each instance the costs and benefits of maintaining or changing policies,
and thereby seek to sustain key Chinese leadership priorities and advance the
development of what they call China’s comprehensive national power.
In recent years, Chinese leaders are seen by this group of analysts as hedging their
bets as they endeavor to persuade the United States and other important world powers
of China’s avowed determination to pursue the road of peace and development. Thus,
the new thinking seen in greater Chinese international activism and positivism
regarding multilateral organizations and world politics highlighted in the December
2005 Chinese White Paper entitled China’s Peaceful Development Road appears to be
only one part of recent Chinese foreign policy. Such positive and cooperative new
thinking seems balanced by a concurrent large-scale buildup in Chinese military forces
backed by assertions in Chinese white papers on national security, other official
commentary, and assertive diplomatic and military actions that make clear that
Chinese leaders are quite prepared to protect their interests in strong and assertive
ways under circumstances seen to warrant such actions. In the meantime, the new
Chinese diplomatic and international activism and positivism not only fosters a positive
and beneficent image for China. They are seen by these analysts as serving an
important practical objective of fostering norms and practices in regional and
8 Medeiros, Evan and Fravel, R. Taylor (2003). “China’s New Diplomacy,” Foreign Affairs 82:6 (November-
December 2003): 22-35.
9 Shirk, Susan (2007). China: Fragile Superpower. New York: Oxford University Press. Sutter, Robert
(2007). Chinese Foreign Relations: Power and Policy since the Cold War Lanham, Md.: Rowman and
Littlefield: 3-12.
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international organizations and circumstances that create a buffer against perceived US
efforts to “contain” China and to impede China’s rising power. Roughly consistent with
the image of the “Gulliver strategy” noted earlier, they foster webs of interdependent
relationships that tie down and hamper unilateral or other actions by the US
superpower that could intrude on important Chinese interests in Asian and world
affairs.10
2009-2010-a time of “testing” in Sino-American relations
Events in 2009
It was against this background that President Barack Obama took office in January
2009. 2009 showed the strengths and the weaknesses of contemporary American
engagement with China. President Barack Obama entered office to face a host of major
international and domestic problems. China policy was not one of them. The president’s
campaign was unusual as China policy was absent as a significant issue of debate.
Expert opinion urged the incoming US government to pursue the positive equilibrium
seen in closer US-China engagement developed during the latter years of the George
W. Bush administration.11
As noted earlier, prominent Americans saw cooperation between China and the United
States as the most important relationship in 21st century international politics. They
argued for a “G-2” condominium between Washington and Beijing in order to direct
major international issues including the global economic recession, climate change,
conflicts in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and nuclear weapons development in North Korea
and Iran.
The Obama government was more realistic about what could be expected in
cooperation with China. It sought China’s assistance, as well as the assistance of other
important powers, in dealing with complicated international issues. It tried to reassure
Chinese leaders that the US government would not seriously challenge China in dealing
with sensitive issues regarding trade protectionism, human rights, meeting with Tibet’s
Dalai Lama, and arms sales to Taiwan. It followed the pattern developed during the
Bush administration of dealing with the many differences in US-China relations through
various bilateral dialogues. There are over sixty such dialogues, including an annual
meeting led by the US Secretaries of State and Treasury, where American and Chinese
leaders endeavor to manage their differences and broaden cooperation, out of the
limelight of media scrutiny. As a result, the carefully managed public discourse between
the US and Chinese governments continued to emphasize the positives in the
relationship. Differences were dealt with in private meetings.12
Nevertheless, many significant differences became vividly clear as the year wore on,
underlining the limits of positive US-Chinese engagement. Chinese officials criticized
10 Saunders, Phillip (2006). China’s Global Activism: Strategy, Drivers, and Tools (Washington, D.C.:
National Defense University Press Institute for National Strategic Studies Occasional Paper 4 June 2006):
8-9.
11 deLisle, Jacques (2009). China Policy Under Obama Foreign Policy Research Institute E-Notes February
15
12 Liberthal, “The China-US Relationship Goes Global.”
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the Obama government’s strategy in Southwest Asia and eschewed significant
involvement against the Taliban. Chinese leaders complained frequently about US
stewardship in the global economy and made repeated references to diversifying from
the US market, investment in US government securities, and use of the US dollar.
American complaints about restricted access to the Chinese market amid the massive
trade deficit with China saw some moves to restrict Chinese imports and other actions
which China greeted with trade retaliation and loud charges of protectionism.13
Chinese and American officials endeavored to develop common ground on climate
change, but progress was limited and public acrimony between the US and Chinese
delegations highlighted the December international meeting in Copenhagen. President
Obama undertook extraordinary last minute efforts to get China, India, Brazil and
South Africa to join in support of the limited accord that was agreed to.14
Sino-American cooperation was better in dealing with North Korea’s second nuclear
weapons test and other provocations, but the powers remained at odds regarding the
utility of using international pressure to compel North Korean cooperation. Beijing was
even more reluctant to apply pressure against Iran’s nuclear development.15
Military relations remained tense. Chinese government ships confronted and harassed
US Navy surveillance ships patrolling in international waters that China claimed as a
special zone in the South China Sea. China blocked military exchanges for months
because of a US arms transfer to Taiwan late in the Bush administration. Renewed
military exchanges in 2009 featured strong Chinese warnings against US arms sales to
Taiwan. 16
Against this background, expectations for US-China relations were guarded. Deep
mutual suspicion reportedly characterized official US-China interchange. Non-
government demonstrations of antipathy showed, especially on the American side. The
US media was very critical of President Obama’s “weak” stance on various human
rights, trade and other issues sensitive to Americans during his November trip to China.
Majorities of Americans were unimpressed by the purported benefits of engagement as
they continued to disapprove of the Chinese government and increasingly saw China as
a threat to the United States.17
Despite their salience, disputes and differences in US-China relations in 2009 did not
appear sufficient to substantially upset enduring patterns of pragmatic decision making
among the Chinese and American leaders focused on continued engagement with one
another. The Obama administration remained preoccupied with a wide range of
important domestic and foreign policy questions. In this context, a significant dispute
with China appeared among the last things the preoccupied US government would
want; on the contrary, the incentive to continue at least a semblance of cooperation
and to avoid conflict with China seemed strong.
13 Glaser, Bonnie (2010). “Obama-Hu Summit: Success or Disappointment?” Comparative Connections
11:4 (January 2010), 25-35.
14 Babington, Charles and Loven, Jennifer (2009). “Obama raced clock, chaos, comedy for climate deal,”
www.ap.com December 19 (accessed December 21, 2009)
15 Landler, Mark (2010). “Clinton warns China on Iran Sanctions,” New York Times January 29, 2010
www.nytimes.com (accessed February 23, 2010).
16 Buckley, Chris (2010). “China PLA officers urge economic punch against US,” Reuters February 9, 2010
www.reuters.com (accessed February 12, 2010)
17 Glaser, “Obama-Hu Summit.”
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The Chinese administration of President Hu Jintao set a central foreign and domestic
policy goal for the next decade focused on China fostering a continuation of the
prevailing international situation seen generally advantageous for China in order to
allow for expeditious modernization in China. Exploiting this period of perceived
“strategic opportunity” in international affairs seemed to require keeping US-China
relations moving in positive directions.18
The Hu Jintao administration worked hard in fostering business-like and constructive
relations with the George W. Bush administration. In 2009, the Chinese administration
insured that its initiatives and probes did not seriously disrupt the advantages for China
in sustaining generally positive relations with the United States. Thus, Chinese probes
against US military surveillance in the South China Sea subsided. Despite public
complaints and threats, Chinese investment in US securities continued and Chinese
reliance on the US dollar remained. While Chinese officials planned for an eventual
reliance on the Chinese consumer to drive economic growth, Chinese entrepreneurs
seemed determined to sustain and expand their shares of the reviving US market.
China also acceded to varying degrees to US arguments on North Korea, Iran, and
climate change. It resumed active military contacts cut off because of US arms sales to
Taiwan in 2008.19
Early 2010
Unfortunately for those seeking to strengthen the image of positive cooperation and
engagement between the two world powers, 2010 got off to an acrimonious start.
February was a particularly bad month. Chinese officials and authoritative commentary
took the unusual step of escalating criticism and threats against reports of planned US
arms sales to Taiwan. The Chinese administration well knew that the sales were
expected and had probably been delayed in order to avoid controversy prior to
President Obama’s visit to China in November 2009. Nonetheless, official Chinese
media was full of warnings in early 2010 against the sales. When the US package of
$6.4 billion of weapons systems was announced in early February, the Chinese reaction
was publicly strong. Concrete retaliation included halting some defense talks, while
threatened retaliation was directed against US firms selling military equipment to
Taiwan and included warnings that China would be less cooperative with US officials in
dealing with such salient international problems as Iran’s suspected nuclear weapons
program.20
The Obama government made no secret of the fact that in deference to China and
concern over the president’s trip to Beijing in November, the US government had
postponed the US president’s meeting with the Dalai Lama rather than meet with the
Tibetan leader during his visit to Washington in October 2009. Thus, when news of the
rescheduled Obama-Dalai Lama meeting surfaced in February 2010, Chinese officials
18 Lampton, David Michael, The Three Faces of Chinese Power Berkely CA: University of California Press:
32-36.
19 See quarterly reviews of US-China relations in Comparative Connections www.csis.org/pacfor
20 Romberg, Alan (2010). “Beijing’s Hard Line against US Arms Sales to Taiwan,” PACNET Newsletter #4
February 3, 2010 www.csis.org/pacfor
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and media once again appeared to be trying to intimidate the Americans by warning
against the meeting and its consequences for US-China relations.21
China’s Tougher Posture—Competing Views
Coming after the sometimes acrimonious Sino-American interaction at the international
climate change meeting in Copenhagen and following limited US success in eliciting
greater Chinese support for key US international objectives regarding climate change,
Iran’s nuclear program, and international currency and trade issues, the tougher public
posture of China prompted a range of speculation by media observers and international
affairs specialists in the United States, China, other parts of Asia and the West. While
there were often widely varying views and perspectives, the debate focused on two
general groups.
The more prominent group warned of a potential or actual turning point in China-US
relations.22 The specialists and media commentators in this group tended to see rising
China as having reached a point of greater power and influence in world affairs, and
this rise was now prompting China to press the United States for concessions on key
issues of longstanding dispute like Taiwan and Tibet. China’s greater “confidence” and
“assertiveness” also were prompting Beijing to take tough stances in disputes with the
United States on currency and trade issues, human rights practices, and cyber attacks,
and to do less in support of US-backed international efforts regarding Iran, North
Korea, and climate change. Some saw China taking the lead and setting the agenda in
US-China relations, with the United States placed in a weaker and reactive position.23 It
was common among these commentators for the Americans and others in Asia and the
West among them to argue for a tougher US stance against China, a so-called
American “push-back” against perceived Chinese assertiveness.24 However, some
specialists in this group judged that the Obama government, with its many
preoccupations, was not up to the task of managing the newly assertive China; they
saw a shift in international power in Asian and world affairs away from US leadership
and toward China developing greater momentum.25
The specific points made by these commentators and specialists included the following:
- China emerged from the global economic crisis of 2008-2009 stronger than other
major powers, including the United States, which remained stuck in a slow recovery
with large unemployment. Commentators in China and abroad commonly saw
economics as the prime cause for the power shift away from US leadership and
toward China that they perceived was well underway in Asian and world affairs.
Indeed, it was judged by some that the international economic system was
undergoing a significant change, away from Western-led norms and institutions and
21 “China warns against Obama-Dalai Lama meeting,” Reuters February 3, 2010 www.reuters.com
(accessed February 23, 2010).
22 Shambaugh, David (2010). “The Chinese tiger shows its claws,” Financial Times February 17, 2010
www.ft.com (accessed February 23, 2010).
23 Hoagland, James (2010). “As Obama bets on Asia, regional players hedge,” Washington Post February
11, 2010 www.washingtonpost.com (accessed February 23, 2010).
24 Marr, Kendra (2010). “W.H. takes tougher tone with China, “ Politico February 16, 2010
www.politico.com (accessed February 23, 2010).
25 Jacques, Martin (2010). “Crouching dragon, weakened eagle,” International Herald Tribune February 16,
2010, www.iht.com (accessed February 23, 2010).
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toward international regimes where rising China would play an ever greater role
seen at odds with the liberal Western order fostered by the United States.
- In his visit to China in November 2009 and other US-China interchange, President
Obama and his administration signaled a strong need for US cooperation with China
on a wide variety of international as well as bilateral issues. The US policy agenda
was seen to underline the necessity of the US government working closely with
China. Under these circumstances, Chinese leaders were portrayed by Chinese and
foreign experts to have discerned that America needed China more than China
needed the United States. In the past, such calculations were seen behind upsurges
in Chinese pressure on the US government regarding Taiwan and other issues. In
the current case, President Obama was viewed as “weak” and needing to
accommodate China, which could afford to make stronger demands and to do less
to accommodate its American partner.
- One line of analysis in this group said that the incentive for senior Chinese leaders
to adopt tougher and less cooperative policies toward the United States had less to
do with their confidence in international affairs and more to do with their concerns
about managing domestic Chinese pressures. Chinese elites and popular opinion
reportedly were influenced by international and Chinese commentary highlighting
China’s rise from the economic crisis while the United States lagged behind. These
segments of Chinese opinion joined with those officials in China representing
military, domestic economic and other stakeholders in China’s ever growing
international profile who were not associated with the more experienced and
generally diplomatic approach of the professional Chinese foreign policy
establishment. The domestic, military and other officials joined with popular and
elite opinion in pushing for greater attention to Chinese interests and greater
resistance to US requests or pressures. In order to preserve domestic stability and
the continued smooth rule of the communist party in China, President Hu Jintao and
other leaders were seen to have little choice but to accommodate domestic forces
pushing for a harder position against America.26
The second group of Chinese and international observers was much less prominent
than the above noted commentators during early 2010. The specialists and
commentators of the second group duly acknowledged China’s more publicly assertive
stance on Taiwan and Tibet; limited Chinese cooperation with the United States on
issues ranging from currency and trade issues to climate change and Iran’s nuclear
program also was noted. These observers often anticipated a difficult year ahead for
Sino-American relations, especially as the Obama government was pressed by domestic
economic and political forces in the United States to adopt a firmer stance against
China on sensitive issues like human rights, trade disputes, and Iran.
However, these specialists and commentators tended to see more continuity than
change in Sino-American relations.27 They disagreed with idea that China had now
reached a point where it was prepared to confront America on key issues and or where
26 Wong, Edward (2010). “Rift grows as US and China seek differing goals,” New York Times February 20,
2010 www.nytimes.com (accessed February 23, 2010)
27 Pei, Minxin (2010), “The Tension is overstated,” International Herald Tribune February 16, 2010
www.iht.com (accessed February 23, 2010); Elizabeth Economy, “The US and China Have at it Again;
but it’s much ado about nothing,” http://blogs.cfr.org February 2, 2010 (accessed February 12, 2010).
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it was prepared to risk substantial deterioration in Sino-American relations. Some of
these observers tended to see the Chinese pressure on Taiwan and Tibet as “probes” or
“tests” of US resolve, not unlike the probes China appeared to carry out in the South
China Sea in 2009 and in threatening that year to move away substantially from the US
dollar and to move away from focus on the US market for Chinese exports. As noted
earlier, China was viewed to have pulled back from those 2009 initiatives once it was
clear that their consequences would be adverse to broad Chinese interests.28
Among specific reasons for judging continuation of Chinese efforts to avoid substantial
conflict and sustain positive engagement in the United States were:
- China’s dependence on the US economy and its reliance on the international order
led by the United States remained enormous. The ability of an aroused United
States to complicate and undermine Chinese interests in sustaining the “strategic
opportunity” of an advantageous international environment in the first two decades
of the twenty first century also remained enormous.
- China was compelled in the previous decade to reverse its strong opposition to US
hegemonism in the interests of a policy to reassure the United States and its
associates that China’s rise would be peaceful. It did so in major part to avoid US
balancing that would impede China’s growth and so complicate China’s rise that it
might lead to the end of the CCP regime.29 Reversing such a policy approach would
be a very difficult undertaking for a Hu Jintao administration entering its last years
with a focus on smooth succession from one leadership generation to the next.
Thus, the incentive for the Hu Jintao administration to sustain generally positive
Sino-US relations was reinforced by the pending generational leadership succession
due to take place at the 18th Chinese Communist Party Congress in 2012.
Preparations for this decennial event involve widespread behind-the-scenes
bargaining over policy, power, and appointment issues that are best carried out in
an atmosphere where Chinese leaders are not diverted by serious controversy
among the many issues they face at home and abroad, notably Sino-American
relations.
- If China were to choose to confront the United States, it would presumably be
inclined to follow the past pattern China used in dealing with international initiatives
against potential or real adversaries. That pattern involves “united front” tactics
whereby China is sensitive to and endeavors to build closer ties with other powers
as it prepares to confront the adversary, the “main” target. However, prevailing
conditions in Chinese foreign relations did not show particularly good Chinese
relations with many important world power centers as China faced the United States
in 2010. China’s relations with India, Japan, Western Europe, South Korea,
Australia, and arguably Russia were very mixed and often troubled. With the
exception of Japan, they were more troubled and less cooperative than they were
earlier in the decade.
28 These points and those in the bullets paragraphs below benefited from off-the-record consultations and
meetings the author had with two dozen American specialists and five Chinese officials in Washington DC
during February 2010.
29 Lampton, Three Faces of Chinese Power 32-34; Robert Sutter, Chinese Foreign Relations: Power and
Policy since the Cold War (second edition) Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 2010, p. 10.
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Subsequent events—sustained positive equilibrium
Events later in 2010 did not resolve the debate between those commentators seeing an
assertive China prepared to push the United States on differences, and those
commentators seeing Chinese and US leaders seeing their interests well served through
policies and practices that avoided conflict and sustained a positive equilibrium in US
China relations. However, the zig zags of Chinese behavior challenging US policies and
practices appeared to have limits. The top Chinese leaders made clear their concern to
preserve and develop the positive equilibrium in US-China relations, notably by
beginning preparations to send President Hu to the United States on an official visit in
early 2011.30
The Americans were disappointed by China’s refusal to condemn North Korea for its
sinking of a South Korean warship, the Choenan, killing 46 South Korean sailors. South
Korea, backed by the United States, sought to punish North Korea short of violence,
notably through the United Nations. China insured that North Korea was not officially
the target of UN actions. South Korea and the United States announced military
exercises in the seas on both sides of the peninsula. For the first time in recent
memory, China publicly opposed the exercises in the Yellow Sea as a threat to China.
The Chinese complaints became a focal point of sharply worded commentary in official
and unofficial Chinese media for weeks. Chinese comment especially objected to the US
aircraft carrier based in Japan, the George Washington, taking part in the Yellow Sea
exercises.
Meanwhile, Chinese officials were privately and publicly expanding and refining their
recently avowed concern with supporting their “core interests” to include broad claims
to island groups in the South China Sea also claimed by other states. The presumably
uncompromising claims involving Chinese “core” interests included Chinese unilateral
assertions and attempted regulation of military surveillance, fishing, oil exploration and
other rights heretofore used the United States and neighboring Southeast Asian
countries, among others.31
China was put on the defensive in reacting to interventions, including a notable
statement by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, at the annual ASEAN Regional
Forum (ARF) meeting in Hanoi on July 23, 2010 regarding recent tensions in the South
China Sea. China’s foreign ministry interpreted the U.S. intervention as an attack on
China. The ARF meeting also saw a new U.S. presidential commitment, backed by
ASEAN, to participate actively in the East Asian Summit, raising the profile of that
regional body over China’s preference for Asian only regional groups. Further
complicating China’s regional calculus were prominent advances in U.S. military and
other relations with Vietnam shown during celebrations of a US-Vietnam anniversary in
August that involved exercises with a U.S. aircraft carrier deployed near disputed
regions of the South China Sea. The aircraft carrier, the George Washington, was the
same ship Chinese commentary had harshly objected to participating in announced
South Korean-US exercises in the Yellow Sea. The US contingent of ships included an
advanced destroyer that entered Vietnam’s Danang harbor. The ship had the
symbolically important name, The John McCain.
30 Glaser, Bonnie (2010), “U.S.-Chinese Relations,” Comparative Connections 12:3 (October 2010),
www.csis.org/pacfor
31 “China-Southeast Asia Relations,” Comparative Connections 12:3 (October 2010) www.csis.org/pacfor
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China long had relied on a regional approach based on growing trade and other
economic contacts and bilateral and multilateral diplomacy designed to reassure
Southeast Asian neighbors and their regional grouping, The Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN). As disputes in the South China Sea with regional claimants and
the United States gained prominence in recent years, China became more assertive in
defending its claims. It notably reconfigured military ships for use in enforcing
unilateral fishing bans, deployed strong forces from all three Chinese naval fleets in
shows of force in area, and asserted that China’s claims to the islands, waters and
resources of South China Sea represented a “core interest” of China that presumably
brooks no compromise.
Chinese officials and commentary in Chinese media at first countered the U.S.
intervention at the ARF meeting and other American policy initiatives in Southeast Asia
with charges directed at the United States for its alleged self-serving and destabilizing
intentions. Those attacks meshed with public Chinese attacks against concurrent U.S.
military exercises with South Korean forces in reaction to North Korea’s sinking of a
South Korean warship, the Cheonan.
Later, some Chinese commentary dissented from the harsh public approach to the
United States. The criticism of the United States and others over the South China Sea
disputes and other issues subsided. For the time being at least, it appeared that China
would remain focused on publicly stressing trade and reassuring diplomacy in
Southeast Asia, while defending its territorial claims and continuing to build military
capabilities.
In sum, China seemed unprepared to allow the disputes with the United States over the
South China Sea, the Yellow Sea, and related matters to escalate in ways that would
seriously undermine US-China relations. President Hu Jintao and other senior Chinese
leaders went out of their way to greet visiting US envoys not of their rank and
conveyed a strong public message of reassurance that China would sustain positive
engagement with the United States. Indications of limits of Chinese assertive against
the interests of the United States, senior Chinese military leaders reversed recent
criticism and told American officials and the world that China sought resumed military
exchanges with the United States. More importantly, President Hu began preparations
for a major visit to Washington in early 2011.
Bibliography
Goldstein, Avery (2005). Rising to the Challenge: China’s Grand Strategy and
International Security. Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press.
Lampton, David Michael (2008). The Three Faces of Chinese Power Berkeley CA:
University of California Press.
Shirk, Susan (2007). China: Fragile Superpower. New York: Oxford University Press.
Sutter, Robert (2010). U.S.-Chinese Relations: Perilous Past, Pragmatic Present
Lanham, Md.: Rowman and Littlefield
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
ISSN: 1647-7251
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EUROPEAN IDENTITY – SUPRANATIONAL CITIZENSHIP
Paula Marques Santos
PhD, Ms, PG, BSc. in International Relations. Coordinator of the Postgraduate,
long life learning and Bachelor Degree in
Executive Secretary Skills (Secretarial Studies) at ESTGL
Mónica Silva
BSc in International Relations, Professor at
Higher School of Technology and Management Studies in Lamego (ESTGL)
Abstract
The present article aims to advance a reflexion on the construction of the European Union
citizenship/identity and identify the main challenges behind the consolidation of the
citizenship bond and the difficulties in making EU citizens becoming more involved in the
integration process and in bringing European institutions closer to normal citizens. .
Keywords
European citizenship; Treaty of Lisbon; supranationality; fundamental rights;
democratic citizenship; challenges
How to cite this article
Santos, Paula Marques; Silva, Mónica (2011). "European identity – supranational
citizenship”. JANUS.NET e-journal of International Relations, Vol. 2, N.º 1, Spring 2011.
Consulted [online] on date of last visit, observare.ual.pt/janus.net/en_vol2_n1_art2.
Article received in December 2010 and accepted for publication in March 2011
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Paula Marques Santos e Mónica Silva
15
EUROPEAN IDENTITY – SUPRANATIONAL CITIZENSHIP
Paula Marques Santos e Mónica Silva
Context
In the last few years, European citizenship has assumed increased significance in the
debate on the importance of its efficient strengthening to ensure the consolidation of
European integration and to bring institutions closer to citizens.
In fact, although Monet did refer to the construction of the community as a union of
people and not just states, it was only in the 1990s1, with the Treaty on the European
Union (TEU) and the Treaty of the European Community (TEC), that article 17 clearly
defined a citizen of the EU – this quality was to be recognized in any national of a
Member State (MS), whose nationality was that stated in the national laws of the
Member State in question.
This citizenship concept immediately took up a supranational nature complementary to
that of national citizenship. In other words, EU citizenship was to complement national
citizenship, not replace it, and encompassed a set of rights and duties in addition to
those stemming from the quality of being a citizen of a MS2.
The statute of EU citizenship implied, up to now and for all EU citizens, just a list of
rights, of which the following stand out: right to free movement and the right of
residence in the territory of any MS; active and passive electoral acts in the
elections into the European Parliament and in municipal elections in the MS of
residence, in the same conditions as nationals of the MS in question; right to
diplomatic protection in a third country (non-EU state) by the diplomatic or consular
authorities of another Member State, if their own country does not have diplomatic
representation there, to the same extent as that provided for nationals of that Member
State; the right to petition the European Parliament and the right to appeal to an
Ombudsman appointed by the European Parliament concerning instances of
maladministration in the activities of Community institutions or bodies (procedures
governed by Articles 194 and 195 of the TEC; the right to write to any Community
institution or body in one of the languages of the Member States and to receive a
response in the same language (Article 21, third paragraph, TEC);the right to access
1 Before the signing of the TEU and TEC, joint work was carried out to make the community area more
cohesive. During the 1990s, there were significant developments to conceptualize and implement
citizenship and education for citizenship in Europe, a process that involved several institutions and
entities, including the Council of Europe and the European Commission. The Council of Europe has been
involved in human rights and citizenship education since the 1980s. The Erasmus mobility programme,
through which the European Commission started promoting educational transnational projects, is an
example of that effort. The common denominator in these initiatives was to encourage a feeling of
European identity and citizenship.
2 The listed duties are those that stem from the nationality of each citizen, and there is no added duty
resulting from EU citizenship, other than the duty to respect European citizenship and the duty to protect
that same citizenship.
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European Parliament, Council3 and Commission documents, subject to certain
conditions (Article 255, TEC).
However, all these duties associated with European citizenship have always had
obvious restrictions: according to article 18, paragraph 1 of the TEC, “every citizen of
the Union shall have the right to move and reside freely within the territory of the
Member States, subject to the limitations and conditions laid down in this Treaty and by
the measures adopted to give it effect”. This reservation refers in particular to the
legitimate interest of Member States in requesting social and financial backing before
guaranteeing residence permits, in other to protect their public funds. In similar
fashion, as Besson points out (2007), these reservations and constraints apply to all
European citizenship rights, which are guaranteed and bound by the Treaties. This has
been object of concern, since these reservations are acceptable with regard to
economic fundamental freedoms, but not in social and political matters. The difficulty
increased from the moment EU jurisprudence became more generous in guaranteeing
national limits for European citizenship rights than it should have, and allowed these
rights to be evoked as one of the four fundamental freedoms. And if it is true that the
Court of Justice started an unheard-of and much needed initiative to expand EU
citizenship rights in material and personal terms, unfortunately this development has
been counteracted by over-broad justifications to limit those rights.
The Treaty of Lisbon denotes the same intention to reinforce citizenship in the Union by
increasingly involving citizens in the construction of the EU and in its policy-making
using several mechanisms and tools (maintenance or reinforcement of those mentioned
above, and creation of others which we shall refer to and which informed our analysis).
To this effect, we believe it is of the utmost importance to understand the scope of the
concept of European citizenship and how it can truly become operational, so that the
dichotomy institutions-citizens can become a real tool for deepening interaction in the
construction of the Union, given its unique specificities. In other words, if citizenship is
a legal bond between an individual and corresponding Member State in a strict sense,
which translates into a set of rights and duties, then we need to provide a frame for
this new supranational bond between citizens and the Union, always bearing in mind
the absence of duties directly allocated to this supranational relationship, even with the
entering into force of the Treaty of Lisbon and the binding/compulsory nature of the
Charter of Fundamental Rights.
Indeed, this concept has been given considerable reflection: on the one hand, there
have been attempts to identify existing issues preventing the consolidation of European
citizenship. On the other, a sufficiently broad definition has been put forward in order to
clarify this new type of bond that overflows national borders. Nyers (cf. 2007) offers a
summary of some authors’ approaches and contributions. Gerard Delanty examines
European citizenship policy and notes some concerns related with lack of solidarity and
social justice in this citizenship emerging model. For other authors, such as Aihwa Ong,
the concern lies on knowing if the territorial notions of citizenship are still current and
relevant or if, nowadays, the concept ought to find other meanings in accordance with
the global movements that determine contemporary politics4. For Figueroa, in turn,
3 In accordance with the wording of the Treaty of Lisbon, this means the Council of Ministers.
4 Ong stresses the importance of the large urban metropolises that take on global migration flows and
theorises how these centres can become a “mutation in citizenship zone” where punishments and
rewards are distributed according with the assets that contribute to the urban economy Cf. Nyers (2007).
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citizenship involves the following: a commitment to society taking into account its
diversity; openness to and solidarity with other individuals and their differences:
acceptance of all people; rejection of any form of exploitation, discriminatory treatment
or racism (Figueroa, 2000: 57).
Faced with all these uncertainties, we must not forget, as defended by Yeatman (op.
cit.), that any debate on future European citizenship must always take into account the
complex and long-lasting relationship between sovereignty and subjectivity, between
the search for individual self-preservation and the States and other entities that aim to
legitimize their authority (where we place the EU). In other words, the concept of
citizenship will need to be reformulated, since, as Preuss pointed out, “citizenship does
not presuppose the community of which the citizen is a member, but creates this very
community” (apud Osler: 2006).
So far, the level of citizenship attainment in the Union has mostly been due (with the
exception of electoral capacity) to a mere systematization of existing rights (particularly
in what concerns freedom of movement, right to stay and right to petition). Citizenship
is now being enshrined in primary law in the name of a political project.
Contrary to what we have seen with regard to the existing concept of constitution in
European states since the proclamation of the Declaration of the Rights of Man and of
the Citizen (1789), there are no specific guarantees with regard to fundamental rights
associated with EU citizenship5. Although paragraph 2 of article 6 of the TEU states that
the “Union shall respect” fundamental rights, as guaranteed by the European
Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms, as well as
“the constitutional traditions common” to Member States as general principles of
Community law, the article does not mention the legal statute of citizenship of the
Union (with regard to the fundamental rights of the Union)6. Accordingly, despite what
is laid down in paragraph 2 of article 17 of the TEC, EU citizenship does not imply any
duties for the Union’s citizens, which is a major difference with regard to citizenship of
Member States, except the respect for Fundamental Rights and respect for citizenship
and defence of the EU, as seen earlier.
With the coming into force of the Treaty of Lisbon, we need to understand how the
Charter of Fundamental Rights, with the binding nature it has attained, and the various
forms of citizens’ direct participation in the policy-making process (especially with the
setting up of the European Citizens’ Initiative) may favour increasing engagement of
citizens in European integration. In other words, how can these mechanisms effectively
potentiate the defence of citizens and active citizenship which, according to Hoskins’
definition, implies involvement in civil society, in the community and/or political life
characterised by mutual respect and non-violence, in accordance with human rights
and democracy (Hoskins et al., 2006). This author also aims to demonstrate the
existing heterogeneity among EU Member States, in terms of active citizenship,
according to the construction of the composite indicator7.
5 The TL changed this, as the Charter of Fundamental Rights became binding.
6 Cf. “The Citizens of the Union and Their Rights”. Fact Sheets on the European Union. [CD-ROM]
European Parliament: 2009.
7 The Active Citizenship Composite Indicator (Hoskins et al.) covers 19 European countries and is based on
63 indicators using data collected in the European Social Survey of 2002. The theoretical framework used
to construct the active citizenship composite indicator was developed – in cooperation with the Council of
Europe – by a team of European experts and presented at an international conference in Ispra in
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Figure 1 – Active Citizenship Composite Indicator
Source: Hoskins et al. (2006)
In addition, evaluating the capacity and will of each Member State to participate in
advancing this ongoing political experimentation project will also be important, as it
requires a much shared interdependence and the establishment of institutional
agreements in the face of contestation and conflicts within a community made up of
communities. Due to their adhesion to the EU, the actual Member States are forced to
question the concepts of sovereignty and citizenship, and accept the impact of Europe
on their own organization, institutions and policies, and the fact that community
political decisions will not necessarily reflect their national interests.
1. European citizenship in the Treaty of Lisbon
The concept of citizenship, based on the definition of former treaties, is explicitly laid
down in article 9 of the Treaty of Lisbon (TL), which states that “in all its activities, the
Union shall observe the principle of the equality of its citizens, who shall receive equal
attention from its institutions, bodies, offices, and agencies. Every national of a Member
State shall be a citizen of the Union. Citizenship of the Union shall be additional to
national citizenship and shall not replace it” (our underlining)
September 2006. The authors established several items organized around four major dimensions,
namely: political life, civil society, community life, and values. As the constructed indicator shows, we
see a heterogeneous Europe where Nordic countries lead and Southern countries have positive
performances with regard to values and political life, and negatives ones concerning civil society and
community life. According to this indicator, the top five countries are: Sweden, Norway, Denmark,
Austria, and Belgium. At the bottom of the list are Italy, Portugal, Greece, Hungary, and Poland.
However, the five best positioned countries do not have the highest points in the 4 dimensions. The
same applies to the least well-placed. For instance, Poland has one of the highest performances in the
values dimension, while Portugal is halfway the table in the same dimension.
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The TL also consecrates the fundamental principles of democratic equality, of
representative democracy (article 10)8 and of participatory democracy. As an example
of the intention to promote participatory democracy, the Treaty proposes a new
interaction mechanism – in fact, article 11, paragraph 4, introduces a new right for
citizens of the Union: “Not less than one million citizens who are nationals of a
significant number of Member States may take the initiative of inviting the European
Commission, within the framework of its powers, to submit any appropriate proposal on
matters where citizens consider that a legal act of the Union is required for the purpose
of implementing the Treaties”.
Accordingly, the European Citizens’ Initiative (ECI) becomes one of the most important
innovations brought about by the TL in terms of citizenship. In addition to the
previously proposed interaction mechanisms with institutions and bodies, of which the
European Parliament and the Ombudsman stand out, respectively, it aims to strengthen
citizens’ capacities to pro-actively participate in the Union’s policy-making process.
Apart from the ECI novelty, the Charter of Fundamental Rights became binding in
2009, which attests the aim to make Europe a more uniform union in social terms. The
ECI and the binding nature of the Charter are two examples we shall now analyze in
greater depth in terms of building a European identity.
2. The Charter of Fundamental Rights and the European Convention for
the Protection of Human Rights
In order to enshrine civil, political, economic, and social rights, the Treaty of Lisbon
also made the Charter of Fundamental Rights binding9, conferring it the same legal
standing as that of the Treaties, listing rights, freedoms and guarantees. As Isabel
Camisão explained “… it is an advance in the protection of the rights of European
citizens…” and has the “advantage of enabling European citizens to have a better
understanding of the guarantees that stem from their status as citizens of the Union.”
(www.ieei.pt, 22.12.09). It confirms the Union’s adhesion to the European Convention
for the Protection of Human Rights, whose fundamental rights become part of the legal
system.
The Charter of Fundamental Rights (CFR) was not directly incorporated into the Treaty
of Lisbon, but became legally binding under the terms of paragraph 1 of article 6 of the
Treaty on the European Union, which confers the Charter the same legal value as the
Treaties. As stated in the Charter, it does not increase the competences of the Union as
set out in the Treaties. The Charter has a protocol announcing specific measures for the
United Kingdom and Poland, listing exceptions to the Charter’s legal binding nature in
the national courts of those countries.
The EU shall adhere to the European Convention as soon as the 14th protocol of the
ECPHR comes into force, which will enable both states and international organisations
to become signatories of the ECPHR. However, the adhesion act must be ratified by all
EU Member States.
8 According to article 10, paragraph 3 “every citizen shall have the right to participate in the democratic
life of the Union. Decisions shall be taken as openly and as closely as possible to the citizen”.
9 The Member States had already signed the Charter in 2000.
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The CFR10 consecrates all the civil, political, economic and social rights of all Union
citizens. It is a set of rights, freedoms and guarantees that decisively contributes to the
consolidation of the concept of European Citizenship, representing a synopsis of
common values of Member States of the Union. The Charter aims to promote human
dignity, illustrate the fundamental rights of European citizens, show the intellectual and
legal foundations of the Union and present it as a rule of law community of values. This
document ensures that all European institutions shall respect those fundamental rights
and guarantee they will be respected by all.
The Cologne European Council, which met in June 1999, deemed it convenient to bring
together the panoply of rights of all EU citizens in a single document, in order to clarify
them. For the first time in the entire judicial history of the European project, a
document encompassing all fundamental rights granted to citizens, which hitherto were
dispersed in many legal texts, was prepared, which was a real innovation. In this
fashion, the Council of Europe mandated a Convention to write a Charter project. The
EU’s Charter of Fundamental Rights was enforced in December of that same year,
presided by Roman Herzog, and included representatives 11 from national parliaments
and governments of the Member States, Euro MPs and the European Commissioner
responsible for that area. The Convention’s12 meetings were open and all the
documentation produced as a result was made available online, so that citizens could
access and follow up on the work. The method chosen to write the Charter led to a
widened debate and, subsequently, to an agreed document that was approved by a
large majority on 2 October 2000. The Biarritz European Council that met on 13-14
October unanimously approved the Charter and sent it to the European Parliament and
the European Commission, which approved it on 14 November and on 6 December,
respectively. On 7 December and at the Nice European Council, the Presidents of the
European Council, Nicole Fontaine, of the Council, Jacques Chirac, and of the
Commission, Romano Prodi, signed the Charter on behalf of their corresponding
institutions, and, accordingly, its political value was recognized. The Constitutional
Treaty13 envisaged its integral inclusion in Part II, thus making it legally binding.
The Charter is drawn from several judicial sources and is the result of existing
legislation stemming from the Treaty that established the European Union, the Treaty
on the European Union, the constitutional traditions of the 15 Member States, the 1950
Council of Europe European Convention on Human Rights and additional protocols, the
body of laws of the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg, the body of laws of
the Court of Justice of the European Communities, the 1961 European Social Charter of
the Council of Europe, the 1989 Community Charter of the Fundamental Social Rights
of Workers, the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child, the Statute of the
International Criminal Court, among others. The Charter has 54 articles divided into 6
chapters: dignity, freedom, equality, solidarity, citizenship, and justice.
10 This is the most recent declaration on fundamental rights worldwide, and the first of the new millennium.
11 The Portuguese government was represented by Euro MP Teresa Almeida Garrett, by MP Maria Eduarda
Azevedo, and by Pedro Bacelar de Vasconcelos and Miguel de Serpa Soares (substitutes).
12 There were public audiences with representatives of the civil society, and this generated over 1500
proposals on the contents of the Charter. National parliaments also started consultation processes,
parliamentary debates and collected opinions on the wording of the Charter.
13 It was signed on 29 October 2004, but has not yet come into force.
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The intention was not to write a European Constitution nor formulate a new set of
rights, let alone transfer responsibilities from the Member States to the Union14. The
aim was to clarify existing legislation. The objective of the Charter is to certify
individual fundamental rights, explain that European Institutions and States are bound
by citizens’ fundamental rights when promoting and enforcing the law of the Union and
in negotiations with candidate or third party countries, strengthen the idea that the
European Union has always been an area for shared values and rights, and protect
citizens from power abuse on the part of the state. There was equally a concern for
current challenges, and importance was paid to bioethics, data protection and the
environment, and consumer protection. Attention was drawn to the importance of
putting an end to racial, sexual, skin colour, and religious discrimination. The Charter is
a major interpretation instrument that assists the European Court of Justice in its work.
The Charter of Fundamental Rights was solemnly proclaimed on 12 December 2007 in
Strasbourg by the Presidents of European institutions. It was not directly incorporated
into the Treaty of Lisbon, but became legally binding under the terms of paragraph 1 of
article 8 of the TEU, which confers the Charter the same legal value as the Treaties. As
stated in this document, it does not expand the competences of the Union established
in the Treaties. The Charter comes with a protocol that introduces specific procedures
for the United Kingdom and Poland, which anticipate exceptions to the legally binding
nature of the Charter with regard to the national courts in those countries. The Treaty
of Lisbon confirmed the support of the Union for the European Convention for the
Protection of Human Rights, whose fundamental rights became part of the legal body of
laws. The EU shall adhere to the European Convention as soon as the 14th protocol of
the ECHR comes into force, allowing both states and international organizations to be
signatories of the ECHR. However, the adhesion act must be ratified by all EU Member
States.
With this Charter, European politics aimed to pass on a message of their commitment
to citizens’ rights and values to EU candidate countries, neighbouring countries and the
international community at large. The Charter of Fundamental Rights does not give the
Union new responsibilities, nor does it force Member States to change their
constitutions. Its aim is to emphasize respect for democratic values, human rights and
fundamental reasons. Accordingly, we are pleased to state that it is an inspiring
document of reference that mirrors the freedom and respect for the fundamental rights
enjoyed in the Union. As
Isabel Camisão explains, “… it has the advantage of enabling European citizens to have
a better understanding of the guarantees that stem from their status as citizens of the
Union.” (www.ieei.pt, 22.12.09). This document is a sign that the European integration
project of the last 50 years has been anchored on fundamental rights right from the
onset.
14 Change of responsibilities is a right and a function of the exclusive competence of Member States, in the
form of amendment of the Treaties.
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3. The European Citizens Initiative (EIC) – article 11, paragraph 415
The introduction of the EIC attests the decision expressed in the TL to encourage
citizens’ engagement with institutions and, in this case, specifically with the European
Commission, since the practice of publically consulting the civil society no longer
produced effective results16. Article 11, paragraph 4, introduced a new mechanism for
the promotion of active citizenship in the Union, stating that at least one million of EU
citizens and nationals from a significant number of Member States could take the
initiative to invite the European Commission, in the context of its competences, to
present a proposal on matters the citizens believed a legal act from the Union was
necessary to enforce the Treaties. The procedures and conditions for taking the
initiative are set out in the first paragraph of article 24 of the Treaty on the Functioning
of the European Union, but they still await regulation17.
However, and despite this mechanism, several practical issues remain open, and
answers need to be given rapidly to make it effective and not become a wasted
opportunity rendering the wording on the treaty meaningless. For instance, what is
meant by a “significant number of countries”? How many signatures are necessary from
each country? What is the minimum age of participants and who is in charge of
checking their signatures? Who should submit the initiative in the end? Is the
Commission obliged to reply or take the initiative? Alternatively, if it agrees with the
relevance of the matter it was presented with, can it make any changes to the citizens’
request? In short, what is the citizens’ real capacity to carry out an ECI?
As the above shows, some practical aspects of the citizens’ initiative still need to be
defined, and the European Commission has tried to collect the necessary information in
order to regulate the initiative, so as to establish the minimum rules and procedures.
To that effect, and as the ECI should be regulated by the end of 2010, the Commission
launched a public consultation18 to gather opinions from the citizens before concluding
works on the matter.
The Green Book and the public consultation posed key questions that aimed to define
the practical issues before carrying out the ECI:
- minimum number of Member States from which citizens must come;
- minimum number of signatures per Member State;
- minimum age of signatories;
15 For purposes of clarification and standardisation, we have used the numbering shown in the consolidated
versions of the Treaties published in the Official Journal of the EU C115, on 9 May 2008, since the
version of the Treaty of Lisbon published on 17 December 2007 has a different numbering.
16 The European Commission has set up an electronic area exclusively for the consultation of topics under
discussion in the European agenda by the civil society, with the aim of obtaining citizens’ feedback on
those matters, and involve them in decision-making processes. Cf.
http://ec.europa.eu/yourvoice/consultations/index_en.htm.
Another example of good practice was the Commission’s creation of several thematic fora (also online)
where citizens can ask questions and debate issues common to all Member States, and try to influence
decision-making processes, as well as negotiations with non-EU countries with regard certain
partnerships, citizens’ rights, etc. The Citizens’ Energy Forum is an example of this. It was launched
by the Commission in collaboration with national and European consumers’ associations, representatives
of Member States, and of the Energy Community, among others, and its main goal is to protect
consumers’ interests when drafting policies and ensure consumers’ rights are respected when
implemented.
17 The ECI is due to be regulated at the end of 2010 and to come into force in 2011.
18 Cf. Green Book on the ECI, of the European Commission– public consultation carried out until 31 January
2010.
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- form and wording of a citizens' initiative;
- requirements for the collection, verification and authentication of signatures;
- time limit for the collection of signatures;
- registration of proposed initiatives;
- requirements for organisers - transparency and funding;
- time limit for the Commission’s response;
- what to do should there be several initiatives on the same issue.
As seen, the scope and efficacy of the ECI cannot be accurately measured, given that it
cannot be enforced yet, and we still do not know if this mechanism will actually
translate into increased proximity and involvement of citizens in the policy making of
the EU. In fact, the complexity of the requirements for carrying out and validating an
ECI may have a counter effect and keep citizens further away, leaving the capacity for
preparing these initiatives in the hands of associations and/or social movements that
may, on occasions, be more focused on attaining their specific goals and relegate the
common and community good to second place.
Final considerations
The renewed Lisbon Strategy (Strategy 2020) and the Treaty of Lisbon brought social
cohesion into the centre of the European political agenda. European citizenship is a
crucial aspect of the entire strategy, focusing on values, representative democracy and
civil society. However, before being able to evaluate the importance of European
citizenship and its real impact in the process of deepening integration, we need to know
if citizens actually feel citizens of the Union and wish to be involved in that process. In
other words, we need to ascertain if we can refer to a cohesion capacity that
corresponds to a European identity.
It is obvious that divergences and opposing interests will persist for a long time in this
Europe with 27 member states, as well as within national societies. Accordingly, the
real Europe is a long and major learning and experimentation process at a continent’s
level, with all the difficulties and resistances that it implies (cf. Ribeiro, 2009).
Having access to the information made available by European institutions and entities
does not mean a matching adhesion of citizens to that information, nor the existence of
a better informed, proactive society concerned with European integration. Indeed,
talking of European society implies talking of national citizenship first, and of the
capacity each country has to train citizens more concerned and involved in the
community.
To this effect, higher education entities play a crucial role in the training of young
citizens who are interested about the decision-making process that will influence our
presence in society. It is necessary to create areas where young people may find the
answers to their queries and which offer them a better understanding of the European
Union they belong to, which has become the area where their employment
opportunities, competitiveness and natural competition naturally are. It will only be
through investment in training anchored on values such as citizenship, volunteer work
and accountability, that we will have citizens contributing more actively to the
deepening of European integration. That is, bringing citizens closer to the integration
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process is underpinned by active citizenship and the states’ capacity to promote and
strengthen the importance of their social capital.
Like Robert Putman affirms, active citizenship is strongly related to “civic involvement”,
which plays a fundamental role in the formation of social capital. The search for
common objectives offers a way for people to experience “reciprocity” and helps create
networks anchored on shared values. The high levels resulting from social trust leads to
increased cooperation among people and reduces the chances of anti-social behaviour
(Putnam, 2000).
Any future debate on this topic will need to underline the importance of adopting a
process based on a reflective approach to the study of European citizenship. This
means that instead of attempting to establish the supremacy of a particular level of
premeditated or unpremeditated standardised citizenship backed by ideological
influences (cf. Kostakopoulou, 2007), the most important is to start with the
presupposition that the EU and national citizenships are interdependent and examine
their interaction and gradual transformation.
The Treaty of Lisbon attests the will to turn an economy-based Europe into a Europe of
Citizens, a Social Europe that aims to transmit the sense of belonging to a
supranational entity. In fact, European citizenship made us rethink the “impossible” and
look for a new model that grants citizens ways to fight discrimination, exclusion and the
inability to find a job, and achieve individual and collective stability. Perhaps this is the
way to redefine the concept of citizenship and simultaneously answer current issues,
making the EU more competitive and a leader in training and citizenship.
If the main objective of European citizenship, as a supranational concept, is to reinforce
the protection of EU citizens’ rights and interests, and also strengthen and consolidate
the identity of Europe by creating a set of rights and duties enabling increased
engagement of citizens in the integration process, such as the right to residence as a
fundamental right, political participation, diplomatic and consular protection, petition
right, among others, the need to initiate and disseminate that sense of belonging to the
community becomes the key point of the debate. Accordingly, it is necessary to identify
methodologies to fortify that supranational citizenship.
European citizenship can only be reinforced after national citizenship at each member
state has been strengthened through the training of better informed citizens concerned
about the community they belong to “… all young people acquire the competencies
required for personal autonomy and for citizenship, to enter the world of work and
social life, with a view to respecting their identity, openness to the world and social and
cultural diversity. (UNESCO, 2004: 3).
To that effect, we need to implement the mechanisms set out in the Treaties. Following
the voting at the European Parliament in December 2010, the Council adopted the
regulations on the European Citizens’ Initiative on 15 February 2010. Accordingly, the
ECI will be enforced as from the end of March of 2012.
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OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
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EUROPE’S FIGHT FOR SPACE – A NEW CHALLENGE
Ana Baltazar
Major at the Portuguese Air Force and Professor at the Institute of High Military Studies (IESM).
She holds a postgraduate qualification leading to the Master Degree in Peace and War Studies in
New International Relations (UAL) and a graduate Diploma in Project Management (Catholic
University).She completed the Air War General Course (IESM) and the High Joint Command
Course (IESM). She has acted as Deputy for Logistics on the Air Force High Command, as
Manager of the Aircraft Instruction Acquisition Program. She represented the Portuguese Air
Force at OGMA, SA, and Planned the modification of F-16 aircrafts.
Abstract
The present article examines the challenge Europe faces with regard to space exploration. It
advances some technical concepts associated with space exploration and key concepts for our
understanding of International Relations – particularly Astropolitics - in a milieu that many see
as placatory, but where competition and cooperation go hand in hand, and where military and
civilian capacities are often blurred.
Indeed, on the one hand space has its specific characteristics – natural resources, artificial
resources (for instance, satellites), dimension, and range with regard to the earth – which
makes it a target for commercial and military dispute and may lead to inevitable escalating
space armament. On the other hand, there is a need for cooperation and agreement to enable
the development of extremely complex technology, which requires vast human, material, and
financial resources.
Whether associated with military space capacities or civil space capacities, one observes that
today’s e dependence on those resources leads to the need to ensure their security. Control of
space, the same as with control of sea, land, and air resources, can be vital to guarantee
national security, in the first place, and, consequently, international security. How the
European Union is doing it, or will be able to do it, is included in the study undertaken in the
present essay. To this effect, it is necessary to know Europe’s space capacities, policies and
strategies.
The following question is raised at the end of this article: How does Europe’s space
exploration interfere with international security?
Keywords
Competition; Cooperation; Space; Security; European Union
How to cite this article
Baltazar, Ana (2011). "Europe’s fight for space – a new challenge”. JANUS.NET e-journal of
International Relations, Vol. 2, N.º 1, Spring 2011. Consulted [online] on date of last visit,
observare.ual.pt/janus.net/en_vol2_n1_art3.
Article received in April 2010 and accepted for publication in May 2011
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EUROPE’S FIGHT FOR SPACE – A NEW CHALLENGE
Ana Baltazar
Introduction
The present article is part of a master degree dissertation I completed in 2009 with the
same title. Besides studying the European Union (EU), the thesis looked at the most
prominent countries’ policies and capacities in space technology development: China,
Russia, and the USA. Technical concepts associated with the topic were equally
addressed, such as the notion of astropolitics, space strength and power, dual use, and
threat.
“Europe’s Fight for Space – A New Challenge“invites reflection because it is a fact that,
nowadays, contemporary societies depend on space resources and on their
applications. Increasingly, more countries have satellites built and launched by third
parties. In general, those satellites have civil and military multiple functions, ranging
from facilitating communications and weather forecasting, to obtaining concrete
information for navigation purposes. This awareness of dependence on resources
required major powers, in particular, to think about space security. During the last
conflicts, space resources have had a major influence on military operations. This
influence is basically felt at the level of decision-making time and military response,
making everything – decisions/actions – quicker.
During conflicts, available space resources are typically plentiful and quite varied, of
which the following stand out: weather forecast systems: military communication
systems; surveillance systems; weapon positioning and missile launching satellites; and
positioning systems, among others. For the Armed Forces, satellites are power
multipliers and essential tools serving the “Command, Control, Communications,
Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance” (C4ISR).
As this article illustrates, having capacity brings on power, and to have power brings on
capacities to influence decisions on the international stage. However, having the
resources and lacking the capacity to defend them may translate into extreme
vulnerability. Accordingly, space resources gain strategic importance as they may both
offer essential and unique information and put national security at risk.
Therefore, the space issue has a civil element (connected with the distinct aspects of
world security, the well-being of the population, and the scientific development of
humanity) and a military dimension (supporting defence and a high number of military
operations) that often merge in terms of dual use.
The topic “Europe’s Fight for Space – a New Challenge“ is examined precisely
around those points. This challenge Europe is facing is analysed in terms of
opportunities/advantages at distinct levels: economic, military and political. It must be
stressed that this article focuses mostly on the EU as a whole and on its global policies
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framed by the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), and not on each country’s
individual policies. A SWOT analysis – management tool meaning Strengths,
Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats - was carried out to assess the capacities of the
EU.
The research method used was that advanced by Luc Van Champenhoudt and Raymond
Quivy (Quivy, 2005) for the Social Sciences. The reflection behind this article aimed to
answer the Initial Question: How does Europe’s space exploration interfere with
international security?
1. Space
a. Definition of Space
To define or delimit land and sea environments – or even air space with regard to the
former two – was simple, insofar as the separation is physically perceptible. When it
comes to space, the situation is quite different, to the extent that the international
community has not yet agreed on the definition of outer space (or sidereal space). This
is mostly due to the fact that it has not been possible to distinguish between air space
and outer space. However, it is important to have an internationally acknowledged
concept, as there are issues associated both with security and the sovereignty of
countries.
In terms of space definition, the present article adopts a definition which, albeit not
formally accepted1, is the one that attracts largest consensus among the scientific
community, and which was coined by Von Karman (Chun, 2006: 14) in 1957: space
starts at the height of 100km (already in the Thermosphere) above the surface of the
earth. Accordingly, it is above the Von Karman line that the several types of orbits
started to be defined, which are called as follows (Dolman, 2006: 65): LEO (Low Earth
Orbit), MEO (Medium Earth Orbit), HAO (High Altitude Orbit), and HEO (Highly Elliptical
Orbit).
Knowledge of orbits and orbital mechanics is crucial, given that, after objects have
been placed on stable orbits, they practically require no fuel or power in order to stay
there (apart from some power to be able to correct the orbit in the presence of
disturbances).
b. Objects in Space
As mentioned previously, and although we are still at an embryonic stage of knowledge
of space potentialities, various forms of space exploration already exist, and precious
information obtained from devices placed in space is equally used. This information is
acquired from several types of equipment, ranging from satellites to space probes and
manned space stations.
With regard to satellites, it can be said that they can be any type of object orbiting the
Earth or any other planet. Satellites can be of two sorts: natural and artificial. The
former are celestial bodies, of which the moon is the best known: the latter are
1 The doubt favours a certain degree of political and legal flexibility with regard to the flying of space
objects over the air space (or not) of another nation.
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manufactured and put into orbit by humans. Generally speaking, an artificial satellite is
an information transfer vehicle.
On 31 December 2007, there were 3.2082 identified satellites in orbit from a wide
variety of countries (Portugal only has one entirely its own, launched in 1993 and
currently inoperative), with Russia having the highest number (42%), followed by the
USA (31%). Europe only has 7% of satellites (MEHURON, 2009: 60).
Probes (a total of 119) are unmanned space shuttles with the mission of, for instance,
exploring other planets. Here the USA has the highest number (51%), followed by
Russia (29%) and by Europe (7%) (MEHURON, 2009: 60).
Space stations are structures transported into space by other means, devised to have
human beings on board. The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) was the first
country to develop this type of programmes in the 1970s, namely with the Salyut. The
International Space Station has been in space since October 2000, and on 15 June
2010, it completed its twenty fourth journey (carrying on board one Russian and two
North-Americans).
Besides the objects referred to above, there is also a large number of objects known as
space debris (about 30.342 objects have been identified3). These objects are crucial,
because they can cause serious damage to orbiting satellites and stations, and to
astronauts. One of the ways satellites can protect themselves, to some extent, from
space debris is to use protection shields. However, these measures make satellites
heavier and more expensive.
c. Treaties
From a juridical viewpoint, and as opposed to air space, space is open to everyone
(Couteau-Begarie, 2003: 865).
The United Nations (UN) has been working intensely, in terms of framing legislation, on
issues related with space use, with particular emphasis on attempts for non-
militarisation of the area. The Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, with
headquarters in Vienna, is the only body working on that legislation. Since its inception,
it has completed five legal instruments and five sets of regulatory principles on, for
instance, appropriation of outer space and arms control activities (UNOOSA, 2007).
Generally speaking, all of these instruments promote the idea that research and
activities in space, or space-related, must be carried out in collaboration with other
nations and from a general well-being stance.
The Outer Space Treaty (OST) was the first treaty to act as a reference for the legal
analysis of space activities. It sets out the core legal principles and prohibitions
pertaining to space. The two first articles establish the basic structure, stating that
nations have the freedom to undertake scientific research in outer space, and that
space and outer celestial bodies (such as the moon) are no one’s property. Articles 3
and 4 basically limit space military activities. The treaty legislates that the moon and
similar celestial bodies can only be used for peaceful ends, and cannot be equipped
2 Not all of them are necessarily operational.
3 “SATCAT Boxscore” http://www.celestrak.com/satcat/boxscore.asp acceded on 8 June 2010.
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with military bases or used for arms testing. However, they can be used for scientific
research or peaceful exploration (UNOOSA, 2002).
d. Astropolitics
Astropolitics is a relatively recent concept that relates outer space and related
technology with the development of political, military and strategic guidelines (Dolman,
2006: 15).
This article follows the astropolitical model proposed by the North American military
strategist Everett C. Dolman, for whom astropolitics is a major strategy that is not just
limited to the enforcement of military force, encompassing also diplomacy, propaganda,
secret operations, information, and economic transactions (Dolman, 2006: 146). The
earth is reduced to being a single part of a total approach which, albeit important, in
some cases is just a peripheral part (Dolman, 2006: 1) with important astropolitical
characteristics (Dolman, 2006: 61): its mass, orbit and interactions with other
phenomena. According to Dolman, humanity is entering the age whereby technology,
communications, innovation, and the exploration of outer space are the routes to
prosperity and abundance. His thesis is a realistic approach that maximizes space
prospecting and exploration for the benefit of everyone, reversing the international
trend of mistrust in space exploration (Dolman, 2006: 183).
This author also defends that the militarisation of space by a military force that is
recognized, non-arbitrary, efficient and able to keep its effective control may, on the
one hand, and by means of discouragement, prevent a space arms race; on the other
hand, given that military space programmes are the backbone of many civilian space
operations (for instance, launching capacity), they foster economic advantages in fields
such as telecommunications, navigation and weather satellites (Dolman, 2006: 162).
The author affirms that astropolitics is divided into four interrelating astropolitical
regions (Dolman, 2006: 69): earth, earth space, lunar space, and solar space.
According to this model, it is possible to predict a power relationship in search of world
supremacy. Those who are able to control astropolitical regions will be in a position to
use economic coercion measures that are relevant in some related fields, such as
commercial routes or the control of resources, or those of a military nature, with regard
to operations on earth. In more recent conflicts, controlling communication,
observation and location satellites allowed North Americans and allies to have an
advantage in the operations carried out.
2. Europe
a. Europe’s Space Strategy
Europe has recognised that space has an important strategic dimension (ESDA, 2008).
Space resources are military centres of gravity that need to be protected, inasmuch as
they are potential targets. An attack on the space system of a particular country may
render its armed forces blind, deaf and mute. However, the EU is not in a position (and
not particularly interested in it) to have a predominant role in space. Accordingly, arms
control is not a viable option, given the costs associated with it and the polemics it
would generate internally. Therefore, and due to the fact it might fall prey of arms
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control by other countries, on 3 December 2008 the Council of the European Union
publicly announced a draft document on space code of conduct it intends to present to
other world nations. Basically, the EU aims to render space weapons free, thus
becoming a pioneer in how to address this issue. This document also refers to the
importance of space technology for the development of economies, societies and the
culture of nations. Nonetheless, it is acknowledged that space capacities are vital for
national security and for the maintenance of peace and international security.
Accordingly, it calls upon international agreements to, among other things, guarantee
the following: influence the safe and peaceful use of space with established rules – as
long as it is used for peaceful means – ensuring freedom of access to space; preserve
the safety and integrity of space objects in orbit.
This initiative aims to demonstrate that Europe is an important strategic player in
space-related issues. It is hoped that this will be a viable option, but it will be so only if
major space powers accept it, which will not be easy. This code aims, among other
things, to regulate anti-satellite tests and the production of space debris.
b. Europe’s space capacity
France was responsible for the launching of 122 (Figure A) of the 376 commercial
satellites currently in orbit, that is, 32% (33% were launched by Russia and 24% by
the USA). According to Figure A, there were also military (11%) and governmental
(10%) satellite launches. These launches – mostly (89%) in GEO – were carried out at
the Guiana Space Centre using various types of Ariane launchers.
Figure A – Satellites launched by France
Source: (UCS, 2009)
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With regard to satellites owned by EU countries - not necessarily launched or produced
by them - 114 satellites out of a total of 888 are currently operational. Most of these
satellites are in LEO (43.9%) and GEO (45.6 %), orbits, while a small number are in
MEO (2.6%) and HEO (7.9%) orbits (Figure B).
Figure B – European satellites launched by class of orbit
Source: (UCS, 2009)
Figure C shows that, generally speaking, it is from 1999 onwards that satellites not
exclusively of the commercial type started to be most widely used. Strictly commercial
satellites in operation continue to be the highest in number (42%). However, after that
date there has been a wider diversity of applications, of which the 21% that are strictly
military stand out, belonging for the most part to the United Kingdom, France and
Germany (for communication, surveillance, reconnaissance and ELINT purposes).
Figure C – European satellites launched, by all types of users
Source: (UCS, 2009)
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Of those European 114 satellites in operation, only 15 (between 1990 and 2009) belong
to the European Space Agency (ESA) or are owned in partnership (a research satellite
launched into HEO with China, a scientific one launched into LEO with the USA, and a
space physics satellite launched into HEO with the USA and Russia). As Figure D
indicates, they are basically governmental ones, and none is military.
Figure D – Satellites belonging to ESA
Source: (UCS, 2009)
The analysis of Europe’s space capacities shows duplication of efforts on the part of
European countries, with some of them even conducting autonomous development
policies, which leads to duplication in some areas, particularly with regard to
observation and communication satellites
c. SWOT analysis
This paragraph presents a SWOT analysis of EU’s space technology, based on the
contents of previous paragraphs and on the dissertation that generated the present
article.
1) Strengths
Political ambition:
− Gain and maintain independent access to space
− Have influence on the international space arena
EDA/ESA Partnerships
Broad range of programmes, with associated predominance of high
technologies:
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− Scientific
− Meteorological
− Navigation (Galileo)
− Environmental (Global Monitoring and Environmental Security - GMES)
Own launching station at the French Guiana
Competitive in the commercial sector
Capacity for meteorological monitoring and environmental control
Space industry
2) Weaknesses
Asymmetric capacities among the various countries (France and Germany stand
out from the rest)
Lack of capacity to carry out manned space missions
Not competitive in the launching sector
Absence of an European identity
Absence of doctrine on European Space Security
European countries have autonomous space programmes
Diverse and diverging interests interfere on decisions about joint projects (for
instance, early-warning mechanisms)
Economic capacity/investment
Public acceptability of investments associated with dual-use space programmes
3) Opportunities
International affirmation:
− Prestige
− Credibility
− Intervention on world political decisions
Control of other countries’ capacities by cooperating with them
Technological and economic development
Dual-use technologies
Complementarity of capacities and information
Galileo project
Partnerships through:
− Cost sharing
− Knowledge sharing
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− Information sharing
Foster global economy
Employment in the space sector
4) Threats
Dual-use thanks to control difficulties
Technological dependence on third parties
Dependence on access to information
Unawareness of the intentions of some of the players
Armament capable of destroying space resources
Space debris
Knowledge transfer to potential commercial or political opponents
Difficulty in attaining world agreement on early-warning mechanisms
China, Russia and the USA in commercial (competition) and security terms
(chance of control and destruction of space capacities)
The SWOT analysis leads us to conclude that to have space power, that is, to have the
space resources that act as multipliers for existing forces, will give the EU the capacity
to influence other international players, namely in such important issues as the
regulation of space activities. In addition, to have space power may turn Europe into a
gravity centre capable of attracting major partners in terms of cooperation, thus
increasing the capabilities and feasibility of new projects. In order to address
challenges involving space, Europe may bring together several issues that will
guarantee diplomatic, economic, military, and cultural advantages, namely: have
access to space, be competitive, have global navigation systems, have the means to
explore space, have space scientific capacity, and capacity to manage space traffic.
With regard to security, there are, in fact, two types of possible threats: on the one
hand, non-intentional ones (incidents and accidents provoked by, for instance, space
debris); on the other, space armament. As it develops its space capacities and
potential, the EU can and ought to be influential in the international space policy debate
to ensure a peaceful environment in space.
3. Dispute over Space
a. The European challenge
The study of space challenge facing the EU can be done from several viewpoints,
namely military, economic and political.
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Military viewpoint
Guaranteeing that existing space military systems are safe and serve the needs they
are intended for is not an objective one hundred per cent attainable, but is definitely a
challenge because of its relevance. This is even more so when the threat is
unpredictable due to the variety of situations that may lead to damage or loss of those
systems. Early-warning systems capable of detecting any type of threat may be one of
the means to prevent or control those situations. It is equally necessary to ensure the
existence of alternatives, for instance, in case a blackout in the systems used by the
military forces should take place.
From a military perspective, the EU should, as much as possible, foster cooperation in
military space technology development. Internal cooperation allows cost reduction, and
external cooperation guarantees, besides a reduction in costs, the sharing of
technology and knowledge of what others – sometimes opponents or competitors – are
developing. Thus, within an organisation where there is no interest whatsoever in
encouraging conflict, it is through military cooperation that, to some extent, other
players can be kept in control. This stance, as long as it is well coordinated, may serve
the interests of the EU in its security and defence policies, materialized in the European
Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) and in the missions the latter carries out,
particularly in conflicts outside its area, where the support of space resources is
determinant for the accomplishment of the mission, of which supporting the C4ISR
figures prominently.
Economic viewpoint
The EU’s approach is more market oriented. Space technology plays a key role in the
development of the national economy, for which reason it should be included in EU’s
ambitions. As referred to previously, space programmes lead to technological
development which, in turn, fosters industrialization, the latter encouraging economic
development. Making the space sector competitive is an objective of the EU and of
some of the countries that comprise it. This can be achieved through cooperation with
other countries, but market niches should be found to guarantee that Europe can make
a difference.
It is equally important to ensure budgets that support complex projects and to secure
the agreement of EU countries. Therefore, it should look out for projects that are
necessary for the organization and that are feasible within the time frame and the costs
agreed at the outset. This challenge also involves the credibility of the EU in the
international order.
Political viewpoint
The first political challenge the EU has to address is to bring together the individual
policies of each country and produce a common space political project that is accepted
and adhered to by all, without parallel individual projects. Indeed, current trends point
to two routes: on the one hand, space policy is carried out on a national basis and is
associated with the policy of each country, the defence policy being even more
nationalistic; on the other hand, civilian space technologies have been developed
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according to a common European approach, whereby ESA has been playing a
preponderant role, as it brought to its remit a large part of the projects, coordinating
and producing them. Having a common European space policy – civilian and military –
will make it possible to increase European global capabilities; share costs, and eliminate
or avoid duplication of space systems (the same type of function but belonging to
distinct European countries). In addition, the contribution of several European
countries, with their distinct fields of knowledge and interests – strengthens the global
contribution, which means that more and better can be achieved. As a result, the EU
would be able to reduce its dependence on other players. The Galileo system is an
example of a new European competence that will free the Europeans from reliance on
the North American Global Positioning System (GPS).
Then, it will be necessary to identify what is essential and which are the minimum
capacities the EU believes it should have in space in terms of security and defence.
There is no doubt that the EU must have independent means to, at least, be able to
communicate, observe, locate, obtain information, and early-warning. Space
technologies must be seen as decisive means of political support in the international
stage, where investment in technology may denote independent decision and capacity
control.
b. International Security
This article demonstrates that space security needs are connected with space
technology. Whereas space resources should be used to protect the population,
resources and territories, they also have the purpose of maintaining actual
technological structures (on Earth and in Space). These systems offer extremely
versatile solutions at an international level. Nowadays, societies depend on those
solutions in distinct ways, which makes protecting them a matter of national security
and, in the case of Europe, of European security. In effect, the space sector helps
define the EU’s concept of security, both in terms of its contribution to the security of
citizens and of the path one wants to take in technological development.
In its documents on space technology, the EU’s approach is more civilian oriented than
military. The actual ESA stated, from the onset, that its mission has peaceful purposes.
The European security policy is based on the principle of “helping to ensure security
and defend stability”. In turn, this goes hand in hand with the political orientation of
non-aggression in technology use. However, it is thanks to initiatives like the Global
Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES), which gives priority to the general
security of citizens, that European space policy – in its civilian facet – is brought closer
to Europe’s defence. This type of development shows how new space technologies
represent a new stride in the political process where, besides increasing capacities, a
new common political project is being fostered.
It is a fact that European governments need to have new military capacities to be able
to meet all the objectives set out by the ESDP, namely the Petersberg tasks. Space
technology may be a means of achieving it without having to develop major capacities,
that is, without the requirement to invest. With regard to space technology, the EU is
faced with three possible scenarios: firstly, it may become an active participant in the
arms race; secondly, it may play a passive role, that is, be an extra that does not
intervene whatsoever in events; thirdly, it may become the main player in the
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development of space technology and of norms advocating prevention. It seems that
the last scenario was chosen, as there have been efforts to make international
agreements regulating activities in Space. The code of conduct, for example, is
important because it may foster international cooperation, economic growth,
exploration, and, simultaneously, reduce the risk of incidents, making space safer.
In the absence of this kind of regulation, the chance of space armament increases,
satellites are exposed to higher risks and space debris expands. This type of agreement
may also facilitate the control of dual-use materials. This creates a climate of
unawareness of capacities and mistrust of countries’ intentions, which may render an
escalade in arms race inevitable. However, it is most advisable that the Europeans
demonstrate internationally that they have a position and an identity in what concerns
space security, in line with their values, objectives and policies. Nevertheless, it is
equally paramount that the role they will play is guided by the intentions expressed in
the European Security Strategy, based on multiculturalism, cooperation, diplomacy, in
the combination of military and civilian resources, and in the promotion of Rule of Law
Nations.
In fact, over the last few years, the EU has shown a serious and independent mind
about space security. This attitude stems from the awareness that, for the time being,
it does not have the means to figure prominently, in military terms, in space, and
probably it has no intention to do so. However, this does not imply it does not have
military resources in space, as some European countries have developed military
satellites (observation and telecommunication, amongst others) in the knowledge that
space weapons are not part of the EU’s strategy. A strategy leading to an arms race
would be too radical to be developed on a national basis, and too sensitive to be
developed in partnership.
Generally speaking, it is wise to protect resources, as well as to stop the propagation of
any technology that may be a potential threat to space resources. Any type of
technology that is developed to attack space resources would be extremely harmful to
the EU, given it could destroy civilian and military satellites. Nonetheless, the
development of space capacities alternative to existing ones, mostly North American, is
another contribution to security that the EU should explore. In short, to answer the
initial question “How does Europe’s space exploration interfere with
international security?” reading Figure E is hereby suggested, as it aims to
systematize the reflections proposed in this article. The objective (target) to be
attained is to maintain space’s security, in that security (at the centre of the target)
presupposes there is no possibility for space armament and that the threat posed by
space debris is reduced. Therefore, and as a result of the previous analysis, it is
suggested that EU’s strategy (arrow) for European and international space security
follows a path that is influenced by the following guidelines:
− Development of European proposals for international agreements, through the
form of Treaties, Conventions and/or Codes of Conduct that basically favour the
transparency of space activities, encourage control of space debris, and foster
partnerships;
− Identification of a common space policy accepted by all EU countries that leads to
a clear recognition of the capabilities that are to be developed and on what terms;
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− Setting out the highest possible number of partnerships with other countries and
organisations (NATO) that may contribute to increased technological knowledge and
even add to knowledge of partners’ capacities (it may reduce the risk of hidden
agendas);
− Make efforts to fund projects deemed crucial for the security of the EU and,
consequently, for international security.
Figure E – Graphic representation of space security
The four guidelines must, as a whole, confer the EU the technical robustness it needs
to have in order to, in the first place, be independent from North-American power in
technological terms: in second place, it needs to have space power. This space power
may be used as a political tool to influence the management of the future of space,
that is, space technology that supports the EU’s security and defence policies.
The conclusion that can be drawn from this article is that a space arms race and the
inherent possibility it may turn into a battle field can be avoided. Everybody as a lot to
lose, but those with the highest capacities are also the most fragile.
This may be the ideal moment to stop escalating space arms race, whose effect, while
not necessarily as lethal as others, may affect the everyday life of civilian and military
populations and surely shake international security.
Conclusions
This article has focused on the topic “Europe’s fight for space – a new challenge”.
Our readings suggest that advancement in space can pose new challenges to
International Relations, as the quest for controlling access to particular resources
SPACE SECURITY
International Agreements
Common Space Policy pacial Comum
Partnerships
Investment
Technical
Robustness
Robustness
Space Power
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increases, new commercial opportunities in space arise, which may influence the
military use of space, and as space power gains added value. In fact, history tells us
that explored and occupied frontiers by human beings have (and are), at some point
been subject to conflict. The question here is whether space will escape this trend.
The research behind the present article started from the presupposition that space is a
challenging field for Europe as it aims to grow from a political and economic viewpoint.
However, like Director General António Rodotá of ESA stated in November 2001, “We
are still at the dawn of the space age”. Space exploration – although it was part of
collective imagination in the past – is effectively just over 50 years old, and is a field
that is still unknown in many ways.
Currently, to have space technology, knowing how to process received information and
use it, is a new source of power. Space power, through its many capacities, becomes a
power multiplier in military terms. Systems protection, information management and
processing to validate it and make it decisive are pivotal to space technology use.
Anticipating events may prevent conflicts, reduce attacks and avoid mistakes.
The EU, the key player in this study, possesses important space capacities in the
international context. However, some of them belong to countries that are part of it,
and are not effective capacities of the Union.
The distinct approach of European countries, particularly EU members, leads to
duplication of capacities and to limitations in the development of certain programmes,
due to shortage of financial resources and agreement with regard to their need. The
reason for this lies, in part, in the fact that those countries deal with their own security
independently and not as part of a global European vision.
The projects that the EU is currently undertaking – Galileo navigation system, the
GMES environmental surveillance system and space launch developing – make the EU
technologically independent from other countries. Independence is clearly beneficial in
terms of security – albeit the existence of civilian programmes – and also in economic
terms, as they foster the development and internal growth of the organisation. These
new capacities stemming from space technology strengthen the organisation in
economic terms and may confer the EU the power it needs to be influential in space-
related issues.
The current dispute is not, at least for the time being, an armed fight, but is an
economic and political dispute. The EU (or the countries it comprises) has, generally
speaking, primary goals that encourage it to invest in these technological fields, such
as: attain technological independence, develop economically, expand the capacity and
credibility of space programmes, and cooperate.
The challenge the EU has to face is how to have a common civilian and military space
policy. Subsequently, it needs to identify what is essential and decide on the strategy to
attain it.
It is through international agreements, a common European space policy,
partnerships, and funding that the EU will be in a position to contribute to a free and
peaceful space. Accordingly, like with nuclear weaponry, the effects caused by the use
of space weaponry may be excessive at a time when scientific exploration is still more
important than military exploration.
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OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
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Vol. 2, n.º 1 (Spring 2011), pp. 44-52
NATO'S NEW STRATEGIC CONCEPT: A CRITICAL VIEW
Rafael Calduch Cervera
He is a Full Professor in International Law and International Relations, and Director of the Faculty
of Information Sciences (Universidad Complutense de Madrid), Director of the Complutense Institute
of International Studies and a member of the Governing Council of the Universidad Complutense de
Madrid. He has held various academic positions, including that of Professor “Jean Monnet” in the EU
Institutions Course, Director of the Master Degree in International Relations and Communication,
Director of the Specialised Course in International Information on Southern Countries (Universidad
Complutense de Madrid), and Area Coordinator for Central and Eastern Europe in the Master offered
by the Centre for Advanced Defence Studies (CESEDEN). He is a Doctor in Political and Economic
Science (Universidad Complutense de Madrid). He was awarded the honour “Cruz al Mérito
Aeronáutico con distintivo blanco” ("Cross of Aeronautical Merit with white emblem”).
Abstract
The changes that followed the adoption of the previous NATO's strategic concept in 1999 forced a
review of its goals, threats and risks, as well as a new look at the capabilities of the organization
at a time dominated by the economic crisis and cuts in its members’ defence budgets.
On this occasion, the development of a strategic concept begun with a proposal made by a
commission of experts, and a public debate which transformed the final text into a diplomatic
document, not into a true useful document capable of guiding strategic planning over the next
decade.
These differences between the goals established by the document and the actual resources
available to NATO were noted immediately with regard to the crisis management system, for
which the organization does not possess the structures and civil means. It is not clear either that
this limitation can be solved through cooperation with the EU. The involvement of NATO in the
international mission in Libya will be the first test to ascertain the validity and effectiveness of
this new strategic concept.
Keywords
NATO; New Strategic Concept; Defence; World Security, Crisis Management
How to cite this article
Cervera, Rafael Calduch (2011). "NATO’s new strategic concept: a critical view”. JANUS.NET
e-journal of International Relations, Vol. 2, N.º 1, Spring 2011. Consulted [online] on date
of last visit, observare.ual.pt/janus.net/en_vol2_n1_art4.
Article received in April 2011 and accepted for publication in May 2011
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NATO’s new strategic concept: a critical view
Rafael Calduch Cervera
45
NATO'S NEW STRATEGIC CONCEPT: A CRITICAL VIEW
Rafael Calduch Cervera
1. The need for a new strategic concept for NATO
The important changes that took place in the International Society since the Strategic
Concept was formulated at the 1999 Atlantic Council, in Washington, suggested the
revision and update of the objectives, resources, and capacities of the Alliance for the
first decades of the 21st century.1
The jihad terrorist attack on 11September 2001 in the United States, followed by the
attacks of 11 March 2004 in Spain, and on 7 July 2005 in the United Kingdom, stood
out as a major impact among the main changes leading to the formulation of the New
Strategic Concept. A revision of NATO's priorities, directly related to jihad terrorism,
already took place in the Prague Summit (2002) to discuss the threat of international
terrorism.2
It is also important to keep in mind the effect of the expansion of the Alliance to
Central and Eastern European countries, which not only translated into a significant
increase in its members, with the consequent complication of the system of decision by
consensus, but also generated a new dynamic in the relationship with Russia and
increased the importance of some existing threats, such as international organized
crime.
NATO's participation in the ISAF (International Security Assistance Force in
Afghanistan) is of no less importance and has been decisive in finding the capabilities,
as well as the limitations, of expeditionary operations the Alliance may undertake in the
years ahead.
The reappearance of piracy in new geopolitical scenarios, such as the waters of the
Indian Ocean and the coast of Somalia, have served to restore maritime security, which
had been ignored or postponed in prior strategic concepts, as one of the Alliance's
priorities.
However, by themselves, these events would not have been enough to lead to the
formulation of a new Strategic Concept. The political impulse created with the United
States Administration of President Obama and the need to make NATO’s future
compatible with the changes introduced by the Lisbon Treaty on Foreign Policy and
1 NATO's 1999 Strategic Concept is available at:
http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_27433.htm (viewed on 07/04/2011)
2 See the Declaration of the Prague Summit available at:
http://www.nato.int/docu/pr/2002/p02-127e.htm (viewed on 07/04/2011)
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Common Security, particularly in its diplomatic and military dimensions, was also
fundamental.3
All this takes place in an environment of acute international economic crisis which is
forcing Alliance governments, particularly those of hegemonic countries, to revise their
own national defence strategies, as was recently the case in the United Kingdom. 4
2. The elaboration process of the New Strategic Concept
The difference in the strategic concepts devised in 1991 and 1999 and the elaboration
process of this new concept demonstrate that the Allies were fully aware of the need to
involve public opinions in its preparation in order to guarantee the political legitimacy of
the final document, albeit at the expense of sacrificing the conceptual rigor and the
precision of contents required by this type of document.
In accordance with the position of the Alliance, the elaboration of the strategic concept
took place in three phases with occasional overlapping.
A. Reflection Phase (July 2009 – March 2010)
It included the creation of a team of 12 experts, presided by United States Ambassador
Madeleine Albright, who prepared a draft copy following comparing their initial analysis
with the opinion of experts from all allied nations at five seminars on: General
Questions; NATO Associations; Transformation of Structures, Strengths and Capacities;
Integral Approach to Crisis Management5;
B. Consultation Phase (September 2009 – March 2010)
At the same time, the team of experts consulted with all allied governments with the
goal of comparing the results of the analysis and the seminars with official positions, in
an attempt to find topics and points of agreement among all members to allow for the
preparation of its final report.
3 Texts of the European Union Treaty and the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union can be
found at: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/JOHtml.do?uri=OJ:C:2010:083:SOM:EN:HTML (viewed on
07/04/2011)
4 See A Strong Britain in an Age of Uncertainty: The National Security Strategy (2010) available at:
http://www.analisisinternacional.eu/archivo/viejos/ID13.ppdf and also Securing Britain in an Age of
Uncertainty: The Strategic Defense and Security Review (2010)
inhttp://www.analisisinternacional.eu/archivo/viejos/ID14.pdf (viewed on 07/04/2011)
5 The team of experts included: The Honorable Madeleine K. Albright (United States); Mr. Jeroen van der
Veer (The Netherlands); Ambassador Giancarlo Aragona (Italy); Ambassador Marie Gervais-Vidricaire
(Canada); The Honorable Geoff Hoon (United Kingdom); Ambassador Ümit Pamir (Turkey); Ambassador
Fernando Perpiñá-Robert Peyra (Spain); Ambassador Dr. Hans-Friedrich von Ploetz (Federal Republic of
Germany); Mr. Bruno Racine (France); Ambassador Aivis Ronis (Latvia); Professor Adam Daniel Rotfeld
(Poland); Ambassador Yannis-Alexis Zepos (Greece).
The report prepared by this group is available at:
http://www.nato.int/nato_static/assets/pdf/pdf_2010_05/20100517_100517_expertsreport.pdf (viewed
on 07/04/2011)
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C. Draft of the New Strategic Concept and final negotiation (September –
November 2010)
The report submitted by the Team of Experts and officially presented to NATO's
Secretary General served as the basis to the latter’s writing of a proposal submitted to
the governments for negotiation and, finally, to the document approved in the Lisbon
summit on 19 November 2010.6
3. Core tasks and principles
The New Strategic Concept, like previous ones, reiterates that the Alliance's ultimate
aim lies on the community of values that rules its members and which aims to defend
the principles of: individual freedom; democracy; human rights, and Rule of Law.
To this end, there are four different categories of core tasks which NATO must be able
to carry out and have an impact on:
1. Collective defence;
2. Crisis management;
3. Collaborative security;
4. The continuous process of reform, modernization, and transformation.
4. The international strategic environment: threats and risks
As in all strategic formulation, once the fundamental principles and tasks have been
determined, it becomes necessary to define the set of threats and risks the Alliance
must confront in the next few years.
As was the case with the documents mentioned above, it is recognized that the threat
of a generalized attack, of conventional or nuclear nature, against the allied nations
constitutes a very unlikely, although not impossible, scenario. Such threat is no longer
linked to the military capability of the former Soviet Union or the transition processes of
European communist countries that gave rise to the war in the Balkans.
There are four threats that were not included in previous strategic documents: cyber
attacks; missile attacks against the population or territories of allied nations; organized
delinquency and serious environmental and public health issues.
However, just as important as the new strategic threats included in this document, are
those identified in the 1999 strategic concept document and which were removed from
the current document: the collapse of political order that results in failed states; the
policies of oppressive regimes and economic chaos. It appears clear that in face of the
changes the Arab world is experiencing and the effect of the crisis on some allied
countries like Greece, the United Kingdom, Spain, and Italy or Portugal, one would
think that such omissions are not reasonable.
6 The text of the New Strategic Concept is available at:
http://www.nato.int/lisbon2010/strategic-concept-2010-eng.pdf (viewed on 07/04/2011)
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5. Means and capabilities
Once the threats the Alliance must address were identified, with more or less accuracy,
the New Strategic Concept established the means and capacities deemed essential to
carry out its main tasks.
The principal means are as follows:
1. A combination of conventional and nuclear forces;
2. Establishing strong conventional forces, mobile and deployable in defensive and
expeditionary terms;
3. The joint undertaking among allies of training, exercises, and planning and
exchange of information;
4. The participation of all allied nations in the planning of nuclear actions, the
storage of nuclear forces during peacetime, and the formulation of command,
control and consultation dispositions;
5. The cooperation with Russia and other Euro-Asian partners;
6. The planned coordination of national cyber defence capacities and the adoption of
a NATO centralized protection system against cyber attacks;
7. A coordinated analysis of terrorist attacks among allies and the adoption of
adequate military capabilities in the fight against terror.
8. The upkeep of defence requirements, despite the crisis, so that the FAS have the
necessary means to carry out the missions assigned;
9. Adoption of a general position by NATO in face of the emergence of new threats;
The availability of such means must support the development of the following Alliance
capacities:
1. The ability to maintain major joint operations concurrently with several minor
operations to guarantee collective defence and to carry out crisis management from a
strategic distance.
2. The ability to defend populations and allied territories against ballistic missile
attacks;
3. The capability of effective defence against threats and attacks with NBDR weapons;
4. The ability to prevent, detect, defend itself against and recover from cyber attacks;
5. The capability to detect and defend itself from international terrorism;
6. The ability to contribute to energy safety, including the protection of critical
infrastructures, traffic areas and supply lines;
7. The capacity to evaluate the impact of the development of new technologies on
security.
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6. Security through crisis management - An impossible task for NATO?
One of the most problematic aspects of the New Strategic Concept concerns crisis
management, identified as one of the Alliance's core tasks.
In effect, after stressing that crisis and conflicts presume a direct threat to populations
and territories of the Alliance, and that the experiences in the Balkans and Afghanistan
command the adoption of a comprehensive approach that includes prevention, post
conflict management, stability and reconstruction through the use of political, civilian,
and military means, the strategic document recognizes that NATO's superiority lies on
its military capabilities. It recognizes that the organization just aspires to reach “an
appropriate but modest civilian crisis management capability” that will allow the
Alliance's military forces to have a linking instrument with the civilian means employed
on the ground by other players and international agencies. 7
Without question, NATO lacks an adequate political-civilian structure to assume the
leadership of crisis management in its civilian and humanitarian aspects, but, above all,
to lead the stabilization and reconstruction processes that follow armed conflicts.
Neither is it likely that it will, in the short term, develop that structure with a sufficient
degree of efficacy to replace or complement the one available in the framework of the
United Nations or the European Union.
Under similar circumstances, the inclusion of this central task forces the Alliance to
collaborate with those institutions or, alternatively, to accept that humanitarian and
civilian reconstruction tasks be assigned to military forces. This second alternative
presents the risk of causing mission failure as a result of the armed forces' lack of
preparation to perform this type of tasks. This constitutes a strategic dilemma whose
consequences should have been carefully evaluated prior to its inclusion in the final
document with the clear intention of making it a politically correct document in the face
of public opinions.
7. Critical assessment of the New Conceptual Strategy in the light of
the new system of world security
An adequate assessment of this New Strategic Concept requires not only a
consideration of its content, but also a comparison with the new system of world
security, which has been developing in the last two decades, in order to evaluate its
adequacy, or lack thereof, to that system.
Since the break-up of the Soviet Union and the multinational intervention in Iraq
following the invasion of Kuwait, world security has, little by little, evolved from a
bipolar system with nuclear deterrence towards a system of collective security through
interventionism promoted by the great military powers.
7 Center for Security Studies (ETH-Zurich) - Comprehensive Approaches to International Crisis
Management.- CSS Analyses in Security Policy, vol. 3, no. 42 (October, 2008), available at:
http://kms1.iisn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/93229/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/460f9c24
-18c1-45fa-8e14-62b9c0a37682/en/css_analysen_nr42-2008_e.pdf (viewed on 07/04/2001)
Centro Internacional de Toledo para la Paz - Civilian Dimension of International Crisis Management in
Spain: Commitments, Alternatives and Advantages.- CITpax Document no.5 (February 2006). See:
http://www.fride.org/download/OTR_CrisisMang_ENG_feb06.ppdf.pdf (viewed on 07/04/2011)
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On the one hand, the increase in the number of peace missions promoted by the United
Nations which followed, which continues to enjoy political legitimacy and legal
exclusivity, has reinforced the collective dimension of world security. 8
Notwithstanding, it is also evident that the collective security of the United Nations
cannot always be applied, either because it is prevented by the veto system
preponderant in the Security Council or because countries, particularly the super
powers, are not always willing to contribute with the troops the world organization
requires.
The increase in the number and duration of peace missions has brought about the
increasing need to involve regional powers in the decision process and execution of
such missions. We often see the presence of troops from India, Brazil, Pakistan, South
Africa, Canada, Spain, The Netherlands, Portugal, and other countries in these
missions, strengthening and complementing the duties of troops from the United
States, Russia, the United Kingdom, or France.
Likewise, the geo-strategic, political and economic interests of the great powers do not
always coincide with those of the rest of the international community. In similar
circumstances, and in face of the inability to achieve the approval of a Security Council
Resolution that backs its military actions, international interventions have become
generalized, whether unilateral or collective, and directed at defending the interests of
those powers in a certain country or region.
The cases of Kosovo (1999); Iraq (2003); Enduring Freedom (2001) in Afghanistan or,
more recently, Lebanon (2006) and Georgia (2008), more than any argument, illustrate
the reality of the interventionist dimension of the current system of world security.
NATO has defined its strategic performance in this international context in some cases
in accordance with pragmatic criteria, such as in the military intervention in Kosovo,
and, on other occasions, in accordance with international legality criteria, such as in the
case of ISAF.
In the light of the Alliance's evolution in the last two decades, we may and should
conduct an assessment of the new strategic document pointing out three essential
characteristics: a) its political and declarative scope; b) its vagueness; c) and its
incomplete nature. .
In a strict sense, it is not a strategic document, at least not in line with its
predecessors, as it does not have a section on "directions for the forces of the Alliance"
that specifically includes such relevant aspects as: specific missions military forces
must carry out, directives for the disposition of forces, quantitative and qualitative
characteristics of conventional and nuclear forces needed; command structure; etc.
8 For an analysis of the evolution experienced by the United Nations doctrine regarding peace missions,
see the General Secretary documents:
An Agenda for Peace. Preventive diplomacy, peacemaking and peace-keeping. (17 June 1992). A/47/277
- S/24111
Supplement of “Un Programa de Paz”: Documento de posición del Secretario General presentado con
ocasión del cincuentenario de las Naciones Unidas. (25 January 1995). A/50/60 S/1995/1.
Un mundo más seguro: la responsabilidad que compartimos. Informe del Grupo de alto nivel sobre las
amenazas, los desafíos y el cambio.- Asamblea General (2 December 2004) A/59/565.
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It is possible to argue that all these aspects will be included in the documents leading
to the development of the New Strategic Concept. However, one must agree that their
absence from the main document minimizes its importance and presupposes a change
in position regarding the Alliance' strategies of 1991 and 1999.
It is also a vague document since, as we mentioned, it ignores active threats that had
been acknowledged in previous documents; it includes environmental and health
threats, for instance, whose management is primarily of national character, as the
current nuclear disaster in Japan has proved, without specifying the means available or
coordination criteria to follow; it mentions a system of crisis management without
specifying the entities, procedures or civilian capacities required. And, finally, it refers
to the need for a complementarity of functions with the European Union, particularly
regarding crisis management and collaborative security, without making any reference,
nor even of general character, to the directives under which such complementarity
should be carried out.
Finally, for a series of reasons, it is an incomplete document. First of all, it does not
draw from the lessons learned from the experiences in the Balkans and Afghanistan to
determine the political and strategic criteria necessary to establish the reach and limits
of the missions in which NATO intervenes. Secondly, there is not a precise and
differentiated strategic assessment of the regions that neighbour the Alliance, such as
the Maghreb, the Caucasus, and the Middle and Far East. Neither is there any mention
of some missions that, on account of their frequency, their importance and their mixed
nature (defensive and expeditionary) should have been explicitly recognized, such as
the rescue missions and protection of citizens of Allied nations residing in areas of war
conflict or disaster situations. Last but not least, there is the omission of the
relationships the Alliance must maintain with organizations such as OSCE or what to do
in face of proposals, such as the one formulated by Russian President Medvedev for
establishing a European Security Treaty.
8. Conclusions
As a final assessment, it is necessary to point out that the New Strategic Concept
reflects with great accuracy the set of strengths and weaknesses that currently affect
NATO.
With regard to the strengths, the following stand out:
1. The capacities, organization (High Commands) and military experience that make
NATO the most effective organization that has existed in the last half century;
2. A good part of that efficacy is due to the participation of three of the major military
powers in the world which, besides, benefit from a combination of conventional and
nuclear means;
3. That has given NATO not only an incredible and effective dissuasive ability, but also
a proven capacity of power projection at regional and world levels.
However, the Alliance also presents some considerable weaknesses which, with time,
have limited its international protagonist role and increased doubts regarding its reason
for existing in face of the development of new multilateral provisional coalitions as
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medium or long-term strategic alternatives. Among these weaknesses, the following
stand out:
1. The military hegemony historically held by the United States, which has hindered
the development of military capacities of European allies and their political will to
assume the roles imposed by regional and world defence, at a time when Washington
increasingly shifts its strategic priorities towards the Pacific, not towards the Euro-
Atlantic region;
2. The insufficient institutional development of the Alliance's political structure in
relation to its military structure, which has continuously incapacitated NATO to take on
and adapt to the new world strategic and diplomatic situations;
3. The increasing discrepancy of geo-strategic interests among the allies which,
together with the system of decision by consensus, is creating an internal political
blockade which will become even more complex with the adherence of new members,
such as the Ukraine or Georgia.
If these weaknesses are not recognized and no attempt is made to overcome them, the
formulation of new strategic concepts will not solve NATO's already large tendency to
become a mere military management agency without a political will and vision of the
future. Notwithstanding, this is something that can be avoided despite the 2010New
Strategic Concept.
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
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LEARNING TO BUILD A SUSTAINABLE PEACE:
"LOCAL OWNERSHIP" AND PEACEBUILDING PRACTICES.
THE CASE OF JUSTICE REFORM IN HAITI
Amélie Gauthier
Independent consultant working for the Norwegian Peacebuilding Center (Noref) on a project focused on
Youth and Armed Violence in post-conflict settings. She was previously a researcher in the peace, security
and human rights area of FRIDE. She holds an MA in International Cooperation and Project Management
from the Ortega and Gasset Institute in Madrid and a BA in International Management and Finance from the
École des Hautes Études Commerciales (HEC) in Montreal. Prior to joining FRIDE, she worked as a political
analyst for the Canadian Embassy in Madrid. She was assistant researcher for the book Perspectives from
the Front Lines by George E. Irani, Vamik D. Volkan, Judy Carter (2006).
Madalena Moita
Researcher currently finishing her PhD Thesis on “The United Nations and Peacebuilding - the cases of Haiti
and Guatemala”, at the Universidad Complutense de Madrid (Spain). She holds a MA in Peace and War
Studies in New International Relations (Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa, Portugal) and a Graduate Studies
degree in Political Science and International Relations (Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Portugal). She has
worked for FRIDE (Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior) as a consultant – as
well as for some other institutions, like NOREF (Norwegian Peacebuilding Centre) or the International Peace
Institute – always with a focus on peace processes and post-conflict reconstruction. Currently she is working
for the European Commission on several projects on Civil Society.
Abstract
The debate on local ownership in peacebuilding policies is relatively recent, inherited from
the reflection on aid efficiency and sustainability. When focusing on its application at the
field level, like in the Haitian case, it becomes evident that its inclusion in the peacebuilding
doctrine of all major donors has not had a correspondence at the strategic and operative
levels. This article is the result of a research in the field on how the concept of “local
ownership” in peacebuilding efforts is put into practice and perceived by different
stakeholders. The authors focused on the on-going Justice reform in Haiti before the
Earthquake of January 2010 to better understand the dynamics between international and
local actors, from the policy definition stage to their application at the country level.
Keywords
Peacebuilding; Rule of Law; Justice; Haiti; Ownership
How to cite this article
Gauthier, Amélie; Moita, Madalena (2011). "Learning to build a sustainable peace:
"local ownership" and peacebuilding practices. The case of Justice Reform in Haiti”.
JANUS.NET e-journal of International Relations, Vol. 2, N.º 1, Spring 2011. Consulted
[online] on date of last visit, observare.ual.pt/janus.net/en_vol2_n1_art5.
Article received in October 2010 and accepted for publication in March 2011
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Amélie Gauthier e Madalena Moita
54
LEARNING TO BUILD A SUSTAINABLE PEACE:
"LOCAL OWNERSHIP" AND PEACEBUILDING PRACTICES.
THE CASE OF JUSTICE REFORM IN HAITI1
Amélie Gauthier e Madalena Moita
Haiti presents an interesting case study of the progress of international intervention in
violent conflicts. Haiti exemplifies how international intervention has changed with the
nature of war from the onset of the first peacekeeping operation in the early nineties,
to the multidimensional integrated peacebuilding mission of the new millennium.
Despite the new approaches, in the last two decades the return of violence continues to
highlight the limitations of foreign intervention in peacebuilding efforts. The debate
among scholars and professionals associates its lack of sustainability with the fact that
the strategies and policies attempted are fundamentally encouraged by foreign entities
(usually strong regional or international powers or multilateral bodies) incapable of
being sufficiently sensitive to the nuances of each specific situation.
When policies imposed from the outside fail to yield good long-term results, in the
absence of commitment by local governments and acceptance by the people, the
disproportionate relationships between national and international players are brought
into question. The need for greater participation by locals in decision making processes
is also questioned and becomes a priority. Under such circumstances, the concept of
"local ownership" emerges not only as the source of international legitimacy, but also
as a solution for making international intervention more effective.
Today, the debate over this concept is present in the dialogue between the main
players in this area, from the big multilateral organizations to the main contributors of
development assistance. However, it has been focused on the refinement of a political
peacebuilding discourse absent from an ensuing reflection on ways to implement such
processes on the ground. The goal of this study is to take the discussion to the ground
level in order to try to understand how general guiding principles, such as "local
ownership", become routine practices.
In general terms, this study aims to encourage reflection about how the concept of
"local ownership" is understood and applied at the political, strategic, and operational
levels. The study seeks to better understand the dynamic between local and
international players, from an early phase of policy definition to its application at
1 This article is the result of a joint research study with the Chr. Michelsen Institute and was financed by
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Norwegian Center for Peace Consolidation (NOREF). Though the
final results were presented in May of 2010, the study was completed prior to the January 2010
earthquake in Haiti. It is true that the natural disaster caused a shift in priorities for development
assistance, but the authors believe that policies regarding the Rule of Law must figure in the agenda for
reconstruction. The authors hope that, in that context, this article will prove helpful not only in
understanding local ownership in the efforts of general peace consolidation, but also in drawing some
lessons from Haiti's past which may be useful in the rebuilding process.
The authors would like to thank Jacob Ole Sending for his contribution and ongoing assistance as project
coordinator during the research period, and the Chr. Michelsen Institute for its collaboration with FRIDE.
The authors would also like to thank the local and international participants who accepted to participate
in this study.
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55
national level. It attempts to ascertain to what extent peacebuilding policies are "locally
conceived and led" (Bendix and Stanley, 2008: 95) and how local and international
players interpret this concept.
In more concrete terms, the study focuses on the policies protecting Rule of Law in
Haiti: a specific collection of peacebuilding policies which has been a priority of foreign
players in the country. From the multiple Rule of Law reform policies, the authors
elected to focus on legal reform, which is fundamental for contributors as the
unequivocal pillar of state rebuilding.
Today, legal reform in Haiti follows a path based on the November 2007 National
Strategy for Growth and Poverty Reduction Document (DSNCRP, the French acronym)2
which identifies five reform priorities:
1. Restructuring and modernization of the Ministry of Justice and Public Safety;
2. Overhauling the legal system;
3. Improving access to an efficient judicial system and to the courts;
4. Consistent development and rehabilitation of the prison system; and
5. Modernizing legislation.
The acceptance of the Document as a starting point for reform exemplifies a paradigm
of international application of the concept of "local ownership" when, in fact, it
translates a narrow perspective of the concept. In this study, the authors attempted to
discover the limitations and the opportunities in the peacebuilding process in Haiti,
stemming from some of the issues raised by this international approach to the
advancement of local ownership.
To begin with, "Haitian local ownership" may assume many different meanings, from
ownership limited to its political leaders, to a broader ownership by the people. In Haiti,
government instability and the constant change of these policies suggests a need to
search for other sources of ownership: from the ownership of professionals in the
justice sector and the officials who will apply such polices, to ownership by the
population who must obey those policies daily. Since "ownership" itself comprises
several dimensions (namely in the three levels mentioned above: political, strategic,
and operational), when studying its application in a specific context it is essential to
consider the heterogeneity and complexity of both aid beneficiaries and peacebuilders.3
Likewise, "international approach" must be considered as a series of cultures and work
practices by widely different participants, from those who lean towards cooperation for
development to those who give priority to the consolidation of peace and safety in its
strict meaning.
At the start of a dialogue regarding ownership, the combination of these different
variables must be taken into account, without any ambition to idealize the concept, and
the focus must be on the possibilities it may present to the materialization of more
sustainable peace building processes.
2 Document Stratégique National pour la Croissance et la Réduction de la Pauvreté available at:
http://www.mpce.gouv.ht/dsncrpfinal.pdf
3 Peacebuilders is a term used in several documents on this topic to describe professionals who work in a
post-conflict environment in specific areas of peacebuilding such as the Rule of Law, safety,
reconciliation, etc.
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Methodology
In this study, the authors combined different approaches in order to analyze the
dynamic of local-international interactions in the shaping and implementation of legal
reform in Haiti, and followed four of the five priorities defined in the DSNCRP. Following
a previous bibliographic review, the authors prepared a set of semi-structured open
interviews directed at the representatives of the main international entities in their
respective headquarters. In the second phase, they prepared a trip to that country to
conduct the interviews.4
- National judicial system players;
- Main Haitian contributors to Justice reform: MINUSTAH,5 UNDP,6 the United States,
the European Union, and Canada.
- The implementation agencies: the National Centre for State Courts (NCSC), the
International Legal Assistance Consortium (ILAC) and the Organisation
Internationale de la Francophonie (OIF)].
- Civil society organizations.
This article will start by presenting the normative context of the concept of
"ownership", followed by a brief diagnosis of the judicial system in Haiti and some
reflections on how the concept is interpreted by those who apply it and those who
benefit from it.
a. Normative Context
The general discourse on peacebuilding inherited the concept of "local ownership" from
the cooperation policies for development when it emerged from the realization of the
lack of success associated with assistance efforts of the early 1990s. In 1996, the CAD
OCDE7 document Shaping the 21st Century: the Contribution of Development Co-
operation stated the need to respect "local ownership" in the development process
(Kuehne, 2008). At that time, the term was used in the sense of "local participation" or
"local empowerment".
In recent years, the debate over the effectiveness of assistance has stressed the
importance of local participation as a factor of both legitimacy and sustainability of
international interventions. The main entities and nations contributing to development
assistance assert that local beneficiaries must partake in devising policies that will
change their way of life, not only because it is more ethical to abandon the types of
paternalistic relationships inherited from colonialism (Donais, 2008: 6), but also for
reasons of long-term efficiency.
Strategic documents and peacebuilding doctrine already include references to local
ownership. However, in operational terms, this concept is not clearly defined.
4 The authors' participation in a parallel project provided them with the opportunity to participate in a
seminar in Port-Au-Prince on the political challenges facing the reform of the judicial system, which was
organized following research on the ground (June 2009).
5 United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti.
6 United Nations Development Program
7 Development Assistance Committee of the Organization for Economic Development and Co-operation
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For this study, the authors adopted the definition suggested by Annika S. Hansen and
Wiharta Sharon:
“local ownership embraces the recognition that a justice and security sector reform
process is of integral concern to the local population and that local actors should have a
say in formulating the outcomes of the process [...]It should, wherever possible, build
on existing judicial systems and legal traditions and reflect the culture and values of the
country in question. It should also reaffirm international law, norms and standards.
Local ownership cannot be treated as an absolute but instead must be implemented to
different degrees that range from local acceptance and support for the reform process
to local control over decision-making.” (Hansen and Wiharta, 2007: 17).
Diagnosis of the judicial system and reform plan
This section analyzes and responds to one of the main questions featured in the
interviews: how would you describe the central problem or challenge in Haiti and,
more specifically, in the legal sector?
One of the main problems stressed was the interference of the Executive Power, of
politicians, and other groups in the legal system. The absence of an organ independent
from the government, with its own budget to manage the courts, appoint judges and
magistrates, and oversee their conduct, leaves the judicial system vulnerable to all
types of interference.
There was also mention of conflicts of authority between the President and the
government over control of the Ministry of Justice.8 Control of the legal system is
coveted by many, which turns this sector into a highly politicized and corrupt arena.
Another frequently mentioned aspect is the weakness of available infrastructures. The
courtrooms are very run down, with little furniture and few essential tools for work,
such as civil and criminal codes in French and Creole, and computers and archives for
storing information on the trials. Material resources are easily funded by the
international community but they alone are not enough to allow the legal system to
start functioning in an adequate and effective manner. Some contributors are hesitant
to finance material resources directly without the development of a standard and a
sustainability plan. In fact, the issue of material resources is a point of division between
local and international players. Haitians defend the need for resources and equipment
to carry out their work; international players recognize such needs but argue that
material resources will not make justice more effective and transparent.
The lack of assets is particularly serious when it comes to human resources. The
majority of judicial players are not qualified enough to perform their duties and were
most likely appointed due to personal or political connections. The problem is so serious
that in some remote areas of Haiti some judges are illiterate. This problem is not
specific or limited to the legal system and affects the whole country. Brain drain is a
complex challenge that has rendered the country highly dependent on foreign technical
expertise.
In the specific context of this study, justice administration and the operation of courts
are very affected, particularly in the area of criminal cases, where there is a tendency
8 Interview with a lawyer in Port-au-Prince, 31 March 2009.
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for cases to be blocked by multiple judicial pronouncements over civil issues, resulting
in long periods of pre-trial detention that render cases extremely long. Some non-
governmental organizations (NGO) in Haiti are working to gather detailed information
on every detainee and on the legal proceedings applied. This exercise will help identify
difficulties in detention and trial cases and the specific situation of each detainee.
Despite the large number of reports about problems in the judicial system, it appears
there are still important holes in the information available for each case, regarding both
judge profiles and statistical information about courtroom proceedings.
The lack of information is further aggravated by the lack of connection between city
and rural areas. Some of the larger local NGOs, such as Réseau National de Défence
des Droits de l’Homme, have representatives in every province who act as key
informers of the situation in each region. The Réseau National de Défence des Droits de
l’Homme, created in February 2009 by presidential decree, also includes officials in
every province, which has, no doubt, improved relations between the capital and more
remote areas. However, at the national level, MINUSTAH is still the best informed
participant as a result of its stable presence all across the country.
The inequality in access to justice is a critical issue, particularly for the 60% of Haitians
who live in rural areas. For many, access to a police station or courtroom requires
several hours or days of travel. Conflicts are resolved locally: citizens place their trust
in the police leadership, in the locally elected community representative (when they are
present), or in a religious personality, whether Catholic, Protestant, or a member of the
Voodoo hierarchy. Though it is difficult to label such methods of resolution as typical
cases of "informal justice", as is the case in the African nations,9 the methods of conflict
resolution in these rural areas are definitely outside the official judicial parameters
established by the civil and criminal codes. The legitimacy of deliberation derives from
the prestige of the person granting the decision or the sentence.10 However, at the
same time that it contributes to peaceful coexistence (cases of violence in rural areas
are sporadic incidents when compared to the occurrence of such cases in the capital),
the methods and rhythm fall outside the legal framework of respect for human rights.
The feelings expressed by Haitians over formal justice are fear and distrust. It is
common knowledge that judges, as state civil servants with the responsibility to serve
the people, often serve their own interests. There are no professional ethics, pride, or
principles to guide judges and their work, and they are often accused of corruption.
Distrust, lack of respect, and suspicion between citizens and judicial institutions are
alarming; developing a minimum level of trust seems, in itself, like an enormous
challenge.
b. The reform plan
The DNSCRP is the most relevant document in the sense that it establishes reform
priorities and, further more, it allows foreigners to intervene within the framework of a
government programme. However, it has several limitations. On the one hand, the
priorities are excessively broad and the document does not establish a strategy for
reaching goals. On the other hand, since the Ministry of Justice and Public Safety
9 African informal judicial systems are usually characterized by strong tribal structure where the hierarchy
is well defined, the supremacy of the chief is recognized, and his decision is respected.
10 Interview with a lawyer, Port-Au-Prince, March 31, 2009.
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manages a budget for the three reforms (police, justice, and prisons), the large part of
the budget is destined to police reform, which has yielded positive results and led to a
certain consensus among Haitians and international contributors.
Within this general setting, the main contributors in Haiti have their own plans, visions,
and strategies regarding reform. Coordination efforts are constant and different
instruments have been put in place. Unfortunately, there are still many gaps in terms
of coordination. MINUSTAH, UNDP, OIF, NCSC, ILAC, the United States, and the
European Union are the primary international contributors in the area of legal reform.
There is a certain division in the work areas in an attempt to reduce juxtaposition, but
the separation between the activities of different entities has led to a reduction in the
impact of actions as a whole. Sometimes projects are funded to meet immediate needs,
but are frequently isolated from other projects and disconnected from the final
objective of a more efficient legal system.
From the very start there is lack of consensus on the part of contributors, who disagree
regarding what reform model to adopt (French, Latin American, and North American),
favouring their own in detriment of others. There is also great division among Haitians
and consensus is difficult, or nearly impossible, to reach. The Presidential Work Team,
which follows the reform and functions independently from the Ministry of Justice and
the other commissions and their teams, portrays a good example of the divisions that
exist at the very centre of Haitian society. In this climate of disorder regarding the
fundamental direction of reform, small progress requires constant dialogue and effort,
consultation, and mediation. Such is the case, without mentioning the activities of
groups that totally oppose any reform and benefit from the current state of dysfunction
of the legal system.
Some progress has been made in the area of reinforcement of judicial power as the
result of the passing of a law that establishes the legal framework for the statute of
competencies of the Superior Council of Judicial Power. The opening of the School of
Magistracy will also help fill the gap in the training of judges and magistrates.11 Access
to legal assistance has improved substantially with the Assistance Bureau programme
which was established in nearly every province. The efficiency of courts and the
reinforcement of the Ministry, with the help of United Nations volunteers, have resulted
in improvements in certain areas. In spite of significant progress, there is no noticeable
difference in reaching efficient, accessible, and credible justice. Besides, the
sustainability of these small reforms is also questionable.
How do peace contributors and local players interpret "ownership"?
c. From the political sphere to the ground
In the case of Haiti, the study of key documents of the policies of major contributors
makes it easy to identify the inclusion of the term "local ownership" as the fundamental
directive in the establishment of international relations between locals and international
contributors.
11 Several magistrates have already completed basic courses; a complete series of specialized courses is
available through the Director of the School of Magistracy, with support from the International
Francophone Organization. Interview in Port-Au-Prince, April 2009.
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On the political level, where the priorities of contributors are established, general
documents are usually developed, some very elementary that establish a clear and
simple starting point to be later adapted, at strategic level, to each specific context. It
is common for contributors to present a standard framework for international
peacebuilding interventions. The five pages of European Commission guidelines on
policies for reinforcement of the Rule of Law (CE, 2009) are a good example of that.
This type of document is usually prepared by international generalist experts at their
headquarters.
The 2004 report on Rule of Law by the United Nations General Secretary also mirrors
this reality, as it includes "ownership" as a core directive. In mentioning this concept he
stresses: “We must learn as well to eschew one-size-fits-all formulas and the
importation of foreign models, and, instead, base our support on national assessments,
national participation and national needs and aspirations (UN, 2004).”
However, it is a long way from these declarations of intent to the actual application of
"local ownership" at strategic and operational levels. Perhaps due to the fact that it is
essentially an agent for development, the UNDP is, in fact, one of the contributors with
clearer guidelines for peacebuilders on the ground with regard to ownership. In a report
on the reinforcement of policies of Rule of Law in conflict and post-conflict scenarios, it
states:
“[As] a development agency, UNDP Rule of Law programming is not only guided by
national ownership, as a principle, but this principle is also embedded in UNDP
execution modalities. Nationally-owned needs assessments are central to UNDP
programming design. Partnership and coordination with national partners is essential to
this process (UNDP, 2008).”
However, in legal terms, when we move from the political to the operational level, the
contributors' literature regarding ownership is more ambiguous. USAID, for instance,
created a guide that establishes procedures for its officers to conduct previous studies
of a country in order to devise specific policies for the reinforcement of Rule of Law.
This guide states:” the post-conflict rebuilding process is challenging and complex. It
requires strategies that promote local ownership and financial sustainability, and that
develop local capacity quickly” (USAID, 2008). Further along, the same guide offers
recommendations about the best way to obtain information about the historic and
political context of the country or the roles of the main contributors, so that its officers
may conduct a proper evaluation of the legal sector. The dilemma arises when the
same report states that: “if the rule of law is a universal principle, then supporting the
rule of law is not necessarily imposing foreign ideas on a society”.
In some way, this example demonstrates an often problematic application of "local
ownership". Rather than learning about priorities from local players, foreign experts on
the ground make an effort to attain specific knowledge of each country in order to
understand how to better promote "local ownership" - generally meaning acceptance
and assuming responsibility of international policies.
In effect, the strategic level corresponds to a difficult transitional phase that requires
the conciliation between the principles of contributors and the demands of developing
countries. In that moment of transition, specialists who benefit from a deeper
knowledge of the country must carry out basic flexible manoeuvres to adjust policies
designed at the headquarters to the real situation, and vice-versa - what Schlichte and
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Veit call "policy bending" (Schlichte and Veit, 2007). The solution contributors came up
with to simplify this correspondence is to encourage the formulation of a local
development plan in a strategy document for each country, which will guide assistance
policies. In Haiti this document is the DSNCRP.
At this point it is, no doubt, relevant to mention that, during the interviewing process,
the authors were constantly asked to explain the meaning of "local ownership", which
reveals a general lack of familiarity with the expression.
However, in the interviews with contributors, alignment with the DSNCRP emerged as
one of four main indicators of ownership. Along with this cardinal rule, policies were
considered as "local" if they met one of the following criteria:
a) the government signing off on a specific agreement,
b) the government's partial contribution with resources (human or financial) or
c) the government's commitment to assure the continuity of the project.
In fact, the three criteria listed presuppose that the government may "appreciate the
benefits of the policies and to accept the responsibility for them” (Boughton and
Mourmouras, 2002: 3). After all, they suggest that "local ownership" is more of a
consequence, rather than the point of departure for the process and, furthermore, that
it is exclusively centred on the state, dismissing the will and participation of the people.
In effect, the fundamental instrument of local ownership - the DSNCRP - is now
perceived by some national players as the product of an unsuccessful executive power:
the 2007 administration of Jacques-Édouard Alexis, which was ousted. Haitians do not
recognize the document as a truly national plan, but rather as an external product or,
in the best scenario, as a mixed product devised by Haitians and the international
community.12 Besides, few local players recognize the document as adequate and the
current government hardly accepts it as the primary plan from which to devise specific
public policies. The search for a standard guideline is further complicated by the
emergence of new documents, such as the recent report by Paul Collier to the United
Nations General Secretary (Collier, 2009) with suggestions for economic alternatives for
Haiti, which clouds previously established national priorities.
Calling "local ownership" a success, when following an orphaned plan like the DSNCRP,
raises the issue of which ownership is being safeguarded. Governments are constantly
changing and do not have a coherent and consensual development plan. Today, no one
assumes responsibility for the implementation of the DSNCRP and it is primarily a
starting point for contributors. The lack of government continuity chips away at local
ownership, mainly if international players face restrictions at procedures level to search
for more permanent partners, such as justice professionals or even larger platforms of
civil society could well be.
d. What is, then, the government's perspective on local ownership?
When confronted with this question, government and its national officers appear to be
even less familiar with the concept, possibly because they have less access to the
specialized language of development than international players. However, when asked,
12 Interview with a high ranking government official, Port-Au-Prince, April 3 2009.
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more specifically, if they felt that justice reform policies were basically initiated by
outside contributors or devised by Haitians, they were less hesitant in stating that
decisions were always ultimately made by Haitian nationals.
With an orphaned guide in hands and a weak global strategy for legal reform, the
government maintains a permanent dialogue with the contributors to select the
international offers that better serve the more immediate needs for improving the
system. Several outsiders interviewed stated that such negotiations are conducted until
international players persuade the government to accept their proposals. This duplicity
of perception is also is quite contradictory: Haitians see themselves as the main players
in decision making, while international players see themselves as convincing Haitians
one way or another.
In the end, in some sort of balance between national sovereignty and international
constraints,13 without sufficient financial means, the government ends up accepting the
proposals of contributors. In Haiti, this gives rise to a dispute among international
players, who have the essential resources and are under pressure to see results, and a
kind of national resistance that reflects a lack of strategy and political will, which
attempts the tactic of making national independence prevail over international
imposition.
The opinions of civil society
In terms of civil society, the large majority of those interviewed were not consulted
regarding the DSNCRP and, generally, do not have any knowledge of the document's
contents.
The interviews with civil society organizations (CSO) also showed that their priorities in
terms of Rule of Law are definitely different from those established by the DSNCRP or
the visions of international players. When asked what the priorities in terms of justice
should be, the CSOs expressed concerns related to social and economic rights, such as
gender equality or the people's right to feed themselves, many clearly absent from the
international contributors' programmes of reinforcement of Rule of Law. They also
pointed to the vicious circle of corruption and impunity, which tears away at the
credibility of institutions, as the main obstacle to the development of a solid legal
system. These are two topics generally avoided by contributors.
The CSOs feel that, to some extent, they are sidestepped by legal reform since they
were not consulted by either national or international players in the process of defining
priorities for that sector. Some contributors acknowledged that they subsidized the
government to consult with civil society, but room for dialogue between the
government and organized citizens is either extremely weak or nonexistent. It is also
true that CSOs did not always accept to work with the government and acted more as
an opposition force than a strategic partner working toward a common good. This
tendency may be founded on several factors: an historical tradition of not-so-
democratic practices and deep-seated political divisions, and a cultural difficulty on the
part of Haitians in extending links of solidarity beyond family circles. Both can be
13 Haiti generates only 11% of the GDP in revenues, which makes it very dependent on foreign financing.
Country Report, The Economist Intelligence Unit, November 2008, p. 8.
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explained by years of dictatorship and behaviour rooted in survival and encouraged by
competition for international cooperation funds.
This phenomenon of self-exclusion is even more aggravated when it comes to working
with MINUSTAH. Haitians' reactions to the United Nations Mission vary greatly: while
the large majority of those interviewed share the belief that it must remain on the
ground to guarantee the security of the country, many, however, question the profile of
that presence with regard to topics of greater political sensibility. All, however, claim
the ultimate imperative of national sovereignty. Under theses circumstances, some
question whether that presence must remain of primarily military nature, since the
most radical opinions refuse any presence and accuse the Mission of being an
occupation force.
In terms of the Rule of Law and legal reform, MINUSTAH shares the international
leadership with USAID, both recognized by the great majority of those interviewed.
However, the fact that, in Haiti, the Mission is shifting away from its primary
maintenance and security functions toward a more extensive role of institutionalization
and state empowerment, while assuming a routine closer to development support, have
led to some difficulties in its relations with Haitians.
As far as organizational issues go, the fact that MINUSTAH is trying to change its role,
while simultaneously maintaining a significant military component and a DPKO
(Department Of Peacekeeping Operations of the United Nations) work culture, also
affects its image. It met with challenges in attempting to articulate two different work
cultures and languages, between the tools of peacebuilding and those of development,
in what is called an integrated mission.
This duplicity of cultures is also reflected on the exercise of "ownership". While the
majority of a series of legal agents at multiple levels and from all regions appeared to
be satisfied with the "harmonious" collaboration with PNUD officers, this was not,
however, the general rule for the United Nations system in the country. In fact,
generally speaking, different entities also employ very distinct practices, from doing the
work to working with.
This question was raised regarding the distinction between peacebuilding and
development practices. If, these days, sustainability and ownership are preferred
principles in the sector of cooperation, in the area of peace promotion short-term
measures and quick solutions have had negative effects and have been criticized for
their unsustainable nature and counter-producing effects.
e. The experience of the implementation agencies
At an operational level, and in the context of the implementation agencies that carry
out the projects funded by contributors, familiarity with the concept of ownership
reflected a slightly different reality. Representatives of the three largest institutions -
the National Centre for State Courts (NCSC), the International Legal Assistance
Consortium (ILAC) and the Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie (OIF) –
stated that they were familiar with the concept and, furthermore, used it as a
fundamental guideline in their work.
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The majority were selected by contributors as a result of their past experience in the
area of legal reform in developing nations. They all admitted their financiers allowed
them considerable flexibility in formulating rules for implementing each project; some
even mentioned they were contacted prior to project planning on account of their
specific technical expertise. All developed a certain familiarity with the Haitian reality
since, despite the primarily short-term duration of individual projects, they have been
in contact with the country for several years.
They have been developing innovative projects all across the country in a close
relationship with reality on the ground, such as the creation of a legal filing system or
providing motorcycles for judges of peace to grant them access to remote areas in
order to solve small legal problems.
For these organizations, the main indicators that the process is locally driven, and that
there is ownership, consist of a profound consulting system and the guarantee that,
gradually, the government will assume the financial cost of such projects. However, all
three organizations admitted that their basic criteria for success is the response to
goals set by contributors, even when the government, as is often the case, fails to give
continuity to the projects.
Despite it being easier to apply the concept, some of the representatives stated,
however, that when the Rule of Law is questioned, specifically in technical areas,
ownership becomes a relative priority and international players must take up the
initiative to make sure progress in legal reform is carried out.
Main obstacles to ownership
A contextual analysis of the interviews in the light of the very specific political and
social scenario, not only of the country but also of the role of each of the players and
the synergy created among them, allows the formulation of some of the main
challenges to the application of the concept of ownership.
f. Local limitations
Haitians are historically used to the presence of a significant international presence.
The political elite accumulated knowledge about the way peace operations work and
about the role and interests of contributors. The interaction with international
personnel has facilitated a culture of dialogue and sharing, making coexistence possible
and negotiations more fluid. However, the failure of prior international interventions
created a feeling of frustration and distrust. It must be mentioned that MINUSTAH is
the 7th United Nations Mission in Haiti. To some, this presence may have created a
quasi-resistant passive attitude among the Haitian elites.
The first factor identified as an obstacle to ownership is the limited local capacity. The
first option for professional Haitian youth who graduate is to either leave the country or
go to work for international entities offering higher pay. The capacity deficit of local
human resources finds its origin in a poor educational system, from basic education to
university level. The result is that local organizations, either from civil society or
governmental organs, suffer from severe lack of qualified human resources.
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Another factor that has been stressed is the difficulty in making decisions and in
implementation on the part of Haitian personnel. This procrastination may also be seen
as a way of resisting international predominance in devising policies in the arena of
legal reform. In his work Pays en dehors, Bartholomy mentions the early openness and
empathy of Haitians in the negotiations with foreigners, but international players
learned that, just like the author states, that attitude does not necessarily mean they
will approve or follow up on an agreement.
The lack of continuity inside the government has proved to be an obstacle to the reform
process. In the last four years, there have been five Ministers of Justice and Public
Safety. The new ministers tend to modify, ignore, or reinvent the policies of their
predecessors. The absence of a national consensus which, with the help of civil society,
could have been maintained during the times of government change leaves
international efforts vulnerable to change and to the exercise of democracy.
There is still no fluidity in the relationship between civil society and parliament. Without
any type of instruments for accountability and control over government and members
of parliament beyond elections, democracy is restricted. Civil society is characterized by
its weak capacity to work with sovereign powers and advance proposals and solutions.
Another obstacle to ownership and to a larger process of social transformation is the
lack of political will of the President, the government, and the elite. "The President does
not believe in the State"14 and uses tactics such as "divide to conquer" with
contributors in order to complicate and difficult the coordination of efforts, on a
multilateral basis. An efficient legal system would make Haitians equal before the law
and would endanger the elite and their current schemes of corruption and clientelism.
For example, the President has been pressured by the international community to
select the president of the Supreme Court, which, since November of 2007, could have
given a boost to reform and to the creation of the Superior Council of Magistracy.
However, the sector is still waiting for that decision.
g. International limitations
In a complex situation of transition toward democratic functioning of the state involving
the creation of institutions, qualifications, and a Rule of Law culture, participants in
peacebuilding and development must work together (Hansen and Wiharta, 2007: 5).
It has been demonstrated that post-conflict periods are politically and socially more
volatile. In that sense, Haiti's recent political scenario is fascinating. In the last three
years the government fell twice and, along with it, the Minister of Justice who had
worked side by side with MINUSTAH on laws about independence of the legal system.
Every time there is a new government, a new Minister is appointed who, through inertia
or indifference, rejects previous advancement measures. Simultaneously, two
presidential commissions, along with two other within the framework of the Ministry of
Justice, were created. Split between supporting the government or the President and
discouraged by so many political manoeuvres and insufficient capacity for
implementation, the international community must deal with the increasing number of
players. In face of these challenges, the international community is forced to work with
14 Interview with a United Nations employee, October 20, 2009.
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personalities rather than institutions. In this unstable environment, the sustainability of
its programmes is extremely complex.
In this complex scenario, contributors face important technical and financial limitations.
The pre-eminence of quick results has been denounced as highly prejudicial due to the
pressure applied by contributors to the implementation agencies. Consequently, results
are quantitatively measured and do not take into account other variables of success,
such as ownership. Often, it is sacrificed in the name of results.
Programmes may work for a few years but since, in time, the priorities of contributors
change considerably (they, too, are affected by public opinion, voters, and a larger
international context) depending on the results they yield, these programmes are often
discontinued. A specific example is the case mentioned earlier of the itinerant judge of
peace in the southern provinces of Haiti. Judges were provided with motorcycles to
reach populations in remote parts of the country. The actual demand for judges by the
populations far exceeded expectations, but unfortunately the programme was shut
down because its financing did not include funds for paying for petrol. Getting the
population used to these services, but lacking a plan for sustainability of the projects,
creates a set of necessities while failing to safeguard the means to continue to meet
those needs.
When it comes to instruments for accountability and assessing transparency, there is a
total discrepancy between international and local players. International players demand
strict control of funds and transparency from locals. However, most locals interviewed
stressed they lack access to instruments that go beyond an assessment of results
carried out by contributors in function of the goals set by them. Therefore, locals
request national instruments for accountability of the contributors' intervention. In the
words of a person interviewed: "how many more expensive and ineffective projects
must we tolerate?"15
It has been stressed that ownership appears in the majority of peacebuilding doctrine
documents of all major contributors. However, it remains blocked in political discourse
as a concept and a best practice without effective translation into the implementation of
strategic measures on the ground. This was symptomatically illustrated by the lack of
familiarity with the concept on the part of international peacebuilders. Likewise, when
referring to Rule of Law, some peacebuilders really took it as a universal democratic
principle and, deliberately, ignored the need for ownership.
A considerable part of the problem resides in the lack of consensual definition, in the
controversy around the concept, and on the lack of guidelines on how to apply it on the
ground. It is not an absolute concept and not all ownership makes good ownership: it
is fundamental to select local partners and to identify those who are, in general, true
representatives of the will of the people. International players have primarily focused
on collaboration with the government for reasons of functional feasibility. However,
policies of strict "governmental initiative" that resulted from this partnership have not
matched the real expectations of the population and have undermined government and
international credibility. Although government reinforcement is fundamental, the lack of
complementary ground-up approaches leads to a decrease in people support. In terms
of sustainability, an approach strictly based on the government has its costs since, in
15 Interview with a representative of civil society, Port-Au-Prince, 13 April 2009.
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the end, it is the people who must maintain or reject peace and the processes of
statebuilding, as a democratic state has no power without consent and acceptance by
the people.
The most used methods to promote ownership were consultation processes, and even
these appear to have been limited and merely incidental. Some contributors supported
consulting with populations, and stated they had funds set aside in case the
government wanted to conduct consultations about legal reform. Later, however, they
declared there was no room for consulting, which was good since the Haitian people
were poorly prepared for such an exercise.16 In some instances, local players felt that
consulting and participation in the design of a document served more as a way to lend
legitimacy to international policies than to actually seek the opinion of broader
segments of the Haitian people.
The intervention of contributors through implementation agencies with the capability to
execute large-scale programmes is also a way to bypass ownership and avoid working
directly with civil society. In this manner, it takes away from the people and CSOs their
right to participate in legal reform and exercise their role in shaping public policies.
The obstacles to ownership are manifold, ranging from hidden political will to technical
limitations and political volatility. The concept should be developed not only at political
level, but also at strategic and operational levels, to reflect the complex nature of
transitional periods. International peacebuilding efforts must not be limited to a self-
fulfilling prophecy; they must constitute a long-term commitment with tools adaptable
to each context.
Conclusions
This study on how "To learn to build a sustainable peace" had the objective of analyzing
the way key-concepts of policy, guidelines, and best practices are interpreted and
applied in real situations on the ground.
Several factors were identified as challenges to ownership. These were primarily
centred on the capability and political will of Haitians, on the one hand, and on
procedural restrictions by international players, on the other.
At the root of these technical and ground issues, a fundamental question was raised: is
the international community really prepared to allow local players to determine the
results of reform processes? Real ownership means accepting not only the solutions,
but also the processes that may not be in agreement with Western models (Hansen and
Wiharta, 2007: 5). It implies abdicating the false premises that universal knowledge is
more important than local knowledge, and that international legitimacy is more
important than internal legitimacy (Sending, 2009).
The fact is that the solution for ownership dilemmas which emerged from this study is
not easily found. A feeling of frustration emanates from the verification of the current
incompatibility between international standard procedures and the need to allow
development and post national rebuilding processes to evolve. The quest for quick
results came out as one of the main factors of divergence: considering that in a country
like Haiti peacebuilding interventions are still designed for short-term periods, and that
16 Interview with a representative of a contributing nation. Port-Au-Prince, 30 March 2009.
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rapid solutions are not conceivable or viable due to the poor state of institutions,
support and long-term commitment are fundamental. Ownership requires identification
of needs, definition of priorities and strategies, participation in the formulation of
policies through active contribution in consultation processes, and development of
instruments of accountability. The progress of the peacebuilding discourse is positive
but will not be enough if not followed by a solid institutional reform of the United
Nations and the development agencies. Such a reform will allow exchanging a uniform
and strict paradigm for a series of sensitive and flexible approaches to each specific
context.
In the context of legal reform, the international community could redirect its strategy
and practices to achieve indispensable legitimacy to the future sustainability of results.
Some factors to consider include improving the relationship between citizens and the
legal and state apparatus and gaining a better understanding of the needs of citizens.
Reinforcing ownership may be a very important way to reach these objectives and
safeguard some of the progress made in Haiti so far.
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OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
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SOCIAL NETWORKS: COMMUNICATION AND CHANGE
Gustavo Cardoso
Coordinator of the Master Degree in CCIC of the University Institute of Lisbon (IUL), researcher at
CIES-IUL and lecturer in Media and Society at ISCTE-IUL. He works with the Department for
Communication and Performance Studies of the University of Milan. His research path has taken him
to cooperate with European research networks, namely IN3 (Internet Interdisciplinary Institute) in
Barcelona, WIP (World Internet Project) at USC Annenberg, COST A20 "The Impact of the Internet on
Mass Media", COST 298 "Broadband Society", and COST 609 "Transforming Audiences”. He was an
advisor in Information Society and Telecommunication Policies for the Presidency of the Republic of
Portugal (1996-2006), and in 2008 he was selected by the World Economic Forum as “Young Global
Leader”. Alongside Manuel Castells, he is the co-editor of the book "The Network Society: From
Knowledge to Policy" and Associate Editor of the journal IJOC at USC Annenberg and of the IC&S
journal published by Routledge. He is also a member of the evaluation panel of the European Research
Council and of the European Science Foundation.
Cláudia Lamy
Student in the Master Degree Programme in Communication, Culture and Information Technologies
(ISCTE-IUL), and a law graduate from the Faculty of Law (University of Lisbon). Over the past few
years she has carried out research in the fields of Political Communication and New Media at
institutions such as OberCom (Communication Observatory), Lini-ISCTE (Lisbon Internet and Networks
Institute), CIES-ISCTE (Centre for Research and Sociology Studies), CIMDE-IPL (Research Centre for
Media and Democracy), and ERC (Regulatory Authority for the Media). Her published works include
approaches to Pluralism in the Media, Media Literacy, and Online Political Activism.
Abstract
Virtual social networks have brought about the possibility for open and plural debate, where
all those with the necessary literacy skills and means are able to participate in the creation
and dissemination of information. By pressing political agents and determining the “agenda”
of a lot of the media, users demonstrate that we stand at an ideal platform for creating both
real social movements and more or less fleeting events, as manifestos or virtual campaigns.
Nonetheless, in order to understand the role of virtual social networks in today’s world, we
need to answer some prior questions. Are we facing a new communication model, whereby
the product of “disinterested” interactivity creates an aura of confidence in disseminated
information, often quite higher that that seen in the “old media”? Will that interactivity be a
chance to fight-off citizens’ growing detachment with regard to the “res publica”? Will we
find in citizen-made journalism, transmitted through virtual social networks, the
consecration of a true fourth power? On the other hand, can we call the distinct collective
movements we have seen emerging true “social movements”?
The present article aims to examine this and other issues that come to the fore in the
intricate social world of cyberspace.
Keywords
Social Movement; Social Networks; Internet; Networked Communication; Political
Communication
How to cite this article
Cardoso, Gustavo; Lamy, Cláudia (2011). "Redes sociais: comunicação e mudança”.
JANUS.NET e-journal of International Relations, Vol. 2, N.º 1, Spring 2011. Consulted
[online] on date of last visit, observare.ual.pt/janus.net/en_vol2_n1_art6.
Article received in September 2010 and accepted for publication in March 2010
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SOCIAL NETWORKS: COMMUNICATION AND CHANGE
Gustavo Cardoso e Cláudia Lamy
Introduction
Communication and the media in general are not only windows to the world. Rather,
they are sources of change, values, attitudes and ways of viewing the world, ideologies,
views about the “other”, possible worlds, and futures.
Television was, and still is, the box that changed the world; newspapers have launched
the seeds of change from old to new regimes, and even at a time closer to us,
newspapers, radio and the television did contribute, from Portugal, to change in East
Timor (Cardoso, 2006). The Internet, blogs and social networks have given us distinct
form of looking at Iran; in the U.S., the choice of a candidate for vice president was
announced via SMS; in Mozambique, the popular uprising in September 2010 was
organized via SMS and followed up in Maputo and the world via Facebook.
We waited about 50 years to see the emergence of a new communication technology
that would question the importance of television in our society: we called it Internet.
The reason why it has challenged the idea of supremacy of the TV as media has much
to do with the way it provides information, entertainment, communication, and
advertising space. However, there is more to it than that. Like television, the Internet
has also evolved and this evolution eventually became a formidable instrument of
communication and change. No two countries are alike, only the same technologies,
and although the Internet has always been a social space for communication - not just
an information space – by adopting the term Web2.0 we put ourselves in a position
whereby our biggest motivation for using the Internet could be communication.
This new view about the role of communication in information societies (Castells, 2009)
allowed us to see the role of communication in multiple events of social change, which
we have witnessed over the past years in various geographical and social spaces.
Although there are many examples of appropriation of the so-called "social networks"
in changing contexts, we chose to focus our analysis in the election of Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad in Iran and in the protests around the "Green Movement". The choice of
this example was due to the fact that we wanted an event that might be paradigmatic
of the social appropriation of the media in social networks, but that also allowed
comparison with other examples, as were the September 2010 protests in Mozambique
and the election of Barack Obama in 2008. The reason is that change can be made not
only via an electoral campaign through daily TV spins and social networks, because
there are other contexts in addition to North American and European society where
change takes place. There are many other possible communication practices leading to
social change. However, if, in theory, we can all use Internet communication to change
the practices and attitudes about what surrounds us, in practice there are a number of
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previous choices to make. These choices are essentially choices on how to think about
our relationship with the mediation mechanisms, and what degree of intervention we
want to have. As Jonathan Taplin shows us in his blog1, the way we want to relate with
the world depends on us, and we can choose to merely observe or rethink the world
and our role in it. However, whether we want to play an active role in change or not,
change is underway, as explained by Manuel Castells (2009). For this author, the
relationship between power and communication has never been so direct, and the first
step to exercise that power today is to understand how it works. This analysis seeks to
be a contribution to this exercise.
I. Networked communication and social networks
All societies are characterized by patterns of communication and not just by
information models (Wolton, 1999, Colombo, 1993; Himanen, 2006, Castells 2006,
Cardoso 2006). Our information societies have seen the emergence of a new
communication model. This is a fourth model that can be added to the three previous
ones and that can be placed in chronological order in terms of its social statement
cycles (Ortoleva, 2004). The first model has been defined as interpersonal
communication, which takes a bidirectional form between two or more persons within a
group. The second model, also deeply rooted in our societies, is based on a one-to-
many type of communication, whereby an individual sends a single message to a
limited group of people. The third model, with which we have less experience in
historical terms, boils down to the mass media, whereby, thanks to the use of specific
mediation technologies, a single message can be sent to a mass of people, i.e.
forwarded to an audience of unknown size, which, as such, is unlimited from the start
(Cardoso 2008, Thompson 1995).
The fourth communication model, which seems to characterize our contemporary
societies, is formed by the capacity for globalization of communication, along with the
networking of the means for mass and interpersonal communication and, consequently,
by the emergence of networked mediation under different patterns of interaction. These
patterns may take the form of Self-Mass Communication (Castells, 2009), which takes
place when using Twitter, blogs or SMS; Interpersonal Communication Multimedia,
which happens when we use MSN or Google Chat or even Skype; One-to-Many
Mediated Communication, when we use Facebook with our "friends" and, of course, the
cases of non-mediated mass communication and interpersonal communication. All
these patterns are based on the above-mentioned communication models and which,
through the evolution of mediation, allow them to reconfigure a new communication
model.
The organization of the uses and networking of the media included in this new
communication model is directly related to the different degrees of interactivity allowed
by the today’s media (Cardoso 2008).
If it is true that we have built communication models in our societies, it is equally true
that the main communication paradigms have shaped what the media of a given
system can be (Cardoso 2008). Our current communication paradigms seem to be built
around a rhetoric based mainly on the importance of the moving image, combined with
1 See.: http://jontaplin.com/
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the availability of new ways of accessing information, and with new and innovative
roles, which are now also delivered to users, and which has brought about profound
changes in information and entertainment patterns.
Our contents - be it news, information or entertainment - seem to have changed thanks
to the presence of content provided by actual media users and not just by the media
per se, giving rise to the co-existence of different information models for different
people. However, not only newsworthy information has changed, so has entertainment.
The innovation in entertainment models is reflected both in the availability of user-
generated content, and in the amendments made by media companies on their search
for new content and "shapes" of their experiences with the blurring of boundaries
between traditional genres programming and new approaches to social values (such as
privacy and private life), along with changes within the social appropriation of time,
space and ethics, as reflected in the way stories are told and scripts are written.
The communication model developed in information societies, where the predominant
paradigm of social organization is based on the network (Castells, 2002) is called
Networked Communication (Cardoso, 2009). This model does not replace previous
ones, but tends to link them together, producing new forms of communication, and
enabling new ways of facilitating capacity, therefore communication autonomy.
In information societies, where the network is a central element of the organization, a
new communication model is taking shape: this is a model characterized by a new
interpersonal network, a one-to-many, which connects audiences, participants, users,
broadcasters, and publishers in a single array of network media.
In a networked communication environment, mediation (Silverstone, 2006), media
diets (Aroldi & Colombo, 2003), media matrixes (Meyrovitz, 1985), and the
communication system itself (Ortoleva, 2004) have been transformed. These
transformations in the relations between distinct media, which currently experience
more of a networking interconnection than a true convergence - either in terms of
hardware, services or networks – turn mediation into an integrated experience,
combining the use of different media: from the telephone to TV, the newspaper to the
video game, from Internet to the radio, from movies to mobile phones, placing users,
their practices and necessary competences once more at the centre of analysis
(Livingstone, 1999; Cardoso, 2007; Cardoso, 2008).
It is in this context that the use of social networking evolves, sometimes as self-mass
communication, as in the case of Twitter, others as mediated communication from one-
to-many, as with Facebook.
II. Are the internet "social networks” social networks?
”The purpose and potential of these large virtual social networks has not yet been t
unveiled, but no doubt they affect and promote ways of relating”
(Machado & Tijiboy, 2003).
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The study of networks, which started in the field of Exact Sciences with Ëuler’s Graph
Theory, translated into the field of Social Sciences in three models: the random
networks model, the small-world model and the scale-free networks model (Recuero
2004: 4).
Erdös and Rényi’s random networks model explains the workings of social networking
through the party metaphor: a mere connection between each of the guests at a party
would be enough for everyone to be connected by the end of it (Recuero, 2004: 4).
Thus, from an individual common to all, a cluster is formed by a group of
interconnected people, and this connection allows a future relationship between various
clusters.
Granovetter’s small-world model distinguishes social ties, separating strong ties
(among close friends) from weak ones (between mere acquaintances): if the former
bring together people who have shared interests, creating clusters or communities, the
latter allow not only the interaction between individuals belonging to different clusters,
but also between the communities to which they belong, thereby creating a social
network (Recuero, 2004: 5-6). From this theory, Watts and Strogatz demonstrated how
easy it is to establish a connection among members of different communities: the
average distance between any two people on the planet does not exceed a small
number of others, and their interaction simply requires that some random links
between groups take place (Buchanan, 2002).
The scale-free networks model emerged as a critique to Watts’ vision: networks do not
have an inherent randomness but specific laws, such as the preferred connection ("rich
get richer") (Barabási, 2003). Moreover, the networks are not equal and the worlds are
not small, given the existence of highly connected factors (hubs). Accordingly, any
individual will prefer to connect to another who has a large number of connections, as
this will allow him to access them all. This is evidence of the existence of a preferred
connection: the hubs are "the rich that get richer", given that, as they have an
immense range of contacts, they will also be the most sought after by those around
them (Recuero, 2004: 6).
However, can we transfer these models on to online social networks?
In the random networks model, there seems to be added value in explaining the
connection between hubs and other participants through randomization - after all, the
former only contact others to promote their own profiles, ignoring the characteristics
and interests of the latter. However, not all invitations in social networks are based on
this premise, as many are justified by personal interests, such as reconnect with
friends, establish business contacts or find a love relationship (Recuero, 2004: 7 et
seq.).
In the small-world model, the degree of separation between members of an online
social network is very small, it is true, but not because this is a rule based on two types
of ties (weak and strong): it is so because there are individuals who see accumulating
contacts as an end in itself, even if they never interact with those whom Recuero calls
"friends around the world" or Barabási describes as hubs, "people who are highly
connected, with a vast number of friends, and who contribute significantly to the
disappearance of distance between individuals in the system "(Barabási, 2004: 7 et
seq.).
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As for the scale-free networks model, Recuero advocates that it is impossible to apply it
to its full extent in the absence of a preferred connection: the hubs are the ones that
randomly invite other users to their contact list and not the reverse, to serve their sole
purpose (the "collection of profiles."). In the absence of any interaction other than the
original, can we really take these elements as belonging to a true social network?
(Recuero, 2004: 7 et seq.).
The analysis and explanation of how virtual networks work just from the models applied
to non Internet-mediated networks is difficult, because many of its features do not fit
or even contradict the premises of the models presented. However, this does not
invalidate the existence of social networks in the online medium, as they exist from the
moment in which individuals are active in this context. We are just facing a reality that
fits to its own context the limitations and advantages of the interests of social ties
shared by all users, (Cardoso, 2003; Schroeder, 2005: 2). To speak of forms of social
relationship on the Internet is to discuss how citizens use the new communication
possibilities, and how they stand up to their advantages and difficulties. Or, as Bennett
affirms, it is the interaction between the Internet and its users - and, in turn, their
interactions in material social contexts - that constitute the matrix within which we can
find the power of new media in creating different spaces for discourse and coordination
of actions (2003:18).
Some authors see nothing exceptional in these new networks, which will be just ways
of sociability transposed to new platforms: it is, for example, the opinion of Wellman,
for whom "Computer-Mediated Communication is just one of many technologies used
by people and through which existing community networks communicate "(Hamman,
1998). It is clear that Wellman bases his views on the premise that the purpose of most
virtual contacts is to be transposed to life offline, which is not always the case: many
virtual links tend to be kept in those spaces, and may never translate into to face-to-
face contact, not least due to geographical distance (Recuero, 2004: 9).
In the discussion about the territoriality of communities on the Internet, a distinction
between online communities and virtual communities is advanced. Online communities
are associated with the recreation, in cyberspace - the area without the size and
characteristics of physical space – of places which were already associated with offline
communities. In turn, virtual communities are associated with the establishment of
communities in cyberspace without any correspondence with a pre-existing physical
space, that is, meeting points for all who share a common set of interests, but whose
meeting in the same cybernetic location is not possible given the geographic distance
or other constraints (Cardoso, 1999).
From the cross analysis between the network theories and the empirical dimension
associated with sites called Social Networking Sites (SNS) like Facebook, Hi5, Orkut, or
microblogging like Twitter, it seems clear that we have social networks in the sense of
social interaction spaces and creation of autonomy.
III. Networked social practice on the internet
There is a basic question in the analysis of social networks on the Internet: what do we
do with social networks? Between the technological potential and actual use lies a
whole domestication process (Silverstone, 1994) that marks where the technology had
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evolved in terms of its use. The figure below shows the kind of diverse SNS uses in
Portugal
Fig I – “Which tools do you use most on your social network account?”
Source: CIES ISCTE, A Sociedade em Rede, 2010
N=1255 (total responses); n=35 (users of the Internet and social network platforms)/ 25% of total
respondents; 56% of Internet users.
From these uses, a possible division stands out in the activities aimed at strengthening
social ties with friends and acquaintances (Messaging, Chat, Birthday Alerts, Writing on
the Wall), managing social capital (Search for Friends, Sending Gifts, Games, Group
Creation), entertainment (Quizzes and Tests), identity expression (Video Posting), and
social intervention (Supporting Causes). This article will focus primarily on social
intervention in Internet networks. There are very significant developments with regard
to online social networks, especially in relation to the spread and reliability of
information: for example, CNN has said it fears more competition from networks like
Facebook or Twitter than from other television broadcasters2. Trust in this type of
sources appears to have been encouraging their use, supplanting the search for
information in other media. Of course we can never forget that we are analyzing the
cyber world and not world reality - as we know, television and its contents are still the
medium citizens give priority to, in particular due to their easy access to the technology
used and the fact they do not need immediate specific literacy. Given the exponential
growth of networks promoted by Facebook and Twitter, we need to better understand
what they offer.
Like other social networks, Facebook allows one to create a profile, whereby the user
enters information ranging from name, age or marital status, to data such as
ideological and political views, or causes espoused. There are mechanisms for
maintaining privacy, if not anonymity: the use of nicknames and the non-placement of
photos or personal information, although not the most common options, are real
2 See.: http://www.agenciafinanceira.iol.pt/empresas/media-cnn-facebook-twitter-hi5-agencia-
financeira/1146270-1728.html
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possibilities. Users can support causes, institutions or people, and they also have the
opportunity to join debate forums. They can also communicate through asynchronous
messages (a priori, only visible to them), chats, and through public posts, accessible to
all their contacts. In the case of the latter, users’ direct contacts (or indirect, if so
determined) may comment on content and have the possibility to share it.
Currently, Facebook is the social network on the Internet that brings together a greater
number of supporters (517.480,460 users worldwide, and 149.976,980 individuals
registered in Europe alone3), giving rise to such devotion as to elicit the emergence of
pathological behaviours45. As a result of this success, its advertising revenues have
been increasing exponentially, surpassing the highest expectations: in 2009, they
reached $ 800 million, with net income of tens of millions6. Thus, Facebook becomes a
"mediated communication from one-to-many", since each user knows who his/her
"friends" are, as he/she authorizes their "friendship." Only after acceptance by the
friend can he start being a "friend" to the person who invited him.
Twitter has other characteristics, because it is a form of microblogging7 based on the
instant publishing of text of up to 140 characters. Twitter allows the use of instant text
messaging, primarily to share experiences and opinions among communities of citizens
(Java, Song, Finin & Tseng, 2007: 2; Miard, 2009: 2). However, not everyone uses it in
the same way: whereas some are constant sources of information and commentary,
others just watch the dissemination of opinions, without active participation.
According to a study conducted on these microbblogers, the most common posts focus
on the daily routine, on what the user is doing at the moment and on his/her particular
mood (Java, Finin, Song & Tseng, 2007: 6/7). In what regards talks, there is no
possibility for direct response to a message posted by a third person, as with Facebook,
which is why users have chosen to use the "@" symbol followed by the username of the
user with whom they want communicate.
The dissemination of constantly updated daily information is also one of the most
interesting applications of Twitter, and has already proven to allow a very rapid
awareness of the user population, apart from being a simple way for those who do not
have other ways of communicating their indignation with regimes that are dictatorial or
restrictive of freedom of expression8 (Correia, undated: 4). In fact, due to the media
convergence , it is now possible to use mobile phones for text messaging instead of
accessing the homepage, enabling the dissemination of a variety of content from any
location.
Of course all this ease of access and unrestricted content has less positive implications:
the danger of misinformation, especially if propagated by the strongest hubs. Rumours
3 See.: http://www.facebakers.com/countries-with-facebook/
4 Obsession medical clinics: http://www.ionline.pt/conteudo/52583-viciados-no-facebook-ja-ha-clinicas-
tratar-obsessao.
5 See.: http://www.facebakers.com/countries-with-facebook/
6 See:http://www.tvi24.iol.pt/media-e-comunicacoes/facebook-redes-sociais-media-internet-agencia-
financeira/1171052-5239.html.
7 It differs from blogging, particularly because it only allows a small number of characters and because it
is related to a rate of updates that is much greater than blogging (Java, Song, Finin & Tseng, 2007: 2)
8 The organisation Reporters Sans Frontières (v.g. http://en.rsf.org/) fights for press freedom. It has
headquarters in Paris and offices in several countries. Its site, built in three languages, maps out the
aggressions of authoritarian governments against journalists and the media (Moraes, 2001: 8).
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are quickly repeated and amplified through this network, especially if generated or
shared by members with more contacts.
Between supporters and pessimists, both with strong arguments on the matter under
consideration, the truth is that social networking on the Internet and in other
mediation areas, such as telephone networks, force us to rethink the social and political
societies of the 21st century. What motivates individuals to participate in new forms of
social relationships through mediation?
The idea of a platform in which all citizens are invited to rationally discuss the issues of
the society they belong to, facilitating the flow of information and knowledge, is the
ideal fourth estate: the media in general should act like that, allowing grassroots voices
to reach decision makers (Hartley, 1992) - the materialization of Habermas’ concept of
public sphere, the Agora of Athens or New England’s town-hall, something that does
not seem to occur today (Cardoso, 2003). This challenging but desirable view of the
media was heavily criticized, especially because it would never be equalitarian: if, in
the past, only the literate bourgeoisie could access the contents of newspapers in order
to foster the exchange of ideas, nowadays only an elite could participate fully in such
an occurrence.
Given this state of the art, some authors see in new media in general, and in online
social networks in particular, not just one way of achieving the debate that has not
taken place in traditional media, but a means for civic participation, where common
interests allow soliciting opinions, decisions and interventions in specific areas. In part,
this seems to find some echo: as Castells points out, "in the international arena, new
transborder social movements, rising to defend women’s causes, human rights,
environmental preservation and political democracy, are making the Internet an
essential tool for disseminating information, organizing, and mobilizing "(2002: 475).
This possibility is even more relevant if we look at the general disappointment with
political life and the increasing distrust in democracy9 and its institutions. Discussing,
deciding, and implementing decisions would be transposed or shared between modern
institutions and the public through the Internet (Cardoso, 2003). To the extent that the
mass media and political elites, in their eagerness to regain new audiences and
supporters, have already expressed their interest in joining computer-mediated
communication, especially social networks. As Castells argues, the study of the
transformation of power relations in the new communication space should consider the
interaction between political actors, social agents and the media business (2007:254).
The use of these networks have proven a skilful way of communicating without trace,
which is useful in countries where communication is still open to explicit censure, as in
China or Myanmar (Ekman, 2007: 39). In fact, censorship or manipulation of
information by political groups or lobbies becomes more difficult: horizontal
transmission of information, often live, by citizens creates an aura of truth very
different from the one that currently fills the political world (Castells, 2007:251).
9 According to Eurobarometer, in relation to Portugal, “only 40 percent of respondents consider themselves
satisfied with the functioning of national democracy, compared with a European average of 53 percent.
The levels of satisfaction with the functioning of national democracy are superior only to those expressed
by the new Member States (NMS-12) like Slovakia (40%), Slovenia (37%), Hungary (23%), Latvia
(21%), Bulgaria (21%), Romania (18%) and Lithuania (18%) (Executive Summary, 2009, p. 4).
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This form of "citizen journalism" is further simplified by the current convergence of
platforms10: the possibility of placing any information in the web world via mobiles or
by transferring content through online networks lends itself not only to increased
globalization of social interaction through virtual networks, as it allows almost
simultaneous circulation of any event that deserves the attention of its transmitter.
Moreover, the use of mobile phones to spread images and consequently raise the
awareness of the international community has proved essential in situations as diverse
as Seattle, or in the case of the Iranian and Mozambicans protests.
In the Internet arena, organizations and people gather together to change something in
many different themes and perspectives, fighting for visibility and projecting the
consequences. As Moraes writes, "The Internet is fostering the struggles of civil society
groups to promote social justice in a world that globalizes inequalities of all kinds. (...)
Most of these entities aim to strengthen civil society in the process of universalizing
values and democratic rights. They bring together concrete or symbolic interests and
needs, promoting actions in favour of citizenship "(2001:2).Therefore, social networks
play an extremely important role with regard to socially, economically or politically
excluded groups, giving voice to minorities or enabling the raising of resources and the
setting up of and networks that share their aims.
Organizations have been using the Internet for a long time to spread their purposes
and actions more easily at no cost, and to raise the largest number of members. These
practices led to the creation of intervention tools, such as virtual campaigns, discussion
groups, online manifestos, and links murals, creating an arena for further mobilization.
The possibility of a reaching a range of people without the limitations imposed by
gatekeepers (as happens in television or in the press) makes Computer-Mediated
Communication (CMC) extremely relevant to all citizens and NGOs whose objectives
include denouncing, exercising pressure and raise political awareness11 (Moraes, 2001:
3; Bennett, 2003: 3). Virtual NGOs have also begun to make full use of their
interconnection with the aim of sharing expertise, resources, costs, and space, and
each node incorporates new users who potentially become producers and transmitters
of information (Moraes, 2001:3). There is no doubt that social networks have allowed a
more open and pluralistic debate, becoming promoters of a civic and political
participation that otherwise appears to be fading away (Cardoso & Neto, 2003).
Even if the globalization phenomenon means we run the risk of uniformity of thought
and critical analysis, it is also this phenomenon that allows once-distant regions
become accessible to all: their problems, victories, and movements are not only
broadcast but can find supporters in remote locations around the globe. Accordingly,
we have a conjugation of individual matters conceived for local use and a global world:
in fact, people think in the context of their own realities, but use virtual media for its
diffusion, thus acting globally (Castells, 2007:249). For this reason, the Internet and
other technologies, such as mobile phones and digital video, enable people to organize
politics in a way that overcomes the limitations of time, space, identity and ideology,
10 Over 70 million Europeans already access the Internet via their mobile phones, and do it once a week
for one hour a day on average - Study of the European Interactive Advertising Association (EIAA), see
http://dn.sapo.pt/inicio/ciencia/interior.aspx?content_id=1512132&seccao=Tecnologia.
11 Take the case of Amnesty International, one of the first NGOs to use the Internet: in 2001 it had one
million members in 160 countries and 50 websites (Moraes, 2001:7).
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resulting in the expansion and coordination of activities, which possibly would not occur
by other means (Bennett, 2003: 6).
Activist networks on causes have been addressed differently by distinct authors, and
some see an "army on the net" (Holstein, 2002, unpaged) or a "smart mob"
(Rheingold, 2002) in them. However, Bennett points to the difficulty in accepting such
warlike or close to interest groups views when the non-institutional organization and
the absence of a hierarchy to respect are essential to understand the networking work
of activist communities (2003: 9 et seq.). As such, the author proposes the approach
presented by Gerlach and Hines, called SPIN: we are talking about segmented,
polycentric and integrated networks:
- segmented, given the fluidity of its borders in relation to formal organizations, non-
institutionalized groups and individual activists and individuals, where cooperation is
constant;
- polycentric, since there are no leaders but centres to coordinate the activities of
networks;
- integrated, due to its horizontal structure, assuming activism is carried out by all
members.
The first case study of a popular movement organized through the Internet took place
in Seattle in 1999, at the meeting of the World Trade Organization. The world saw not
only the demonstration of some fifty thousand people filling the streets of Seattle in a
protest against Neoliberalism, but also protests in 82 cities in the U.S., Europe and
South America (Bennett, 2003: 25; Moraes 2001: 9).
In these cases, the Internet proved to be important both for the organization of
demonstrations and for the global transmission and dissemination of events. Thus, the
protest gained a global force, determining the agenda setting of the media and,
accordingly, of public opinion. As a result, the political authorities were forced to cancel
the meeting, showing that the “losing” forces of the economic system had managed,
through a conflict relationship, to seize the power they claimed (Della Porta and Diani,
2006: 167).
IV. Networked communication and social movements
A social movement is a collective attempt by a certain number of people to change
individuals or institutions and social structures
(Zald and Ash, 1966).
Nowadays, activism seems a regular practice that is well received by users of social
networks: environmental causes, defence of human rights or reaction to political facts
are subject to frequent attention. However, does this reflect social movements, or is it
simply the sum of a set of shared acts of individual protest? Many authors have tried to
define what, among various possible collective actions, is commonly called social
movement. This debate has generated both demand for greater rigour in the
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description of the aspects that make up this reality (creating more or less open
notions), and the denial of the actual concept12.
For Della Porta and Diani (2006: 20), social movements necessarily comprise three
components: conflict relationships; intricate networks among the actors involved, and a
lasting collective identity that goes beyond individual will and the mere event limited in
time. Let us examine these aspects.
At the outbreak of a social movement, individuals are involved in conflict relationships
with clearly identified adversaries, both seeking to control the same object. Thus, those
directly involved in social movements should be considered to be challengers/defenders
of existing institutional authority, whether of political, corporate, religious, or
educational nature (Snow, Soule & Kries, 2007: 8/9).
The definition of strategies, coordination of initiatives and regulation of individual
behaviour depends on ongoing negotiations between individuals and the organizations
involved, developed through contacts made through informal networks. This
organization can be of various types and levels, but in no case an individual, by
himself, represents a move, because the latter assumes the existence of shared
ambitions by different actors.
Finally, these actors share a collective identity that reflects a commitment to the cause
beyond a certain number of protests or the total of specific campaigns (Snow, Soule &
Kriese 2007: 10/11). Thus, as stated by Della Porta and Diani (2006: 23), the
dynamics of a social movement is taking place when individual episodes of collective
action are perceived as components of a more enduring action, rather than discrete
events (...). Even if a representative democracy presupposes that the interests of
citizens are represented, the disappointment of the latter with regard to
institutionalized political organizations cannot but be noted, leading to the development
of new forms of participation (Cardoso & Neto, 2003: 108). Along with institutional
tools that have long been used, such as the work provided to political parties or
attending political meetings, new means of conducting politics are emerging, like
signing petitions, boycotts, occupations, demonstrations, cutting off traffic, and non-
trade union strikes (2006: 166), some of which are initiated, and certainly
disseminated, through social networks.
The concept of protest is, itself, controversial. Being a form of collective action, it is not
the only one, and it does not necessarily have a radical or conflict intent. Rather, it is
an unorthodox course of action aimed at mobilizing public opinion to exercise pressure
on policy makers (Della Porta and Diani, 2006: 165).
This takes us back to the question on the origin of social movements: given the
influence they already hold, organizations standing close to power do not resort to this
kind of strategy. Rather, protest is the political source of the non-powerful (Lipsky,
1965): those committed to a common cause and who intend to press their
institutionalized "opponents" need their actions to have visibility to garner the
sympathy of public opinion.
12 For example, this is the position of Dieter Opp, when he states he prefers the notion of protest group to
that of social movement, defining it as a community of actors who want to achieve their goal or shared
objectives, influencing the decisions of a target (2009: 41)
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Support given to causes in the context of social networks typically arises as a result of
the action of formal or informal groups with ability to mobilize others, because its
success depends on the capacity to get the word out and get third parties to trigger an
action which, at least, results in public support for a given position. The argument that
we can leave here is that support to causes in social networks have characteristics of
conflict relationships, of smaller or larger networks among stakeholders, and of
formation of a collective identity. This last point, which we may consider to be more
controversial, is echoed when membership starts to be listed in the individual profiles of
those who lend their support and, as such, becomes a shareable part of the personal
identity with regard to third parties. Therefore, it can be argued that social movements
also are forged on the Internet’s social networks.
V. From Washington to Tehran, passing through Maputo: Networks
between symbolism and action
"We can see that virtual social networks are major circulation channels in the flow of
information, links, values and social discourse, which expand, delimit and fuse territories
" (Machado & Tijiboy 2003).
Internet use during the election campaign of Barack Obama in 2008 has often been
cited, being mentioned as one of the main reasons for the electoral success of the
current U.S. President. The campaign website, Obama's appearance at various social
networks - particularly on Facebook - the mailing list of supporters, among other
things, left a strong imprint on this campaign, which became somehow an inspiring
model for several candidacies that have since taken place almost everywhere in
Europe. (Plouffe, 2009).
One could argue that the model for the Obama campaign was appropriated and
reinvented in the 2009 Iranian post-election context, in the form of a social movement
generated in social networks and brought to the streets of Tehran. Given the election
results of June 2009 – with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared the winner two hours after
the close of the polls - the Iranian population upraised because it believed the result to
be fraudulent. Supporting the main opposition leader, the reformist candidate Mir
Hussein Mousavi, citizens organized themselves in what is called the Green
Movement13, which is still active today despite all state police efforts to end it14.
Given the popular reactions and feelings shared in them, we aim to demonstrate not
only the existence of a genuine social movement developed and implemented through
online social networking, but also the existence of virtual communities that use it as a
protest tool. Moreover, the essentiality of CMC is so obvious that those targeted by the
movement not only censor the information conveyed as they even derail the network
connections in key moments of domestic politics.
13 See.: http://translate.google.pt/translate?hl=pt-
PT&sl=en&tl=pt&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cbsnews.com%2Fstories%2F2010%2F06%2F10%2Fopinion%
2Fmain6568553.shtml&anno=2
14 The International Federation of Human Rights (FIDH) said that about two thousand people were arrested
in just 15 days of protests: http://aeiou.expresso.pt/musavi-insiste-em-novas-eleicoes-no-irao=f523600
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First, the conflict relationship between those who have institutionalized power and
authority (in this case the government of Ahmadinejad and the Guardian Council that
validated his alleged victory) and those who want to remove such power from those
hands towards a change of regime (which includes, of course, not only Mousavi and all
his political supporters, but also citizens who, in the streets of Tehran and in online
social networks, require a new ballot.)
The organizational format of all those who wish to contest the elections is in fact based
on an informal network. Without any pre-established hierarchy or original vertical
relations, citizens defend their common interests in a democratic relationship of
equality that, of course, never questioned the power of initiative that is more or less
present in each of the existing links. Mousavi may incite protest, but the initiatives
associated with the Green Movement do not all depend on him. At best, he may be a
hub, but he can never be regarded as a leader in the relations among the communities
that profess the common interest of democracy and pluralism in Iran.
As important as the previous references, we are in the presence of a collective identity:
we are not talking about a fleeting protest, a one-off demonstration: we have a
collective feeling shared by the masses that justice behind a political process should
occur. To this end, efforts are brought together, forms of communication are created
among all supporters (individuals or collective), personal accounts are developed so
that, globally, everyone can follow the progress of political and social developments in
Iran.
The growing awareness of the essentiality of the virtual world of politics has a place not
only among citizens: the actual traditional media are starting to pay attention to
content published by virtual communities, to petitions circulating through them, and to
peaceful demonstrations that are being organized in this way. Indeed, the former do
not pay much attention to demonstrations: as they focus on the "now" ignoring the
information context, activist actions that not translate into violent demonstrations or
protests seldom capture media attention, which means, not infrequently, that the
media receptors have complete ignorance of the purposes or intentions of the
organizations involved (Bennett, 2003: 3).
The fact that Twitter was the channel that warned about the poor coverage of the
Green Movement by traditional media strikes us as an example of what has been said
before. In fact, "on 13 June 2009, when protests began to escalate, which was ignored
by the Iranian media, information on Twitter flowed in real-time15. Referring specifically
to CNN, the network created a gate watching movement in which citizens questioned
the quality and the true intentions of the information conveyed by the media.
Influenced by this warning or not, the truth is that this company has redoubled its
attention (De Tolledo, undated: 5). Thus, the agenda setting of the activists with the
media in general can produce changes in how priorities are established in the media
(Web, undated: 4 /5) - how to "encourage" forgotten "stories", marginalized sources
and the return to civil society and its informal dynamics at the expense of prefabricated
and selected information focused on institutional mechanisms "(undated: 5 et seq.). In
addition, there is the fact that political and economic interests do not always turn away
from the media, and even match those shared by opponents of social movement
(Moraes, 2001: 4; Castells, 2007: 250). This is the case in Iran: by manipulating the
15 See.: Twitter: A window to Iran: http://aeiou.visao.pt/twitter-uma-janela-para-o-irao=f513147
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national media, which can only convey expressions of support for Ahmadinejad, the
current leader has even prohibited the coverage of protests by international media16.
Zuckerman believes that the reason why social media is so interesting is that
international media do not have correspondents on the ground17.
Aware of the dynamism shown by these communities that use the new media as a
major interaction vehicle, Ahmadinejad’s supporters operated in two distinct ways: they
not only censored content and hindered the use of sites, blogs18, virtual social
networks, and even mobile telephone network, but also imprisoned those responsible
for transmitting information not seen as being favourable to the regime19. Moreover,
this awareness did not start just after protests had began, otherwise the suspension of
Twitter hours before the elections would not be justified20. With regard to this type of
censorship, users of CMC have been trying to warn about ways to disseminate
information, especially when using the two most common tags: iranelection and gr88
(Reference to the Green Revolution and the current year in the Persian calendar:
1388)21 22. In these cases, Twitter users were advised not to reveal their IP address,
not to reveal in any manner the name or location of a genuine source of the Green
Movement, or even rushing to respond, since the security forces were using the same
social network23.
Thus, it seems undeniable that the Iranian Government of Mr. Ahmadinejad is afraid of
the media in general and online social networks in particular: in fact, there is no point
in censuring spaces that have no power at home or abroad. Although censorship does
not advocate the essentiality of social networks, it seems undeniable that censorship,
especially in key political occasions, shows it finds them important, even if only
potentially.
As in other social movements or collective actions, in the case of Iran, online social
networks have also been heavily used. If we examine them, we will see a wide range of
virtual communities sharing a common purpose, their members sharing a relationship
of equality and fairness not using any hierarchies; in these social networks, space is
often exceeded as national issues are transposed to international reality, and joint
determination is often accomplished through cybernetic mediation. With this type of
communication (many-to-many), citizens and NGOs have succeeded in mobilizing
supporters around the world, aligning global protests and collecting signatures for
petitions, giving global visibility to a national issue.
16 At the announcement of a demonstration, the professional licences of journalists working for foreign
media were declared invalid for a period of 48 hours:
http://aeiou.expresso.pt/gen.pl?p=stories&op=view&fokey=ex.stories/551691
17 See.: http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/jun2009/tc20090617_803990.htm
18 When a student protest was organised, “authorities blocked most student websites”:
http://aeiou.expresso.pt/gen.pl?p=stories&op=view&fokey=ex.stories/551691
19 “Following protests against the reelection of Mahmud Ahmadinejad, four thousand people were detained,
and, of these, over fifty bloggers and journalists”:
http://aeiou.expresso.pt/gen.pl?p=stories&op=view&fokey=ex.stories/541076
20 See.: http://boingboing.net/2009/06/15/iranian-election-upr.html
21 The only two hashtags considered to be legitimate used by bloggers in this context are #iranelection and
#gr88; all others may induce the thinning out of conversation
http://www.boingboing.net/2009/06/16/cyberwar-guide-for-i.html
22 An example is: when acceding Mousavi’s page on Twitter, one reads: #iranelection In case of the arrest
of any of the Green movement’s leaders, take to the streets in Tehran: Enghelab to Azadi. Tell everyone.
(10:50 PM Dec 30th, 2009)
23 See.: http://www.boingboing.net/2009/06/16/cyberwar-guide-for-i.html
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An example illustrating the importance of the Twitter online social network took place
on 15 June 2009, when the possibility of suspending the network for maintenance
purposes was advanced. Faced with the concern of Iranians users and followers
throughout the world, given that only two days had elapsed since the release of the
elections results and the start of protests, those in charge of Twitter opted to defer the
procedure24. This concern seems plausible when we note that one of the most popular
pages on Twitter, with more than 25,631 followers, is about the reformist candidate25.
Out of curiosity, it must be noted that Mousavi also has a Facebook profile26 with 3,966
contacts, a YouTube channel27 with almost 70,000 views, and a Flickr page where he
collects pictures of the protests against him28.
Fig. II – Profile of Mir Hossein Mousavi on Facebook
Source: http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#!/mousavi?ref=search
Nevertheless, several authors defend that we do not face a real revolution in the means
for coordinating social movements, but a utility for increasing global visibility,
sometimes merely the result of a particular international context.
We believe it is impossible to justify all the development and coordination of a social
movement through online networks. Mishra argues that the number of citizens using
such networks is too small when compared with the size of the protests that we have
seen29. And if it is true that citizens have the means to give their personal account of
experiences and to access to all sorts of information and values shared by certain
communities (Castells, 2007: 256), the fact remains that not everyone will have access
to these platforms. However, the peculiar Iranian case should be pointed out: with a
very young population (average 26.4 years of age30), more than 23 million Iranians had
24 See: http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/jun2009/tc20090617_803990.htm
25 See: http://twitter.com/mousavi1388
26 See: http://www.facebook.com/mousavi1388
27 See: http://www.youtube.com/mousavi1388
28 See: http://www.flickr.com/photos/mousavi1388
29 See: http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/jun2009/tc20090617_803990.htm
30 See.: http://www.middleeastdirectory.com/cs_iran.htm
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Internet connection in 2007 and 29.77 million had mobile phones31 - these are relevant
numbers considering that Iranian population in 2008 was just under 66 million (From
Tolledo, undated: 4).
Any such analysis must be tempered by the fact that, as in other online communities,
many of the participants are mere spectators who belong to a Facebook group or have
a host on Twitter without actually materializing this support in the political world offline
(Chong, 2009: 18). It is more reasonable to say that only some citizens use Twitter to
organize protests in Iran, with blogs, SMS and even offline communication media being
the most common means used for internal organization.
We must not forget that not everyone involved may be interested in active participation
in online social networks: the "profile collectors”, who rarely seek interaction with their
contacts, are examples of this. Conversely, there are also real "promoters of public
debate", as already noted by some authors: “there are strategic agents in the networks
who act as facilitators of links and information flow, and who stimulate debate,
propose, challenge other members of the group to participate and generate or relieve
tension in the articulation of differences"(Machado & Tijiboy, 2003:4).As it happens in a
society that is not mediated by the Internet, not all citizens are interested in active
participation, for which reason we should not expect interaction and interest from
everyone involved in social networks. We must not forget that people are the ones
using digital platforms to achieve their purposes, not the reverse: through them,
curiosity may be raised, and it may be possible to inform and even educate. But
networks can never override the human will to use it: we need to show the possibilities
and be aware that they are basically just that. In essence, the real question is whether
the users of virtual communities use them as a means to make their voices heard when
no other means permit it, if they only reproduce online the attitudes they have offline,
or if all those with no previous interest in public debate develop new interests and skills
to be socially involved.
However, mobilization and the international publicity of events already owe a lot to that
social network, which also allows connection with political exiles (Chong, 2009: 18): as
Correia states, "one of the most important features of computer-mediated
communication is its ability to allow the many-to-many dialogue and its capacity to
facilitate communication among geographically dispersed groups and individuals
"(Correia, undated: 4).
Still, not all results in the use of this and other virtual networks are positive: the
unlimited proliferation of information runs the risk that, instead of informing, it will
create information chaos. Basically, we speak of a general confusion and the
emergence of certain forms of autism (Rheingold, 1993), of the multiplication of
personal visions, little reliable information or with less clear intentions that might lead
to what Correia calls the "lack of reflexivity paralyzed by the new fetish value that is
speed in real time" (undated: 6). Public sphere as a democratic achievement faces, in
fact, an obstacle: the so-called digital divide, the critical stance that allows us to
disentangle information from noise or knowledge from "readings based solely on any
common sense" become more essential to the realization of democracy through online
networks (ibid, 2006: 401; Correia, undated: 6 et seq.) However, it seems safe to
consider the possibility that information survives outside the context of news and the
31 See.: http://www.middleeastdirectory.com/cs_iran.htm
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exclusive mediation of journalists. We do not live in a reality of mass communication or
in a context where it is totally irrelevant. Networked communication (Cardoso, 2009)
presupposes coexistence and interdependence not only of communication models but
also among many different actors, be they users, journalists or participants
(Silverstone, 2006).
VI. How Far Do The Voices Get To?
As we have seen, debate and information flow seem to be, in itself, a big plus. Despite
the fact that many of the views advanced in social networking sites wish to change the
status quo, and wish to be heard by the powers in general, will they be consequential?.
Silveirinha believes not: "in cyber-organizations, due to the fact that people do not
develop face-to-face actions, strong bonds of 'affinity groups' can be limited to
maintaining a kind of 'virtual public' without power for action and influence, simply
replacing political battle with cyber-fighting, which is more or less inconsequential "
(undated: 12). Boyd also argues that there is no direct link between the information
conveyed through new technologies and those who should be its recipients: although
technology provides a public forum in which people can express different political
views, this does not guarantee that such views are heard" (2005: 3). According to the
author, although the population has been enticed to participate politically through
virtual networks, the truth is that, as a rule, new technologies have not allowed those
raised voices reach higher levels of political decision (2005:7). In this specific case, the
analysis is not easy and the results are not peaceful. First of all, this is because we
have to analyze what results are expected and, ultimately, what political participation
means to each of us. Should information and debate, without an end other than
themselves, be disregarded? The fact is, this way the Iranian authorities are
questioned, the power of "insiders" is undermined and the opponents lose sympathy.
However, are the outraged voices attaining their prime objective – i.e., to recover the
freedom to vote and disintegrate the Ahmadinejad government? According to Chong,
the current regime begins to reveal some cracks: the release of some prisoners to
demonstrate the good will of Islam, or even the way it has fought so ineffectively
against the international dissemination of information, showing some weakness before
rebel citizens and their supporters. All this may lead to future political and social
change in Iran. However, this is mere speculation, given the fact that Ahmadinejad
holds a military regime behind him (Chong, 2009:24). On this aspect, Boyd recalls that
democracy can not be looked at in purely quantitative terms, or based on institutions
seen as political agents per se, the process itself being of utmost importance: it is
important to encourage contact and influence among different groups, but without
crushing the individual. People should be able to find individual meaning in the process
(2005:11).
The Iranian Green Movement also represents a practical example of the adoption of a
networked communication model, where multiple mediation technologies are
interconnected and around a given objective. Thus, we can say that in the context of
protest, there are representations about the role that each media can have – i.e. the
media matrixes (Meyrovitz, 1985) - in achieving the goals of political autonomy. In
addition to these representations, there are communicative autonomy strategies based
on media diets (Colombo, 1993) that combine different technological networks with the
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aim of managing social networks, either through Bluetooth, mobile phone networks or
the Internet. The Iranian case discussed here also shows the prevalence of social
networking over networked technology, as exemplified by the adoption of Bluetooth for
using SMS after the telephone network was cut off. In this context, the population
resorted to Bluetooth to distribute digital flyers and videos in public places such as
cinemas, parks and public transport. Somehow, the same procedures can be detected
in Mozambique’s protests in September 2010 where, after the announcement of price
increases of essential goods, like bread, an SMS was circulated calling for protest.
These messages led to protest, which was followed by conflict with the authorities on
the streets of Maputo and other areas of the country, resulting in several deaths. As a
means to manage this conflict, and before announcing that prices would not increase,
either the government or the actual companies blocked the sending of SMSs for several
hours, only allowing voice communication and data access to the Internet. The
Mozambican protests also allowed the emergence of information practices based on the
relationship between newspapers and social networks, such as the newspaper
@verdade. During the times of greatest tumult in the streets of Maputo, a journalist
from @verdade and Facebook friends of both the newspaper and the journalist,
exchanged information on safe places and on the scale of protest in different parts of
the city from the street, via Blackberry or home and office computers. This journalist
also mediated, certified and validated incoming information to people on Facebook. In
turn, this sharing space on Facebook led to the rise of a campaign for peace in
Mozambique and was also through @verdade on Facebook that questions were posed
on who had a given operator and could send messages or not.
Somehow, the Mozambican case shows us a dual reality when it comes to social
networking. On the one hand, some have access only to mobile phone networks and
not to mobile Internet – due to the cost of equipment and of data connections. Those
are the ones who protested in the streets against the cost of living. On the other hand,
there are those who use other social networks, Facebook in this case, to understand
what is happening around the protest and not be caught by it. Finally, we have the
government and the telecommunications companies that can handle what type of use
can be permitted in terms of access and control of access gateways to communication.
What all three geographically and socially different examples (U.S., Iran and
Mozambique) show us is a present where, regardless of where we are or where we
look, an area of Networked Communication is germinating. We need to bear this
paradigm in mind to be able to understand how causes are supported and how protests
are carried out in our times.
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OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
ISSN: 1647-7251
Vol. 2, n.º 1 (Spring 2011), pp. 93-113
PEOPLE AND KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT IN ORGANIZATIONS
CHALLENGES OF THE NEXT DECADES
João Paulo Feijoo
Independent consultant in the areas of Quality, Business Process, Human Capital and Change
Management, and Country Manager for Portugal of Finalta. Guest lecturer in executive education and
postgraduate programmes (UAL). He was senior manager of the Millennium bcp (1990-2005), where
he headed the areas of quality, training and career development, recruitment, agency coordination,
and internal communication. He founded and directed the Eureko Academy (194-96). He was also
member and president of Eureko Human Resources Activity Group (1997-2002). He studied
Mechanical Engineering at IST, Lisbon. Professionally, he has attended a large number of courses and
seminars in the field of Human Resources and general management in Portugal and abroad, especially
the Seminar for Senior Management of BCP (INSEAD) and Programa de Alta Direcção de Empresa /
Company Senior Management Programme (AESE).
This article was written under the new Spelling Agreement
Abstract
In the next fifteen years the characteristics of organizations and the way they manage
human capital will be conditioned by the development of eight processes with global
presence: pre-eminence of knowledge, globalization, population ageing, importance of the
role of women, psychological contract, erosion of traditional authority, and the emergence of
new organizational values. These eight factors are analyzed here, and their evolving
tendencies are addressed.
These processes are combining to transform the organizations of the second and third
decades of the XXI century into more complex and pluralistic structures, with more diffuse
frontiers, open and disperse structures, and with work forces organized into different levels
of involvement which communicate among themselves and with the outside world through
global networks.
These organizations present new challenges to people management, including the
consequences of rising retirement age, occupation and productivity of older workers,
coexistence of three generations in the work force, intercultural intelligence, motivational
development, merit significance, talent management in open organizations, and new
leadership styles required in a more fluid, more spread out, and more egalitarian
environment.
We approach the Portuguese situation in the light of similarities and differences with regard
to the evolution of the conditioning factors analyzed here and in the light of measures
recommended for this issue in general. We identify its specific characteristics and discuss
the effect they may have on people management policies and practices to be adopted in the
period under consideration.
Keywords
People management; human capital; knowledge economy; global networks; open
organizations
How to cite this article
Feijoo, João Paulo (2011). "People and knowledge management in organizations. Challenges
of the next decades”. JANUS.NET e-journal of International Relations, Vol. 2, N.º 1, Spring
2011. Consulted [online] on date of last visit, observare.ual.pt/janus.net/en_vol2_n1_art7.
Article received in September 2010 and accepted for publication in March 2011
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People and knowledge management in organizations. Challenges of the next decades
João Paulo Feijoo
94
PEOPLE AND KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT IN ORGANIZATIONS
CHALLENGES OF THE NEXT DECADES
João Paulo Feijoo
Understanding the change
In the beginning of the second decade of the 21st century, the world faces a series of
unprecedented challenges in the history of humanity: depletion of food and energy
resources, climatic changes, devastation of habitats, overpopulation, urbanization and
global ageing, and profound alterations in the world economic and political order.
These events combine to trigger deep changes in all aspects of our lives: in the way we
relate to our family members, colleagues, and friends; in the way we travel and
communicate; and in the way we shop, the way we eat, and the way we work and
relax.
This change inevitably transforms organizations as economic agents and social
institutions and significantly affects the factors - mission, products, participants,
resources, and culture - which define and rule their activity. These changes also require
innovative responses to the way organizations manage their human capital - their
workers and the knowledge they possess and apply in the exercise of their activities.
In order to understand the meaning and reach of such responses, we need to identify
the factors which have the most direct impact on the situation of organizations and
their policies and practices of human capital management.
The selection of these factors is always subjective, rather than exhaustive, and dictated
by the author's preferences. There was, however, a preoccupation in selecting
processes sufficiently discreet and independent, which do not represent two facets of
the same reality, and concurrent enough so that their effects may be felt in the same
period of 10 to 20 years. The selection identified the following eight factors:
- Growing importance of knowledge as a factor in production
- Globalization
- Global ageing
- Technical evolution (in particular, but not exclusively, in the area of ICT -
Information and Communication Technologies)
- Growing importance of the role of women in organizations
- Changes in the psychological contract between the worker and the organization
- Erosion of traditional forms of authority
- Emergence of values such as corporate social responsibility (CSR) and the balance
between professional life and personal and family life (work-life balance).
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As we can attest, despite being independent, these factors are, to great extent,
interrelated: they are connected through a complex web of joint effects with multiple
and varied instances of mutual reinforcement or weakening, like waves on the surface
of a stretch of water with crests rising and troughs deepening as they intersect.
The factors
a. The predominance of knowledge as a factor in production
The second half of the 20th century witnessed the birth of knowledge workers: workers
whose activity requires the application of specialized knowledge acquired through
extensive formal education. There has always been an intellectual elite dedicated to
intensive-knowledge activities - medical doctors, professors, scientists, jurists - but the
mass expansion of a working class with such characteristics only started after World
War II, and over the next two decades it will become, no doubt, the largest
professional group.
Nowadays, knowledge is the most important, and the most wanting, production factor,
and its properties determine the characteristics of the so-called "knowledge societies"
and "knowledge economy".
Knowledge is specialized. Therefore, its incorporation into a final product implies the
intermediation of some form of organization that assures the required interdisciplinary
effort. Up until very recently, the most effective model was the functionally integrated,
centralized and concentrated company. These days, the immaterial nature of
knowledge, the existence of a global talent market, and the opportunities created by
ICT are giving rise to the emergence of radically innovative alternatives: partnerships,
open networked organizations, client and supplier participation (co-creation,
crowdsourcing), etc.
Knowledge quickly becomes obsolete. Such "perishable nature" requires continuous and
lifelong professional development, in addition to the initial training. Distinction between
"study" and "work" as two successive and separate parts of life will tend to disappear
over the next decades. In order to stay current, to remain in top form like a top
competition athlete, knowledge must be constantly applied and requires a number of
opportunities often out of reach of specialized departments. The solution may lie in the
autonomy, and later merging, of those units in order to provide services to several
organizations and to reach the level required to be sufficiently good in their area.
Knowledge is easily transmittable. Unlike facilities, stocks of raw-materials, and
machinery, it is difficult to confine knowledge to one place: at the end of the work day,
it walks out the company door along with the worker who possesses it. Attempts to
convert tacit knowledge into explicit knowledge, in other words, to codify and describe
it in order to make it independent from the individual who possesses it, invariably meet
with insurmountable obstacles of context and interpretation. Besides, its immaterial
nature allows its quick long-distance diffusion, nowadays greatly facilitated by the
existence of global networks.
In fact, knowledge workers tend to identify ever more with their specialty area rather
than with the organization they work for. Thanks to the ICT revolution, it is increasingly
easier to establish relationships with other "professionals in the same trade" working
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for other organizations. Their primary loyalty is shifting from the organization they
work for to the "trade" they practice.
The fact that knowledge is held by workers and not by organizations represents,
ironically, the fulfilment of the Marxist prophecy of collective appropriation of the
means of production. Paradoxically, however, through pension funds and other savings
and investment sources, organizations remain firmly in possession of the workers'
capital, while the workers control much of the capital of many companies (Drucker,
2001).
b. Globalization
Globalization is the process of integration of national economies into a transnational
economy through the flow of goods (international commerce), capital, people (tourism
and migration), and knowledge.
This process intensified at the end of the decade of the 1980s with the introduction of
three thousand million new consumers, producers and people with savings in the global
market economy as a consequence of the dynamic caused by the collapse of the Soviet
Bloc, the end of "proxy wars" between that bloc and the Western Bloc, and the opening
of China.
This expansion was supported by the liberalization of international trade, the flow of
capital, and the development of new information and communication technologies. By
drastically reducing transaction costs, it rendered dispensable organization models
based on centralization, concentration, and vertical integration. It also allowed the
externalization and relocation of large segments of value chains to countries or regions
with less expensive labour, thus leading to a great increase in the global production
capacity.
The result was a spectacular growth in the creation of wealth which led to a generalized
improvement in the quality of life of the world population.
Globalization gave rise to a global labour market where talent competes at the
planetary level. This market was boosted by the shortage that was beginning to be felt
as a consequence of demographic ageing and the nonalignment between the output of
educational systems and the demands of the economy. It proved especially dynamic in
the two extremes of the qualification spectrum - the lesser qualified workers, on the
one hand, and the highly specialized technical workers and top management, on the
other hand - fostering the immigration of lesser skilled workers to more developed
economies as well as the more recent phenomenon of "brain drain".
To this "long term" international mobility we must add international careers made-up of
expatriation of greater or lesser duration, as well as all types of business trips and what
may be described as " virtual mobility", regular contact with workers from other
countries and cultures that does not require physical mobility, made possible by the
predominance of "knowledge work" and supported by the new ICT.
All these mobility types are giving emergence to a work environment characterized by a
large expansion of relationship networks and an unprecedented intercultural exposure -
which, paradoxically, has been followed by the indiscriminate adoption of an Anglo-
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Saxon organization culture and a management model whose characteristics often are
not appropriate to the national cultures in question.
c. Global ageing
Out of the eight phenomena selected as factors in the future management of people,
global ageing is the one that presents a greater degree of certainty, as all
developments which determine the evolution of world population in the next two or
three decades have already taken place and are known.
This problem is not exclusive to the so-called developed countries. It is a global process
which, despite having started sooner in those countries, is already under way in the
emergent economies where, by the way, it will happen much faster.
In China, the fertility index is down to 1.79 - substantially lower than the 2.1
replacement threshold; in fact, it only reaches this value in some of the interior
provinces, and in the more developed coastal provinces it does not reach over 1.5. In
India, the national fertility rate is still 2.81. However, in a group of states with a
combined population of over two hundred million people, that rate has already fallen
below the replacement threshold.
A quickly ageing population combined with an increasingly scarce work force lead to an
increase in the ratio of dependence. It is estimated that the working population in
Europe (15-64 years of age) will decrease by 20.8 million people between 2005 and
2030, and the proportion of older dependents will increase from 1 for each 4.2 to 1 for
each 2.41 working individuals between 2000 and 2030.
Figure 1 – Comparison of the percentages of age groups 0-14, 0-24, 65+ e
85+ in the total population, EU-25, USA and Japan, 2000-2050
1 In Japan, where ageing is felt more intensively, the increase will be from 1/3.8 to 1/1.9 working
individuals.
Fonte: Eurostat 2004 Demographic Proj. (Baseline scen.); UN World Population Prospects (2002 Rev. - Medium variant)Fonte: Eurostat 2004 Demographic Proj. (Baseline scen.); UN World Population Prospects (2002 Rev. - Medium variant)
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Figure 2 – Dependent ratio (older population)
total of individuals 65+ years of age / total of individuals 15-64 years of age
Therefore, immigration from countries with strong demographics has intensified and
the presence of high numbers of immigrant workers in the wealthier societies will be a
constant in the next decades.
Such transnational flows, although necessary, will not be enough to keep the active
population at the required levels to assure some economic growth. In some countries
the problem has achieved such levels that the proportion of immigrants in relation to
the native population would lead to an inevitable xenophobic reaction by the latter.2 On
the other hand, the demographic surplus of the countries of origin will tend to decrease
as a consequence of their own economic development and population ageing.
Therefore, it appears inevitable that raising the retirement age, despite unpopular
(mainly amidst older workers), is unavoidable and justified, since "healthy longevity"
has been continuously increasing: the great majority of individuals reaches the current
age of retirement in good health and in conditions to continue working, and that will
remain so for some time.
Very likely with the extension of working years, the transition to retirement will
become more gradual, with a progressive reduction in work time and alternating
periods of remunerated professional activity and periods of inactivity. This
phenomenon appears to already be under way, fuelled by necessity: in the United
States, the unemployment rate in the age group between 65 and 74 was 18.5% in
2003, compared to only 5.6% in the European Union, where there is a higher level of
social protection.
This transition will be followed by change and diversification of the bond between the
organization and the worker. The individual will transition from the status of dependent
worker permanently integrated in the work force core to the status of temporary
2 It is estimated that by 2020 Germany, for example, will have to receive one million immigrants of active
age (not including eventual relatives) each year just to maintain the active population at a constant
level.
MundoOceâniaÁsia
(outros)
JapãoÍndiaChinaÁfricaAmérica
Latina
América
do Norte
Europa
(outros)
CCEU25
Fonte: UN World Population prospects (2002 Rev. - Medium Variant); For EU25 : Eurostat 2004 Demographic Projection
(Baseline scenario); CC= BG, RO, HU, TR
MundoOceâniaÁsia
(outros)
JapãoÍndiaChinaÁfricaAmérica
Latina
América
do Norte
Europa
(outros)
CCEU25
Fonte: UN World Population prospects (2002 Rev. - Medium Variant); For EU25 : Eurostat 2004 Demographic Projection
(Baseline scenario); CC= BG, RO, HU, TR
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worker, boomerang,3 provider of services, semi-independent consultant, worker for
provider organizations and clients, etc. In this environment, it is possible that the more
experienced and qualified workers, with greater leadership ability and less resistance to
risk-taking, will decide (or be encouraged) to focus on their own entrepreneurial
projects, eventually severing any relationship with their former organization.
On a different topic, for the first time, three generations will coexist in the labour force
of most organizations. The relationship among them - the conflict of their respective
values, the division of work, and the hierarchical relationship - will mark profoundly the
life of the organization and alter radically the reality of people management.
d. The technological evolution
The distance communication forms which arose from the swift development of ICT and
the global ubiquity of the internet - from electronic mail to instant messaging, from
video conferencing to broadband services, from research sites to social networks - are
at the base of one of the bigger revolutions in the way organizations operate and
structure themselves.
The ICTs allow organizations to free themselves from physical barriers and gain access
to talent pools which otherwise would be difficult to mobilize, such as specialists based
in different locations and young mothers or older people who prefer to work from
home. Even more important are the opportunities that open up from the overcoming of
mental barriers and which allow organizations to explore human capital located far
beyond the "conventional" work force: "open organizations", "open innovation", "x-
teams", "co-creation", and "crowdsourcing" are some of the buzzwords presently
fashionable and which designate this new capacity to involve clients, suppliers,
stakeholders in general, and even simple sympathizers in the processes of innovation,
development, and production.
The organizations of the future will be more open and diffused structures, made up of
several concentric spheres where "producers" move around connected to the
organization through a variety of associations: full time workers on an exclusivity basis,
temporary workers, retired workers, service providers, workers from subcontracted
organizations and suppliers, consultants, etc. These various types of "producers" may
move around from one sphere to another as their level of involvement intensifies or
decreases and, in the majority of cases, their contributions do not require their
extended physical presence.
Decreasing returns of the "experience curve" typical of traditional organizations are
being replaced by growing profits of the "collaboration curve" associated with open
networks (Hagel and Brown, 2010): instead of leaning towards a limit as "internal"
experience is accumulated, the added value tends to grow each time new members join
the network and contribute their experience and ideas.
Despite the mechanisms of censorship and control that some countries seek to impose,
access to information and content production is increasingly more democratic and is
3 Retired workers are occasionally called by former employers to fill in positions during temporary
absences of qualified workers. Companies like Boeing and Procter & Gamble regularly call engineers and
middle management workers to replace younger colleagues during vacation periods or to participate in
teams on a project basis.
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becoming more widespread. Instead of passively relying on content provided by
specialized collectors (such as television networks, printed or online newspapers...),
the information consumer may use the functionality of networks directly (search
engines, alerts, feeds, tweets, etc.) to select and gather what interests him; even
better, anyone can publish content he/she creates (news, articles, opinions and
commentaries, videos, etc.). Obviously, this huge flow of information varies greatly in
quality, but it is constantly enriched, filtered, and purified by continuous contributors
and critiques.
This use of ”pull" logic, rather than "push" logic, will tend to be applied to all types of
resources as new technologies offer individuals a broader selection. Above all, it will
provide the opportunity to react with flexibility to unanticipated events and to explore
in creative ways the opportunities they create, without being held hostage to plans or
forecasts authored by third parties (Hagel and Brown, 2008).
In the new organizations of the 21st century, value resides in knowledge and the more
knowledge is shared the more value it creates; the "protection" of such knowledge, in
terms of accumulation and secrecy, invariably results in its decline. It is the flow of
knowledge, not its stockpiling, which is found at the origin of the creation of value.4
This new way of thinking represents a total revolution in the culture of many
organizations and the end of the myth that power derives from privileged access to
information. A symptomatic characteristic of successful organizations is the fact that
their hierarchies are relatively poorly informed as they may never entertain the
ambition to control the whole flow of information that comes across the organization.
e. The socio-professional rise of women
In the second half of the 20th century, the entrance of women into the formal labour
market assumed massive dimensions as a result of economic tertiarisation and the
decline of employment in the secondary sector.
In a general way, the increase of female participation in the economy translated into an
improvement of the social and family status of women and is associated with the
acquisition of political and civil rights, improvements in access to education, and an
increase in their qualifications.
Approximately two-thirds of new jobs created around the world in the last decades are
filled by women who, as a result, accumulated growing purchasing power - it is
estimated that they are already responsible for 80% of all purchasing decisions - and
enjoy greater academic success than men.
However, in vast areas of the globe, the participation of women in the economy,
society, and politics in equal footing with men, continues to be an illusion. Even in the
most developed countries women earn less than men, are the most affected by
instability and unemployment, and continue to be conspicuously absent from top
positions in politics and in the economy.
4 The information that must be kept secret - that is, certain critical details about new products under
development - represents a very small fraction of the information which circulates in an organization and
in and out of its borders and does not call into question the general principle of openness mentioned.
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A 2009 study on the composition of top executive organs in 599 companies
representative of the largest publicly traded companies in various countries showed
that in the European Union (UE-27) only 3% of presidents and 11% of administration
council or equivalent organ members are female.
There is a similar situation regarding the exercise of political activities, as shown in
Figure 3: with the exception of Northern European countries, the percentage of women
in national parliaments is around 20% and in the Arab countries that percentage even
falls below 10%.
Figure 3 – Percentage of women in national parliaments around the world
(2010)
Source: Inter-parliamentary Union
The challenges women encounter result primarily from two obstacles. The first is an
objective problem and has to do with family responsibilities and the overload of
domestic chores, which may vary with cultural nuances but is always present to some
extent.
The second challenge lies with myths and preconceived ideas regarding the ability and
motivation of women to carry out top level functions: they are less committed to their
careers, they are not available to travel or work the amount of hours needed, female
temperament does not have the right characteristics, women are not sufficiently
assertive (or, on the contrary, are excessively aggressive), etc.
It is imperative to overcome such obstacles in order to realize the formidable potential
inherent to the full participation of women in the economy and society in equal terms
with men. Women represent one half of the world population and there is not a single
shred of evidence that intelligence, energy and other qualities are unequally distributed
among genders; women benefit from an increasingly better education - in many cases
equal or superior to that of men. Undertaking the role they are entitled to will
strengthen the diversity and plurality of the work force, and will bring change in many
aspects of organization culture, including leadership models, internal and external
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0%
Países Nórdicos
Americas
Europa (OSCE) - com Países Nórdicos
Europa (OSCE) - sem Países Nórdicos
Ásia
África Subsahariana
Pacífico
Países Árabes
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communication, the nature and resilience of the "psychological contract", social
responsibility, and work-life balance.
f. The change in the psychological contract
In the second half of the 20th century, the psychological contract - that is, the beliefs,
perceptions, expectations, and reciprocal informal obligations between the worker and
the organization he/she works for - evolved towards a series of mutual guarantees with
the goal of assuring labour stability and order: in exchange for the promise of
employment security and stability, of equal treatment and social protection, workers
compromised by remaining relatively complacent, by remaining committed and faithful
to the organization, by accepting the separation between professional life and private
life, and by deferring the management of their careers to the employer.
This tacit agreement is currently subject to unbearable tensions and ceased to make
any sense to the generations that recently entered professional life.
The responsibility lies, in first place, with the organizations, whose behaviour in the last
two or three decades5 - lay offs, downsizing, early retirement, reduction in social
protection, 6rising insecurity....- points to a unilateral denunciation of the terms of the
agreement. It is true that many of those measures were inevitable in the framework of
an increasingly competitive global economy and may have contributed to saving many
jobs. Nevertheless, workers see them as a breach of contract without any grounds on
reprehensible behaviour on their part.
On the other hand, in the last sixty or seventy years, the relationship between the "life
expectancy" of technologies, organizations, and careers has suffered a complete
reversal. In the first part of the 20th century, a certain technology (for example,
transport of merchandise by sea) had a window of applicability equal or superior to the
"life expectancy" of the majority of the organizations which used it and those
organizations employed successive generations of workers whose activity changed little
over time. Nowadays, in order to survive, companies created to explore a certain
technology must continuously reconvert to other technologies that replace the original
one. Along the course of a professional life of 40 years (soon to be longer!), workers
must constantly update their skills and, even so, will witness the disappearance of the
companies they worked for or their transformation to the extent that the companies no
longer have a place for them.
All this dynamic of destruction and "Schumpeterian" reconversion, all these constant
mergers and acquisitions, instil in the worker a sense of vulnerability of the
organizations and a suspicion that, even if the organizations were so inclined, they will
not be able to fulfil their promises of employment security and stability long enough.
As discussed further along in the section on emerging values, the increase in the
participation of women signalled the end of the acceptance of the secondary role of
5 Many authors place the genesis of this process in the early eighties, with the wave of liberalization and
deregulation that started in the United States and the United Kingdom by the governments of Reagan
and Thatcher, who had been recently elected.
6 Notice, for instance, the conversion of retirement plans from "standard benefit" to "standard
contribution" which has taken effect a little bit all over in the last two or three years.
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personal and family life, and the pre-eminence of knowledge work replaced loyalty to
the organization in favour of a stronger identity with the professional group.
In turn, the new generation born after 1980 - the Y Generation - which joined active
life in the last decade seems to be guided by values which favour realization in
professional, family, and personal areas over short term financial success, and submits
its loyalty to any organization to high standards of ethics.
All these circumstances lead to the emergence of a new type of psychological contract
where loyalty to the organization is no longer determined by the promise of security
and stability but, instead, guided by expectations of growth, employability, and
professional realization.
g. The erosion of traditional types of authority
In its traditional form, authority is legitimized by status, not necessarily by
competence. This type of authority still prevails today in countless organizations - in
particular in small family organizations ruled by the patriarch and in large organizations
strongly affected by the charisma of the founder - but it is increasingly questioned by
the convergence of multiple developments observed in economy and society.
In knowledge-intensive organizations, the hierarchy is based on proven competence,
since the knowledge worker has extreme difficulty in accepting any source of authority
other than knowledge itself. This hierarchy is also extremely flexible: authority is
transferred to the one, or ones, whose skills and capability offer better conditions for
leadership.
The open structure of these organizations, their geographic dispersion and cultural
diversity, as well as the informal nature of the relationship of many of the participants
in knowledge production - service providers, members of practice communities, and
even clients - makes the projection of authority through traditional means of coercion
and punitive measures extremely difficult. Therefore, collaborative networks tend to be
extremely egalitarian and usually function satisfactorily with a merely functional
division of responsibility and minimal formally assigned coordination.
The younger generation, in turn, places great importance on the ethical dimension of
authority whose legitimacy will depend not only on the characteristics of the person it is
assigned to, - skills, relational ability, etc. - but mainly on the good will of his/her
intentions. This requirement has been intensifying, naturally, in the sequence of the
revelation of successive scandals, frauds, and other less dignifying episodes which,
along the last decade, have destroyed the reputation of formerly highly regarded
leaders.
All these processes have been fuelled by the increasing ubiquity of the Anglo-Saxon
management model which encourages a more open and informal type of relationship
between management and other employees. This model, however, derives from a
cultural standard of equality and regard for individual responsibility and has met with
implementation challenges in more "collectivist" cultures where there is greater
"distance from power" (Hofstede, 1991).
In summary, there is a growing rejection toward externally imposed authority in favour
of authority accepted in function of the leader's characteristics and intentions: his/her
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capacity to guarantee access to the information and resources required for the success
of a common mission, his/her charisma, ethic standing and acceptability of his/her
objectives.
h. The emerging values
The concern with ethics is not limited to the fundamentals of authority. In recent times
there has been a growing support of themes such as corporate social responsibility
(CSR), the importance of personal realization in work, and work-life balance. Beyond a
certain opportunistic advantage, it seems there is a genuine concern with such issues.
The claim for greater balance between professional demands and family life results, to
a large extent, from the increase in female participation in the work force. It is based
on the quest for greater balance between the roles of men and women, both in the
work place and in the family, and on the improvement in the quality of family life.
On the other hand, those values correspond closely to the ideas of the "Y Generation".
The attitudes of this generation (see e.g. Pew Research Centre, 2007) reveal a
somewhat paradoxical reality. On the one hand it is a rather narcissistic generation,
raised in a strongly paternalistic and protective environment that made it believe it is
truly special. Since it grew up during the boom years of the 1980s and 1990s, it
benefited from far better consumer standards and education than their parents'
generation did. It is also contemporary with the advent of competition based on the
quality of service and the affirmation of client rights. It is used to demanding and has
an acute brand sensibility - to the extent of excelling in personal branding.
On the other hand, many of these young adults witnessed their parents losing their
jobs amidst the turbulence of the restructurings that took place in those decades.
Furthermore, their entrance into active life coincided with the successive crises that
shook up the early times of the 21st century and with the uncertainties related to the
advent of a new world order marked by the symbolism of the September 11 attacks.
Mainly in Europe, weak economic growth and unemployment are making difficult their
access to sufficiently gratifying work and is delaying their moving out of their parents'
homes.
The combination of these events lead them to rethink their life priorities and to place
free time for personal life, the intrinsic nature of work, personal satisfaction, and
professional growth at the top of their list. They desire to become part of organizations
whose values are aligned with their own personal values and believe those
organizations must be socially minded.
In the realm of politics and traditions - for instance, regarding issues like
homosexuality, non-conventional families, immigration and intercultural relations - they
exhibit a more cosmopolitan and tolerant attitude than any previous generation.
At work they are impatient and posses a high degree of self confidence, are strongly
inclined towards innovation and technologies, and enjoy team work and interaction
through informal networks. They display intense reluctance towards activities whose
added value they cannot unveil. They do not understand or accept restrictions in access
to information and contacts outside the organization.
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It is this generation, with these values, who will coexist in the work force with not just
one, but two, preceding generations - the so called "X Generation" and the "Baby
Boomers" - whose values and priorities often differ substantially from their own.
Figure 2 – Relative priorities of the 3 generations
Relative Priority placed on work
or family Baby-boomers X Generation Y Generation
Work
22%
13%
13%
Both
37%
35%
37%
Family
41%
52%
50%
Source: Generation and Gender in the Workplace, 2002
The future of people management
The complexity and intensity of the present factors portrays the scale of
transformations that people management must undergo to respond effectively to the
new reality.
i. Managing scarcity
In the knowledge-intensive organizations which dominate the global economy, talent is
the scarcest of all resources.
This scarcity has two origins: the ever quicker erosion of knowledge generated by the
constant advancements of science and technology, and the retraction of the work force
resulting from population decline and ageing. Each of these two causes calls for specific
responses.
The constant erosion of the knowledge base requires the generalization of life-long
learning. Professional development must not be seen as a scarce resource and, much to
the contrary, needs to be vastly offered. However, the methods, formats, and
distribution channels will be radically different from those that currently exist. The high
risk of content becoming outdated will discourage long and broad-range professional
development programs designed as heavy ex-ante investments with the goal of
producing relatively long-term results. Such programs will be replaced by shorter
modules of more assiduous undertaking, whose contents will be more likely to produce
acceptable results while they remain up-to-date.
The fragmentation and modularization of content will also facilitate the personalization
of learning and allow an almost unlimited variety of combinations able to meet the
specific needs of each person to be trained. Professional development opportunities will
also be omnipresent in the global network, in several formats and in accordance with
different modalities: conventional text, hypertext, e-learning, animations, videos,
podcasts, accomplishment programmes, online interaction with trainers, etc.
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The modularization and ubiquity of contents will enable learning to become organized in
a pull rationale where individuals locate, select, and combine resources that match their
needs at each moment. It will allow leaning to abandon the push rationale where
specialized information collectors decide what contents are needed for a whole group of
individuals, as the result of centralized forecasts and ever more fallible and obsolete
"average needs", as a consequence of growing uncertainty and diversity.
The central concerns of professional development will shift from centralized planning to
the availability of access to content and to tools of self-diagnosis and needs-
assessment by individuals. Content production will be increasingly more externalized
and will enlist an ever larger contribution by the users themselves acting as training
"prosumers".7 Above all, successful organizations must be true "learning organizations",
capable of generating, mobilizing, and diffusing knowledge in all their activities.
Measures to combat scarcity in the work force - immigration, extending working life -,
as well as some of their possible consequences in the life of organizations and
management of human capital, were previously identified in the section about global
ageing.
Delaying the age of retirement brings up another very sensitive question - the issue of
remuneration on the final stretch of one's career. Specifically, the rule that it increases
(at least in unitary value) until the end of professional life will have to be re-examined.
It is not that older workers are less productive; on the contrary, today we know that
the decline of certain cognitive functions with age is compensated by experience.
However, the combination between greater availability in this age group and the
competition between this age group and the younger generation, generally better
prepared, will inevitably apply some pressure on the compensation of the former. This
tendency clashes with the current offer of financial incentives to postpone retirement.
j. Managing plurality
The organizations of the future will operate in an environment of extraordinary
plurality.
Here, the term is used to denote a broader and richer concept than that of simple
"diversity". This plurality is displayed in several contexts and dimensions. It is possible
to discuss:
- The plurality of the work force, characterized by multiple diversity dimensions:
cultural diversity generated by global physical influxes (immigration, expatriation,
travel) and by the remote interaction of workers from countries with different
cultures; generational diversity caused by the new coexistence of three
generations; the more balanced participation of men and women in all aspects of
organizations; and finally, beyond work force in the conventional meaning, the
diversity of input and involvement of a group of stakeholders who add their
contribution to that of workers'.
7 This ability of the consumers to produce knowledge, as well as the involvement of clients in the internal
processes of organizations represents the fulfillment of the "prosumer" (simultaneously producer and
consumer) prophecy proposed by Toffler (1980).
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- A functional plurality, present in the diversification and increasing individualisation
of workers' activities.
- A structural and geographic plurality, as a consequence of internationalization,
specialization, or even externalization of certain operations and of the idiosyncrasies
of business units that enter and exit the periphery of organizations at the mercy of
successive mergers, acquisitions, and break-ups; and also the possibility of
knowledge workers being able to carry out their functions effectively, independently
of their physical location.
- And even a chronological plurality, detectable in the coexistence of parts of an
organization which are in different phases of their journey toward new paradigms.
This plurality represents a formidable source of wealth, and the organizations that can
better capitalize on it will be the winners.
The development of intercultural intelligence will, thus, become a priority in people
management. It is imperative that workers know not only how to value difference, but
also how to manage the tools which are necessary to deal with and benefit from it:
foreign languages, interpersonal communication, communication platforms and
applications, knowledge of the characteristics of different cultures, and many others.
Despite constant praise for the value of intercultural sensibility and its development,
there is still a long way to go: how many collaborators of western organizations (or
even how many executives) with business in Islamic nations are aware that the
weekend in those countries falls on Friday and Saturday? And how many are able to
recite the five fundamental principles of Islam?
It is also necessary to transit from the prevailing antagonistic attitude toward an
attitude of quest for reciprocal benefit: in open organizations, the creation of value
depends heavily on trust on the different types of "producers" who exchange
knowledge across their borders - the clients who participate in innovation, professionals
in the same area who contribute technical solutions, and even competitors who
collaborate in the definition of norms and standards that benefit all in the logic of
"coopetition" coined by Toffler (1980).
In short, we may say that, in face of the challenges and the opportunities of plurality,
the role of people management must not lie so much in the search for the necessary
balance to assure cohesion but, rather, in the creation of controlled imbalance
susceptible to foster and draw value from differences while making sure that it does not
go so far as to undermine cohesion.
k. Managing motivation and merit
In open and pluralistic organizations, the motivation factors certainly differ greatly
among the diverse groups that make them up. The identification and the understanding
of such motivation factors is essential in order to properly orchestrate the total
potential present in this "extended work force". To manage people means to provide to
all of them these essential keys to understand and collaborate with one another. In the
organizations of the future, managing motivation cannot be a task reserved to the
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leader. The open and lateral nature of collaborative work requires that most workers be
able to understand what motivates all those people with whom they work with.
It is common-place to defend merit as a structural principle of power relationships and
authority within organizations. The problem lies with defining "merit". With some irony,
we might say that "merit" resides in the behaviours and attitudes prized by the
managing elite and which derive directly from objective contribution to the creation of
value and "dedication to the company" (to be read as "number of work hours"), loyalty
to certain circles, and unquestionable obedience to their superiors. However, this is not
true, as the fundamentals of merit are one of the most powerful factors of
attractiveness of an organization: where merit lies in affinity with the elite, you will only
find their friends; and where there is unquestionable obedience, only the "yes men" will
be attracted to and retained.
The organization of the future will be more demanding regarding the fundamentals of
merit. In first place is, obviously, the creation of value. However, right along with it,
are the behaviours and attitudes required by its operation: tolerance and valuing
differences, communication capacity in any context, autonomy and initiative, quest for
mutual benefit, curiosity and continuing learning, ethics, etc. Without these, value
cannot be created. (And for many, it is not worth creating.)
l. Aging the flow of talent, rather than stocks
The conventional model of talent management follows the principle of accumulation.
Once acquired, talent must be preserved and retained at all costs - including several
somewhat displayed forms of enticement and blackmail - and the loss to the outside is
perceived as a contentious separation between the organization and the worker. Under
these circumstances, it is legitimate to keep the worker out of sight to avoid interest by
outside parties: participation in meetings, conferences and like events, such as
participation in professional associations and social networks, constitutes grounds for
disapproval. Even professional development training is usually held within the
organization to minimize the risk of contact with outside elements.
Obviously, this model does not support the needs of the knowledge economy.
Nowadays, it is not possible to conceive talent development in a closed environment.
For reasons mentioned above, enhancing and keeping the skills of the knowledge
worker updated requires his remaining in constant contact with a network that extends
far beyond the frontiers of his organization.
On the other hand, the new terms of the psychological contract - which, by the way,
derive partly from a reaction against the paternalistic view - take away all meaning
from the strategies of talent accumulation and preservation.
The new models of people management must, therefore, start to incorporate talent
management beyond the frontiers of the organization - a radical change of mentality,
since the contentious separation must be replaced by a friendly departure and, in
certain cases, even recommended by the organization. In the organization of the
future, the existence of available, beneficent, and recognized talent for the organization
is an active asset of great value and easily superior to that of its eventual retention.
The preservation of a good relationship between the parties allows the worker to
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participate in the organization's networks, to be a partner in the sharing of knowledge,
the source of opportunities for business and innovative ideas, and to contribute with
technical solutions within his/her specialty.
Therefore, to manage the flow of talent means the following, in this order:
1. To understand the times, rhythm, and career motivations of each knowledge worker
and to detect the moment when a transition makes sense to him/her.8
2. If necessary, take the initiative to recommend that transition: a well-founded and
coherent recommendation, adjusted to the worker's projects, will reinforce the
worker's gratitude and future good will, even if it does not materialize; besides, it
allows more effective control of a direct loss in favour of competitors, which may
rise obstacles for future cooperation;
3. Maintain and foster the relationship beyond the frontiers of the organization.
m. A new leadership
Just like now, leaders of 21st century organizations will be responsible for motivating
and fostering the growth of knowledge workers, for directing their collaboration, and
guiding their careers - but they must do it in a totally different way.
Knowledge workers have an essentially egalitarian vision of themselves. They believe
the value of contributions is based on their objective quality, not on the status of the
people who make them. The nature of their work is more autonomous and demands
more initiative on their part. Supervisors cannot be aware of all the information that
comes across the workers and, much less, to control and filter that information as a
way to exercise power. Thus, these workers expect their supervisors to provide
guidance, incentive, and the means required to get the job done, rather than exercise a
heavily prescriptive intervention or tight control over their activity.
So, the influence of leaders must be based on their proved ability to act in accordance
with those expectations. It will be closer to the auctoritas of the Romans - the authority
of savants, who convince through the pertinence and fairness of their arguments based
on the credibility of their testimony - than to the potestas, the right of elected
magistrates to exercise coercion and apply punishment.
Leadership based on auctoritas will play a fundamental role in the relationship among
generations. The extension of working life, the gradual transition to retirement, and the
migration of older workers to consulting and support functions, will result in an
objective loss of the power they previously exercised. Older supervisors will gradually
be replaced in their supervising duties by younger ones, but as they continue to work
for the organization, the latter will, eventually, be supervised in the exercise of duties
previously carried out by the former. It is doubtful that this older workers will accept
any authority from the younger group based on coercion and punitive measures. The
younger group will have to earn and deserve that authority based on proven merit -
and this merit, in the sense defined above, is synonymous of competence and results,
but also of loyalty, humility, and strict ethics.
8 This capacity is already reasonably understood by organizations that practice systematic internal
rotation. The difference lies in the possibility of the "rotation" being external.
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There is only one way to learn this form of management: by learning to be managed.
Certainly, one can start by learning from the example set by good leaders, but one
must also learn from everything that should not be done, from behaviours which rather
than encouraging the worker's alliance cause him to be rebellious and defiant:
arrogance, disloyalty with the people they manage, selfishness, inability to say "no" to
their superiors, unethical behaviour - in summary, poor character. This "followership"
training will provide candidates to future leadership positions with a very rich
perspective of the human and ethical demands of leadership.
In short, this demand translates into respect for people, in general, and for each person
individually; into respect for their values and interests, whether they are community
service, protection of the environment, or simply enjoying more time with the family.
However, in order to respect, it is necessary to know, and knowing requires opening
up, associating with others, and recognizing the individuality and particularities of
others. The disperse and plural nature of 21st century organizations makes that
discovery very difficult: how will we know someone we only meet through email or
phone conversation, someone who lives and works thousands of kilometres away, who
speaks a different language, and whose culture is so different from ours?
This is certainly one of the great challenges of people management in the upcoming
decades: to help workers, despite all obstacles and difficulties, be recognized as flesh
and blood human beings, with their ambitions and frustrations, their convictions and
distresses, their happiness and sadness, their past and their future - not as mere
abstract representations based on data, whose true essence no amount of information,
however exhaustive, may capture
The situation in Portugal
In general, in its essence, the issue of people management in Portugal does not differ
much from the scenario presented here.
It is an economy with a strong tertiary component, with a service component that grew
from 33% to 61% of the working population between 1974 and 2009 - a number that is
characteristic of post-industrial economies. Portugal is, at the same time, a small open
economy exposed to the tides of globalization and integrated in an area of free
circulation of goods, people, and capital with participation of several multinationals.
Its population has one of the highest ageing rates, but data indicate that this rate is
compatible with those of other Southern European countries; its fertility rate is below
the average in the European Union.
Despite having received a considerable number of immigrants, it continues to be a
source of emigration of workers with low qualifications for more developed economies
and, in past years, "brain drain" has increased as a consequence of the difficulty for
highly-qualified young people to find work that meets their expectations.
In the area of ICT, Portugal shows indicators compatible with those of many other
developed nations (availability of internet and broadband services, participation in
social networks...).
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Portugal has one of the highest levels of female participation in the economy, one of
the lowest gender salary differences in the European Union (9.2%), and a high
percentage of female college graduates (64%). However, the access of women to
economy and politics compares poorly to that of their male counterparts.
A history of economic instability, a tradition of dependence on power, a low level of
individualism, and an extremely high index of resistance to risk-taking (Hofstede,
1991) lead to a situation where the stability of working for others is strongly valued in
detriment of initiative and entrepreneurship, a fact further reinforced by the rigidity of
labour laws.
Authority is marked by a great distance from power (Hofstede, 1991). It is based on
the social acceptance of status inequality, on norms of reverence used, and on the
existence of a much closed leading elite as the result of a small environment combined
with relationships forged through participation in political and academic circles.
Generally speaking, the new values of organizations experience implementation
difficulties. The concern with work-life balance is limited by the need to provide
sufficient income for the family, a factor that keeps men and women away from home
for long hours, made longer by commuting in large urban centres. The difficulty of
young people in finding employment keeps them living with their parents for a rather
long period, rendering that concept void of any sense. CSR appears not to generate
great enthusiasm and is viewed with some scepticism, even in its environmental aspect
(as can be attested by the relatively low degree of recycling); the level of voluntary
work is low, despite sporadic efforts to join causes perceived as noble (like, for
example, food bank campaigns or, in March of 2010, the "Clean-up Portugal"
campaign).
In face of this scenario, it is not to be expected that people management tendencies in
Portugal will differ all that much from what we enunciated in the previous chapter.
There are, however, a few aspects that deserve special reference.
Regarding the management of plurality, Portuguese society appears to be rather open
to accepting and benefiting from great exposure to diversity. Without much discomfort,
it took in hundreds of thousands of immigrants in the past twenty years, despite
noticeable discrimination against certain groups (poor Africans, gypsies) - and even this
discrimination seems to disappear at the level of personal relations. However, we must
not spare efforts toward a true intercultural education of the new generations through
the learning of languages, opportunities for exchange, travel, periods of work and study
abroad, participation in international social networks, etc.
Some of the cultural characteristics of Portuguese society - particularly the low index of
individualism and the tradition of dependency (whether on the family, employer, or the
government), blaming the occurrence of situations on external cause, strong resistance
to risk-taking, envy, and the great distance from power - will certainly present great
challenges to the implementation of some of the recommendations made.
The low degree of individualism and the resistance to risk-taking will tend to discourage
professional mobility and to preserve the psychological contract in its paternalist
version.
In addition, the development of a more open attitude regarding talent flow will clash
head-on with the prevalence of the collective over the individual, with the tendency to
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avoid uncertainty and ambiguity, and with the feeling of envy toward those who
managed to achieve a better position in life. For these reasons, it will require a much
greater effort. The same is true for the proactive search of mutual benefits.
The same way that resistance to risk-taking and urge for dependency will discourage
older workers to start new enterprises in the last stretch of their careers, distance from
power and status appreciation may pose obstacles to the coexistence and collaboration
of different generations.
The advent of leadership based on auctoritas will experience difficulty overcoming the
barrier of distance from power.
All these challenges are made more difficult by the nature of the Portuguese
entrepreneurial fabric, where 95% of companies have less than 10 employees and, in
their great majority, are based on family structure. Simply put, these micro-
organizations do not have the size or resources necessary to carry out the measures
mentioned in the previous chapter, even if many of them already operate in the sphere
of a knowledge economy. The only exception might be with regard to leadership, as the
small size facilitates a closer relationship between workers and their employer;
however, the employers' lack of preparation (the majority only have the equivalent of a
junior high education), their lack of sensibility to the meaning of leadership, and the
typically paternalistic attitude of collectivist cultures pose great obstacles.
Nevertheless, the situation is far from being desperate. The challenges are only of
quantitative nature and may be overcome with the right effort and investment. Several
of the largest organizations currently present in Portugal, national companies or foreign
multinationals, already adopted many of the standards and practices identified in this
article.
In Portugal, good management of people in a knowledge economy is possible.
Bibliographical references
____ (2005). Uma nova solidariedade entre gerações face às mutações demográficas
(Livro verde). Bruxelas: Comissão das Comunidades Europeias. Available in http://eur-
lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2005:0094:FIN:PT:PDF
____ (2006). Ageing and Employment Policies: Live Longer, Work Longer. Paris: OECD.
____ (2007). How Young People View Their Lives, Futures and Politics: a Portrait of
«Generation Next». Washington, DC: Pew Research Center
____ (2010). “Not So Willkommen: Germany Falls Behind in Competition for Foreign
Experts”. In Spiegel Online, 11 August. Available in
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,711046,00.html
____ (2010). Homens e Mulheres em Portugal, 2010. Lisboa: INE
____ (2010). Women in National Parliaments (Situation as of June 2010). Inter-
parliamentary Union. [consulted on July 2010). Available in http://www.ipu.org/wmn-
e/arc/world300610.htm
Almeida, S.J. (2010). “Igualdade entre mulheres e homens está longe: diferença
salarial subiu para 9,2 por Cento”. In Público, April 4.
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João Paulo Feijoo
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Barreto, A. (2002). Mu 1dança social em Portugal, 1960/2000, WP 6-02. Lisboa:
Universidade de Lisboa - Instituto de Ciências Sociais. Available in
http://www.ics.ul.pt/publicacoes/workingpapers/wp2002/WP6-2002.pdf
Drucker, P.F. (2001). “The new workforce: knowledge workers are the new capitalists.”
In The Economist, November.
Drucker, P.F. (2001). “The next society”. In The Economist, November 1.
Drucker, P.F. (2001). “The way ahead”. In The Economist, November 1.
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Evans, P, Pucik, V., e Barsoux, J-L. (2002). The Global Challenge - Frameworks for
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Harvard Business Review Blogs. Available in http://blogs.hbr.org/bigshift/2010/08/six-
fundamental-shifts-in-the.html
Hofstede, G. (1991). Cultures and Organizations, Software of the Mind – Intercultural
Cooperation and its Importance for Survival. New York, NY: McGrawHill.
Lesthaeghe, R. (2010). The Unfolding Story of the Second Demographic Transition.
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Toffler, A. (1980). A Terceira Vaga. Lisboa: Livros do Brasil.
OBSERVARE
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Notes and Reflections
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, HISTORY AND STRATEGY:
CONFLICT AS EXPLANATORY DYNAMICS
Luís Alves de Fraga
Ph.D. in History from Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa (UAL).
Holder of Master Degree in Strategy from ISCSP-UTL. Holder of Licenciatura (Hons)
Degree in Political and Social Sciences from ISCSP-UTL. Portuguese Air Force Colonel
(Retired). Lecturer in the Department of International Relations at Universidade
Autónoma de Lisboa (UAL)
Understanding relationships between states has always been essential for the exercise
of their foreign policy. Knowing how to better defend their own interests to avoid
exposing vulnerabilities to the greed and desire of others has been decisive, over time,
for those in charge of negotiations to successfully conclude them with the least possible
damage. The decision was itself surrounded by caution, after the decision maker had
taken counsel from his most prudent and informed advisers. These were experienced
and skilful men, in terms of the knowledge they possessed and in the way they
manoeuvred the web of intrigue surrounding the business in question or the interest at
stake. Experience and skills were acquired from practice or from the study of history.
The latter stimulated plots, invoked reasons, and predicted consequences. In short,
either due to experience or in-depth study, negotiating was an art that required finding
out about other people’s intentions and concealing own interests. It has always been so
and will remain so.
However, the twentieth century brought us something new: the study of international
relations gained scientific status and entered the universities. Consequently, attempts
were made to find in it explanatory systems for the motives and behaviours of the
actors involved in the international arena.
In an attempt to advance an academic explanation of what is meant by international
relations, Jacques Huntzinger stated that they "[...] are concerned with the scientific
study of international life”1. However, due to the extreme complexity of the latter, he
adds that “international relations is the science of internationalized social facts”2.
This last statement allows us to include other entities, rather than just states, as
important players in international life, as the former can limit the action and
1 Huntzinger, Jacques (1991) Introduction to International Relations, (Portuguese translation by Carlos
Aboim de Brito), Lisbon: PE – Edições: 9.
2 Ibid, op. cit. 11.
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movements of the latter. This is because the poles of international relations’ dynamics
expand beyond the traditionally closed scope of foreign ministries, and act in fields that
are quite different from merely diplomatic ones. In this light, and especially since the
second half of the twentieth century, the international centres of decision and power
have multiplied.
This increase has also led to an obvious expansion of the potential for conflict in
international relations. Therefore, to be able to meet Huntzinger’s first proposition
(scientific study of international life), and as a result of the increase in the number of
internationally relevant players, we need to be more scientifically rigorous, because the
decision-making centres are dispersed and interests are more intertwined, the same
applying to potential conflict situations. I believe it is important to consider that the
international relationship – as in all relationships, can include both cooperation and
latent or openly acknowledged conflict.
Further to this, I would stress that conflict is the primary framework in which
international relations take place. This is because relationships disguises interest, and
interest, by opposing the other party, generates the potential conflict that the sides
involved will try to avoid in order to agree on a cooperation plan. Consequently, we can
conclude that the main goal of the scientific study of international relations is,
ultimately, to understand and explain the power relations which are dynamically and
dialectically established between international players.
Marcel Merle draws our attention to the way historians and political scientists look at
international relations, and he leaves us this clear message: “[...] the role [of
historians] is to restore the past and not to explain the present. Political science is [...]
more ambitious about its goals and more limited as to its means, since it proposes to
accurately report the things of the past and the present alike, despite lacking the
distance and the documentary sources which historians benefit from”3. In other words,
according to this international relations theorist, there is a barrier between past and
present which is not usually overcome by historians, leading to compartmentalized
fields of analysis and knowledge.
However, Merle touches on a fundamental point, which is the difficulty encountered by
political scientists in accessing sources. This difficulty increases as international life
becomes more complex, due to the existence of numerous decision-making clusters
scattered over several decision-making centres. Thus, it is easier to write history than
do carry out scientific studies on international relations, because, in the case of the
former, one has advanced knowledge of the players and results, i.e., and knows - or is
able to know through a dynamic and interactive study of the historical actors - the web
of conflict and cooperation that took place at a certain time and provoked a known
reaction.
This ability allows us to conclude that historical knowledge is more reliable - because it
is based on the dissection of an inert and far gone corpus – than the scientific
knowledge of international relations, since the latter results from a current analysis,
and lacks the guaranteed genuine sources which come from all the decision-making
centres.
3 Merle, Marcel (1981). The Sociology of International Relations, (Brazilian translation by Ivone Jean),
Brasília: Editora Universidade de Brasília: 40.
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Of course, while carrying out their work, historians will always ask themselves: do we
have all the information that determined an event? Has time or man taken away the
information that would have given us a different understanding of the past? That is the
question that historians can only overcome by advancing possible hypotheses
supported by the documentation available to them. It must be pointed out that this
uncertainty has its methodological parallel in the problem international relations
researchers have to face, for they need to work with hypotheses too, as they do not
have access to all sources and decision-making centres. As a result of the multiplication
of decision-making centres in the international arena, these hypotheses will be more
fallible and less consistent than those used by historians. There is a fluidity in
international relations that does not exist in history. For this reason, looking at history
and international relations as scientific ways of understanding and explaining the past
and the present, we realize that the former is an excellent aid to the latter, because the
present is somehow anchored on the understandings or misunderstanding of the past.
Facts taking place currently will hardly be detached from a set of former events. Thus,
if scientific work in international relations is to be perfectly understood, this requires us
to take into account the work of historians. However, the latter cannot merely give an
account of the facts; they must go further in justifying and explaining the event.
As we have seen, the social relationship, whether it is limited to a small group or
global in nature - thus entering the field of international relations - is, due to the
interests at stake, always prone to becoming confrontational. Therefore, to understand
the relationship is to understand the dialectics that dictated it, and this fact limits, at
any given point, the stages that can lead to cooperation or to rupture of peaceful
relations.
The scientific work of historians and political scientists who focus on international
relations should be underpinned by a science that has moved recently from the realm
of military academies to universities as it became much better understood, the same
applying to its use: strategy. General Beaufre, one of the many authors considered to
be a classic, proposed the following concept while trying to escape the strict definition
of military strategy and confine it to the political level: "[...] the art of the dialectic of
wills that employ force to resolve their conflict”4. As easily perceived from the above
definition, understanding the strategy is understanding the conflict first, and, secondly,
the dialectic of wills. This is because, for the purpose of our goal, we put aside the use
of force, since it may eventually follow paths other than military or physical, as conflict
can present itself in distinct forms5. Accordingly, I believe I am in a position to propose
a more general and more comprehensive definition: strategy is the art of the dialectics
of confronting wills to resolve the conflict that opposes them6. Therefore, studying
strategy means studying the dialectics of conflicting wills7.
4 Beaufre, General (1980). Introduction to Strategy, (Castilian translation by Cármen Martin de la Escalera
and Luis Garcia Árias), Madrid: Ediciones Ejercito: 49.
5 It must be stressed that nowadays, the most common form of conflict is of an economic nature. On this,
General Gil Fiévet wrote a remarkable comparative study titled From Military Strategy to Business
Strategy, published in Portugal in 1993 by Editorial Inquérito and translated by Isabel St. Aubyn.
6 In the past, I have advanced the following definition: strategy is the science that studies the distinct
aspects of human social conflicts and the ways to solve or limit them (A Estratégia, a História e as
Relações Internacionais. Revista Militar. No. 7/8 (July /August 1992): 495. The fact that strategy is,
above all, a science that aims to solve conflicts, is underlined here..
7 Although I have no doubts about this approach, I believe it should be complemented by the statement
made by Ana Paula Garcês and Guilherme d’Oliveira Martins (Os grandes Mestres da Estratégia: Estudos
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To complete our discussion about the importance of the articulation between history
and strategy in the scientific study of international relations, we just need to realize
that the convergence point of all analysis - historical, strategic and political - must be
conflict, bearing in mind that, until it becomes clear, it goes from the state of
cooperation - where it is absent – to that of war - where it gets all the characteristics
that define it as being fundamentally dialectical. By taking conflict or pre-conflict as an
element of analysis, and resorting to it in their study of the dialectics that are intrinsic
to it, both historians and political scientists will be able to explain the dynamics of past
and present.
This idea has already been put forward in my master's thesis in Strategy8, and, in a
more abridged version, in the research conducted for my PhD thesis9. In both works,
my attention focused on the various internal and external conflict scenarios in order to
understand and explain how Portugal’s national interest, in its internal and external
aspects, has benefited or been harmed.
This required an investigation of all kinds of conflict affecting the Portuguese society
between 1914 and 1918 to explain internal and external political behaviours.
References
Beaufre, General (1980). An Introduction to Strategy, (Castilian translation by Cármen
Martin de la Escalera and Luis Garcia Árias), Madrid: Ediciones Ejercito.
Fiévet, Gil (1993). From Military Strategy to Business Strategy, (Portuguese translation
by Isabel St. Aubyn), Mem Martins: Editorial Inquérito.
Fraga, Luís Alves de (1992). A Estratégia, a História e as Relações Internacionais.
Revista Militar. No. 7/8 (July/August): 475-496.
Fraga, Luís Alves de (2001). O Fim da Ambiguidade: A Estratégia Nacional Portuguesa
de 1914-1918, Lisbon: Universitária Editora.
Fraga, Luís Alves de (2010). Do Intervencionismo ao Sidonismo. Os Dois Segmentos da
Política de Guerra: 1916-1918, Coimbra: Imprensa da Universidade de Coimbra.
Sobre o Poder da Guerra e da Paz): «An intelligence game for some, or a pragmatic exercise for others,
an ongoing trial on right-wrong or a system of makeshifts, […]. What is undeniable is that the person to
codify the laws of war, Sun Wu, […], emphasized that excellence in war is to win conflicts without
needing to resort to strength » (p. 22). I stress the importance of this idea advanced by this Chinese
general who lived in the 5th century BC because it sums up my own thoughts.
8 Fraga, Luís Alves de (2001). O Fim da Ambiguidade: A Estratégia Nacional Portuguesa de 1914-1918,
Lisboa: Universitária Editora. The title of the thesis submitted in 1990 to Instituto Superior de Ciências
Sociais e Política da Universidade Técnica de Lisboa (Higher Institute for Social Sciences and Politics of
the Technical University of Lisbon) was Portugal e a Primeira Grande Guerra: Os objectivos Políticos e
Estratégia Nacional: 1914-1916 (Portugal and World War I: Political Objectives and National Strategy)
and is kept at Biblioteca Nacional (National Library) in Lisbon. This is a pioneering study carried out in
Portugal and abroad that examined existing conflicts and demonstrated that Portugal’s involvement in
World War I resulted from internal and external reasons determining the convenience for active military
action as part of the worldwide conflict.
9 Ibid (2010). Do Intervencionismo ao Sidonismo. Os Dois Segmentos da Política de Guerra: 1916-1918
(From Interventionism to Sidonism. The Two Segments of War Policy), Coimbra: Imprensa da
Universidade de Coimbra (University of Coimbra Press). It is a two-fold study. One aspect described the
military effort in participating in the Great War; the other addressed the scenarios of the internal and
external conflicts that contributed to the reduced importance of the political and military involvement of
Portugal in World War 1.
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Luís Alves de Fraga
118
Garcês, Ana Paula; Martins, Guilherme d’Oliveira, edit. (2009). Os grandes Mestres da
Estratégia: Estudos Sobre o Poder da Guerra e da Paz, Coimbra: Almedina.
Huntzinger, Jacques (1991). Introduction to International Relations (Portuguese
translation by Carlos Aboim de Brito), Lisbon: PE – Edições.
Merle, Marcel (1981). Sociology of International Relations, (Brazilian translation by
Ivone Jean), Brasília: Editora Universidade de Brasília.
How to cite this Note
Fraga, Luís Alves de (2010) "International Relations, History and Strategy:
Conflict as explanatory dynamics". Notes and Reflections, JANUS.NET e-journal of
International Relations, Vol. 2, N.º 1, Spring 2011. Consulted [online] on date of last
visit, observare.ual.pt/janus.net/en_vol2_n1_not1.
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Vol. 2, N.º 1 (Spring 2011), pp. 119-126
Notes and Reflections
THE PORTUGUESE CRISIS, INTERNATIONAL RESCUE
AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
Manuel Farto
Associate Professor in the School of Economics and Management Studies (ISEG), Technical
University of Lisbon (UTL). He holds a Degree in Economics from ISEG, UTL, and a Ph.D. in
Economics from UTL, per equivalence awarded to the Ph.D. in Histoire de la Pensée
Économique obtained at the University of Paris X-Nanterre. He is a Visiting Professor at
the University of Orléans (France) and at the Federal University of Paraíba (Brazil), and
Deputy Director of the magazine JANUS (UAL / Público). He has held several public positions,
including that of Chief of Staff of the Minister of Public Works, Transport and Communications,
Deputy Director-General of Higher Education and Academic Affairs, and Vice Chairman of the Board
of ISEG. He participated in several national and international conferences and published
several articles in magazines and books. His main research interests are Macroeconomics,
International Economics, History of Economic Thought, and Economic Policy.
Henrique Morais
Holder of a BA Hons in Economics from the School of Economics and Management Studies (ISEG),
and of a Master in International Economics (ISEG). Lecturer at Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
(management courses and International Relations) and at the University of Algarve (MBA in
Corporate Finance). Advisor to the Bank of Portugal, Department of Reserves and Markets.
He is currently required by the CP, EPE to perform functions as Member of the Board of
Directors of CP Carga, SA. Contributor to magazines and yearly publications in the area
of economics, namely Janus - Yearbook of Foreign Relations (UAL / Público).
The model on which economic growth was based in recent decades is depleted, and this
depletion can be observed in the stagnation of economic growth over the last decade,
the worsening of the imbalances, and in particular by increasing difficulties in securing
the financing of the economy and of the state in acceptable conditions.
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The Portuguese crisis, international rescue and economic growth
Manuel Farto and Henrique Morais
120
One must not think that the situation will be easier for Portugal due to the fact we
entered a club of rich countries. In fact, we believe that a less restrictive economic
policy, especially monetary policy, on the part of European entities could facilitate and
alleviate the transition of the Portuguese economy to a new model. However, we must
not have illusions about the limits of solidarity this club we are part of is prepared to
concede.
The crisis we are currently experiencing, which emerged at the convergence of an
international crisis with national foundations, is particularly complex due to the
restrictions imposed on the Portuguese economy. The need for consistent and profound
changes, if implemented with common sense and dialogue, has now become extremely
urgent.
1. Portuguese economy and current restrictions
Monetary policy does not depend on us and may not be the most favourable. Further,
given the weight and influence of Germany, any acceleration of the German economy,
which is anything but unlikely, can lead to changes in monetary policy in a manner
contrary to our interests. If this possible lack of synchronization is joined by some anti-
inflationary orthodoxy, which is particularly disadvantageous in the current context, we
have reasonable grounds to fear the effects of the euro zone monetary policy on our
economy, namely due to the continuation of a strong common currency. Even the
financing of our economy, hitherto heavily dependent on the goodwill of the European
Central Bank, is likely to be faced with additional difficulties soon.
The state budget policy is and will remain limited by the Stability and Growth Pact,
which in future will be even more rigid as a result of the sovereign debt crisis in several
European Union countries and the set of constraints, obligations and penalties it will
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Luxembourg
Cyprus
Portugal
Spain
Finland
France
Italy
Netherlands
Ireland
Belgium
Germany
Austria
Greece
Malta
Slovenia
Slovakia
World
Euro Zone
European Union
1986
-
1989
1990
-
1999
2000-2010
3º
15th, only Italy features
worse..
6º
Chart
1
-
Gross Domestic Product
-
Annual growth
rate
%
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bring. The restrictions and resulting consequences will be even greater for the
Portuguese economy.
The lower growth trend of our major partners, notably Spain, is also another factor
hindering the growth of our exports and the improvement of some of the imbalances.
The European Union’s external context is also very difficult for an economy such as
Portugal’s, which is uncompetitive and has a weak export tradition. The development of
globalization and the growing importance of emerging countries have increased
competition on our economy in areas and products where we have some relevance.
Competition from new EU Member States and emerging economies (trade, attracting
foreign direct investment, shared EU aid and business delocalization) is a tremendous
challenge for the competitiveness of our economy and a further difficulty to our
recovery in sustainable conditions.
On the other hand, labour costs rose and, due to globalization, there are many other
alternatives that affect very negatively the attractiveness of the country with regard to
international and even national investment. Moreover, as a result of European
agreements and the difficulties which now Europe is facing, funds will certainly be
reduced soon.
In this context, our peripheral geography, as mentioned above, stands out even more
strongly, hampering the location of new businesses and forcing new relocation
processes. We also believe that the actual systems to support economic activity will
move further away from European standards, thus further hindering incentives to
invest and produce, which will lead to a tendency for balances to adjust at lower levels
in terms of products, wealth and quality of life and welfare. And lest we forget, in this
respect, that, in terms of per capita income, our economy continues to compare poorly
with the rest of Europe.
20
70
120
170
220
270
Luxemb
o
urg
Netherlands
Austria
Ir
e
la
nd
Belgium
Germany
France
Finland
Spain
Greece
Italy
Cyprus
Slovenia
Malta
Portugal
Slovakia
Chart
2
-
GDP
per capita
in
purchasing power
parities
-
2009
.
Euro zone = 100
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The social crisis that tends to deepen, with a whole procession of misery and suffering,
the weakness of the government in the current policy framework and the lack of
tradition of peaceful and fruitful social dialogue, will greatly hamper the possibility of a
social pact, which is of great importance under current conditions, undermine social
cohesion, and lead many Portuguese to resume the uncertain paths of emigration.
2. Future prospects or the labours of Hercules
In addition to this crisis of productivity and competitiveness, expressed in the trend for
widening imbalances, the international crisis has brought about a lack of demand that
has destroyed a significant part of the productive apparatus, as attested by the
numerous company bankruptcies and massive increase in unemployment.
Unfortunately, this was coupled with a sovereign debt crisis that forces pro-cyclical
policies that will continue to destroy productive capacity and generate unemployment.
As a result, recession and stagnation seem to have found ripe conditions to settle in,
leading the Portuguese to general impoverishment.
In such a situation, it is urgent to undertake a programme of structural adjustment and
growth that dramatically reduces more immediate imbalances and pursues a policy that
enables overcoming major obstacles and build a model of sustainable growth to ensure
an annual growth rate of the economy above 2.5%. If we do not fulfil this goal, it will
be very difficult to accommodate the consequences of past imbalances and restore the
fundamental balance in a framework of social cohesion.
Thus, the direction we point to and believe reflects a broad consensus among
economists can only be one of product growth, productivity and competitiveness, which
will confer Portuguese economy a new feature: to become an international producer.
To this effect, the first fundamental guideline is to reorient supply towards tradable
goods, particularly for export to new countries and regions of higher potential growth.
The stimulus to export goods and services becomes a permanent orientation axis using
all tools capable of delivering results in this area, ranging from developing an export
credit and credit insurance policy to the allocation of tax benefits and implementation of
an aggressive economic diplomacy.
This approach requires the development of more sophisticated strategies and business
operations, involving a marked improvement of the country's capacity for innovation
and productivity. This implies increased qualifications and skills on the part of
entrepreneurs and workers and the implementation of active and selective .public
policies.
To solve a problem one must first identify it. And in the case of resources, we should
understand that the weaknesses of businessmen and of Portuguese workers are rooted
not only in organizational issues but also in its intrinsic quality, which can be improved
with more and better training.
Improving the business environment, particularly through the timely operation of the
judiciary system, and the removal of bottlenecks on infrastructure, such as the new
airport or the rail and road links from our ports to the Spanish hinterland, should be
included in the group of correct priorities to be delineated.
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It makes sense to support some specific sectors, particularly where there is some
consensus on the matter, mainly when dealing with sectors still far from maturity and
consolidation, such as renewable energies or the electric car, or that may be associated
with more specific resources, as the sea or the Mediterranean diet, where comparative
and/or competitive advantages may already exist or be created. In this sense,
competitive re-industrialization and the further development of agro-industrial activities
emerge as guidelines to be implemented.
To be competitive and of high quality, supply needs our economy to be better equipped
to attract national and international investment. Better and more investment will
increase economic activity, output, employment, and income. However, one must not
forget that an investment policy is both a policy for growth and for employment, which
has perhaps the most sustained and real effect. Without the creation of job
opportunities, improved qualifications and training alone may not achieve the desired
objectives. Such measures require selective policies aimed not only at national
investment but also at attracting international investment.
Given that public investment is severely limited, in the present context it should be
very selective and focused on overcoming the structural bottlenecks that streamline
existing private investment. Public investment in innovation and technology,
modernization and development, should be strengthened in future as a means to
induce a sustained growth of private investment in this area and more generally in the
economy.
From our point of view, rather than create more favourable expectations of future
cheaper redundancies for companies, action is needed on the factors that can influence
direct investment in Portugal, particularly in terms of costs and taxes.
The restructuring of the tax system may be an indispensable tool to encourage
investment. In a country without its own currency and monetary policy and with
budgetary limits on a lavish management of finances due to existing restrictions
(imposed by excessive debt), tax policy is a key instrument for the management of
resources. Thus, the fact that the country already holds a high tax burden should not
lead us to fiscal drag by simply defending its maintenance.
This means a policy that significantly reduces the costs of doing business and positively
discriminates, in terms of taxation, the businesses and workers who contribute to the
consolidation of our external accounts. This shock could incorporate a change in the
financing system of Social Security, through a significant reduction in company
contributions offset by tax increases or fees in the area of consumption and in sectors
which hitherto have been protected.
At present, the development strategy still requires, from the supply side, wage costs
control, although, of course, with employees having a share in eventual productivity
improvements. A more flexible labour legislation with regard to management of
working time may also contribute to improving business efficiency. However, it should
be noted that wages and employment law have not been major obstacles to economic
growth in Portugal, and their worsening to the detriment of workers will not be a
condition for future development.
It must be stressed that, with regard to earnings, the average growth in nominal wages
in the public sector was 3.4% between 2000 and 2009, whereas the average inflation
in this period was 2.6%. This exposes the weakness of the argument that suggests that
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budget imbalances are responsible for the increase in wages. Furthermore, the average
reduction in public sector wages by 5% in 2011 means that, between 2000 and 2011,
the increase in real wages was 1.9%, i.e. less than 0.2% per year! This cannot be
compared with the 6.6% real growth (annual average) in the 1990s, or 6.8% in the
1980s.
At this point, it should be noted that the development of the traded goods sector that is
necessary to achieve the appropriate level of economic growth, to which we referred
above, may be insufficient if we only insist on the exporting part. Indeed, the urgency
and depth of the adjustment of supply that is required by the current magnitude of the
imbalances, requires a broad process of increasing domestic production to replace
products currently imported. The fact that there are many difficulties in its
implementation and that it is "outmoded" should not hamper the changes in behaviour
and attitudes that will enable it!
With regard to demand, it is therefore necessary to change attitudes and behaviours in
order to reduce imports and stimulate increases in consumption especially aimed for
domestic production. Some import substitution can be made operational immediately,
and this only requires the will to do so. Most developed countries have induced informal
protectionist attitudes and behaviours, as operative and effective as traditional
prescriptions, which are obviously incompatible with the open economies of today.
To this effect, some taxes may have to be increased, penalizing consumption, so that
others can come down significantly to allow companies to reduce costs and leverage
investment. Moreover, it should be pointed out that private consumption has grown
over the past decade well above the GDP, with a strong focus on import.
Chart
3
-
Private Consumption
4,4
2,6
3,6
1,6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
10
12
14
1961
1967
1973
1979
1985
1991
1997
2003
2009
Decade Average (%)
Private Consumption (tca)
%
8
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In the area of institutional reform, it is indisputable that some progress has been made
among which we would highlight two examples: the reduction of bureaucracy, with
several noteworthy measures, and social security reform, removing it from a clearly
unsustainable path. However, in many other areas, reform attempts were unsuccessful,
as in public administration, or produced totally opposite results, as is the case of
justice.
In the short term, it is essential to reduce the size and cost of the state, increasing its
efficiency. Examples of measures that need to be implemented include controlling
public spending and eliminating unnecessary costs. This can be achieved by reducing
the number of institutes and keeping only those of a technical or regulatory nature, and
reducing the number of employees. Streamlining the autonomous public sector,
particularly by promoting the physical and financial control of State-Private
Partnerships (PPPs) in order to reduce the enormous damage they cause to the
country, is certainly a national requirement. To pursue a policy of zero-based budgeting
could also be a disciplinary tool of public spending.
Justice is also a key sector to enable us to pursue a strategy of sustainable
development. In the past, the main defect of justice was its slowness and inefficiency,
particularly in key areas for economic development. At present, one senses and
speculates about more serious anomalies, such as the politicization of justice, which
questions the third pillar of the Rule of Law and discredits the country. Without the
introduction of a clear institutional break in this sector that can be perceived externally,
the attractiveness of the Portuguese economy will hardly be noticed.
Education and training at various levels continue to limit the development of the
country, despite the significant progress made and the much expenditure spent in this
area. In any case, the improvement of their quality and raising the quality of our
human resources should remain as an essential guideline. Simple measures, such as
increasing the number of taught hours per week in subjects like mathematics,
Portuguese and sciences, can significantly alter current results.
3. The need and limits of external assistance
We are not unaware of the high social cost of many such measures, which therefore
tend to be permanently postponed. But we believe that its postponement will have
serious consequences for the country. The risk that our current operating model will
collapse, with the consequent need for more restrictive measures as far as the standard
of living of the population is concerned, is growing each day.
In this regard, when preparing a text for JANUS 2011 in October 2010, we wrote: "It is
for this reason that we stress the urgency, and also on behalf of such urgency, for
external help to address this situation. We believe that such a programme will not run
in an environment of total dependence of the so-called markets, i.e., in permanent
harassment by international speculators pushing up the price of money in usurious
fashion. "
Also in this framework we wrote then: "For all this, resorting to the International
Monetary Fund should be considered without prejudice and in a cost / benefit approach
whose result we regard as positive. This is because it would create a stable framework
for economic policy in, say, three years, as it would increase the credibility of policies
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nationally and internationally, reducing the cost of difficult measures that need to be
implemented, and also because the financial effort would be less costly than continuing
to resort to financial markets. By doing this we would be acknowledging the errors of
our former economic policy, but this fact is not lost on anyone."
The time wasted turned a request for assistance into an international bailout.
Nevertheless, the negotiations currently underway with the "international troika" do not
fundamentally change the direction we have been proposing, quite the opposite. It is
necessary to take into account that the policies proposed by those international bodies
cannot fail to be guided by an orientation of "cosmopolitan”1 " nature that is limited and
insufficient to meet the dual ambition of the national "Political Economy": the
adjustment of national accounts (public and external) and the resumption of sustained
growth in economic activity.
The implementation of such a programme requires a great deal of agreement on the
part of social partners, breaking with tradition and finding new ways of consensus.
However, in its absence and independently of the external support that we have to
request at this stage, it is essential that employers, workers and government officials
understand the basic truth that there is no royal road to sustained economic growth
and improved well-being of the Portuguese, and that they must unite around a
coherent, clear-sighted and pragmatic social agreement. Only then, and if this is done
urgently, we will avoid the dark path that is outlined on the horizon right now.
How to cite this Note
Farto, Manuel; Morais, Henrique (2011). "The Portuguese crisis, international rescue
and economic growth". Notes and Reflections, JANUS.NET e-journal of International
Relations, Vol. 2, No. 1, Spring 2011. Consulted [online] on date of last visit,
observare.ual.pt/janus.net/en_vol2_n1_not2.
1 List, Friedrich (2006). Sistema Nacional de Economia Política. Lisbon: Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
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Notes and Reflections
PORTUGAL 2010: THE RETURN OF THE COUNTRY OF EMIGRATION?1
Jorge Malheiros
Associate professor at the Institute of Geography and Regional Planning, University of Lisbon.
Researcher at the Centre for Geographical Studies.
He works in the field of international migration with emphasis
on issues of management of flows, the social and economic integration of migrants,
segregation issues, and the relationship of transnational immigrant communities.
For about 15 years between the beginning of the 1990s and the end of the first decade
of the twenty first century, Portuguese emigration acquired a status of near-invisibility
in addressing migration issues associated with Portugal, both on the part of politicians
and academics. Immigration, for many synonymous with developed country, in a
context of modernization and economic growth, not only ensured employment for all
indigenous people but also needed to fill various sectoral deficits (from the "classics"
like those found in construction, public works or in domestic service to the "new ", such
as agriculture, some segments of the industry and, increasingly, retail), took almost all
the space reserved to the phenomenon of international migration in the political,
academic and social agendas.
There is ample empirical evidence of this process. A governmental entity was set up in
1995 to address the issues associated with the integration of immigrants - the High
Commission for Integration and Ethnic Minorities (ACIME) – which, in 2001, was
converted into the current ACIDI, with corresponding upgrading of responsibilities,
funds and resources, and, subsequently turned into the High Commission for
Immigration and Intercultural Dialogue (currently called ACIDI, IP). This entity set up
two National Centres to address the needs of this community, which were further
complemented with the establishment of a network of 87 Local Centres. In addition, the
Portuguese consular network was "optimized" and proximity to the various emigration
nuclei was reduced, which demonstrates that the importance of emigration was, to
some extent, played down. This is further corroborated by the gradual disappearance of
mechanisms for collecting and disseminating regular information on Portuguese
migration flows and stocks (data from the Survey on Outgoing Migratory Movements -
IMMS – were no longer made available by the INE from 2003 onwards, and emigration
1 In memoriam of Maria Ioannis Baganha, a remarkable researcher in the area of migrations, and above all
for having been a true friend.
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Jorge Malheiros
128
estimates in the context of Demographic Statistics were published only a few months
ago; the censuses almost exclude emigration), only countered with the creation of the
Emigration Observatory in 2008.
Although some politicians may have recently drawn attention to the supposedly normal
fact that Portugal has a "dual nature as a country of origin and as a country of
destination of migratory flows”2 (Vitorino, 2007:20), this happens only when
information on the number of exits, even if incomplete and with gaps, points to an
increase and diversification of migration. Indeed, in the 1990s and in the first half of
the 2010s, when IMMS data estimates reported exits of about 27-28.000 people on a
yearly basis (as in 1995-1999, 2002 and 2003) and emigrant remittances outweighed
the volume of EU funds and still accounted for 3% of the GDP (nowadays they account
for about 1.5%), the political agenda’s myopia with regard to emigration flows was
significant, as it only paid tentative attention to the consolidated, old and numerous
"diaspora" (worth between 2.3 and 5 million, depending on whether Portuguese
nationals, or of Portuguese origin, were counted)3, as evidenced by the reappearance of
the Portuguese Communities Council (1996)4 and the enactment of legislation in 1997
that extended, albeit with some restrictions, the right to vote in presidential elections to
Portuguese living abroad.
However, and as mentioned earlier, throughout this period the views of Portuguese
academics also reflected this process of relative lack of visibility of Portuguese
emigration. While the number of publications on research on immigration has increased
almost exponentially in the last 15 years, studies on migration abated. For example, it
is significant that the literature on Portuguese emigration kept at the Emigration
Observatory points to the publication of only 17 books on this subject in Portugal, while
just at the Immigration Observatory, about 40 works on immigration to Portugal were
published in just half of that period (this does not include dozens of works published by
research centres and publishers ...)5.
This imbalance in the treatment of the two phenomena could also be found in the
national media, which multiplied news about immigration and ethnic minorities between
the mid-1990s and the second half of this 2010s6. As evidenced by Ferin Cunha and
Santos (2006, 2008) in their studies on the presence of this phenomenon in the press
and on television, between 2003 and 2005 the number of news increased, which
justifies the assertion that these issues "definitely became a theme in television news
"(Ferin Cunha and Santos, 2008: 100). As for Portuguese emigration, despite
continuing to be in the national news during this period, it tended to be mentioned in a
2 Vitorino, A. (2007). “Introdução aos relatórios dos workshops realizados no âmbito do Fórum Gulbenkian
de Imigração” in Vitorino, A. (coord.), Imigração: Oportunidade ou Ameaça? – Recomendações do Fórum
Gulbenkian Imigração. Estoril: Princípia: 19.
3 Pires, R. P. (coord.) (2010). Portugal: Atlas das Migrações Internacionais. Lisbon: Tinta da China: 92.
4 The first Portuguese Communities Council (CCP) was created in 1980 and carried out its activities as an
advisory body of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs between 1981 and 1987, being deactivated in the
following year. The current council was created in 1996 by Law No. 48/96 of 4 September. On this
subject, see Aguilar, M. M. (2009) “O Conselho das Comunidades Portuguesas e a representação dos
emigrantes”, in Padilla, B.and Xavier, M. (org.), Migrações, No. 5, Lisbon: ACIDI, pp. 257-262.
5 Historical publications exclusively about migration movements before the middle of the 20th century
were not included in any of the reference information sources.
6 Ferin Cunha, I. and Santos, C.A (2004). Media, Imigração e Minorias Étnicas: Televisão e Imprensa
2003. Lisbon: ACIME and Ferin Cunha, I. and Santos, C.A, (coords.) (2006). Media, Imigração e Minorias
Étnicas II. Lisbon: ACIME.
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Jorge Malheiros
129
more sporadic way, with a traditional increase in the summer months when the
emigrants returned to Portugal to spend the summer period.
Naturally, one may ask if the enhanced visibility of immigration in the political and
public agendas in that period was fully justified by both the significant growth and
diversification of incoming flows (in regional terms, in the forms of professional
integration..), particularly during the transition years from one century to the next,
and by the need to provide an effective social response to the phenomenon, ensuring,
simultaneously, equal rights, control of possible national xenophobia and fair
integration conditions. Although we believe that was the case, this does not justify the
erasure of emigration as a social and political phenomenon that has continued to take
place in Portuguese society in the 1990s and the first decade of the present century.
Indeed, what seems to have taken place, in addition to the normal turn towards
immigration provoked by the latter’s sudden and significant growth, was a social
construction of a certain social invisibility of the emigration phenomenon in Portugal,
particularly with regard to its scope and numbers. This took place as part of a process
widely encouraged by the political power, which was joined by academics, the media
and other powers - which portrayed emigration as part of a past that should be
forgotten, because it allegedly meant lack of development, poor employment
opportunities, and backwardness. However, and as we shall see next, Portuguese
emigration always continued, and the social networks that support it were activated
with greater intensity from the middle of this decade, when the economic model
adopted for the country's growth in recent years began to show clear signs of
exhaustion.
The recent evolution of Portuguese emigration – intensity, destinations
and profiles
While Portuguese emigration remained active in the 1990s, it was in the last decade
that the various sources we have accessed begin to show signs of an increase in the
number of exits, as part of a process that combined the search for new destinations
(i.e. the United Kingdom and Spain, increasing between the late 1990s and 2007;
Angola, in the last three years) with the revival of pre-existing emigration networks,
such as Luxembourg and Switzerland.
In concrete terms, although there is no accurate data on current flows of Portuguese
emigration, the figures point to a volume not far from 70,000 annual exits in the
second half of the present decade. This figure, which is high and up by 30% between
the first and the second half of first decade of the twenty first century (Table 1), must
be interpreted in the light of two factors that differentiate it from the situation that
occurred in the 1960s and early 1970s: on the one hand, the mobility framework has
changed significantly, and a substantial part of this emigration has taken place in an
area of free movement of workers within the EU; on the other hand, some of this
mobility is temporary and of a non-permanent nature , something which has also been
made possible thanks to the free movement. The relevance of the temporary nature of
migration is supported not only by IMMS data released by the INE covering the period
up to until 2002 and 2003, which showed a percentage of this type of flows
corresponding to about ¾ of the total, but also by the fact that Portugal is one of 6
countries in the European Economic Area with the highest volume of placements
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130
abroad7 in 2007 (Fig.1). This demonstrates that the Portuguese still use the European
area as major emigration destination, and, above all, as an area for professional
mobility, a process that has increased over the last years.
Table 1 - Portuguese inflows at main destinations (averages 2005/06 and
2008/2009)
Average
(05-06)
Average
(08-09)
Rate of
change
05/06-08/09
Germany 3395
4341
27,9
Spain 16993
13298
-21,7
Netherlands 1021
1993
95,3
Luxembourg 3779
4531
19,9
United Kingdom 10705
12605
17,7
Andorra 2438
722
-70,4
Switzerland 12290
15629
27,2
Angola 156
12631
7996,5
USA 1267
859
-32,2
Brazil 536
694
29,4
TOTAL 52577
67302
28,0
Notes: Netherlands and Luxembourg (2005/2006 and 2008); Angola (2006 and 2008/2009). There is no
information for France.
Source: Observatório da emigração (compilation of data based on various sources)
However, the analysis of the main countries of destination, with the exception of
France, for which it was not possible to obtain information on annual flows, shows that
Europe is not the only relevant target of Portuguese emigration, and that even within
Europe some changes have taken place. Indeed, the emergence of Angola as a growing
destination of Portuguese emigration after 2005/2006 (Table 1), is the best example of
the present process of reorganization of the international mobility destinations of the
Portuguese, who can take advantage of emerging countries with high economic growth
rates, especially those that have Portuguese, Spanish or English as their official
languages and have shortages of workforce with intermediate or higher qualifications in
sectors such as construction, public works and tourism
7 The placements abroad regulated by the European Union refer to “workers who, for a limited period of
time, carry out their professional activity in a country other than the one where they normally work in”.
It leaves out people who are self-employed, and those who are in search of a job outside their own
country. It therefore refers to professional workers employers deliberately relocate to other countries on
a temporary basis to carry out their jobs. On this, see
Directive 96/71/EC of the European Council and Eurofound (2010), Posted Workers in the European
Union. Dublin, European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions.
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Figure 1 - Placements abroad in 2007 - countries of the European Economic
Area with 5000 placements and over
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
France
Poland
Germany
Czech Rep.
The Netherlands
Portugal
Belgium
Luxembourg
United Kingdom
Spain
Hungary
Slovakia
Denmark
Slovenia
Austria
Switzerland
Estonia
Romania
Finland
Sweden
Bulgaria
Lithuania
x 1000
Nonetheless, this restructuring of the destinations for Portuguese emigration has also
taken place in Europe itself, with Spain (the main destination of Portuguese emigration)
and the United Kingdom emerging as highly attractive areas between the beginning of
this decade and the 2008 crisis. However, in these cases, the qualifications of
Portuguese emigrants are even more asymmetric, since the relatively high proportion
of the workforce in highly qualified professions (almost 20% in the UK and around 11%
in Spain) is counterbalanced by an even higher number of those who carry out
unskilled activities (23.5% and 26%, respectively - Table 2).
Table 2 - Comparative elements of the stocks of Portuguese immigrants in
France, Luxembourg, Spain and United Kingdom, 2000 (some basic
features)
France
Luxembourg Spain
United
Kingdom
Senior managers from the public and private
sectors and leaders 3,4
2,6
7,1
12,1
Intellectual and scientific professions 2,0
1,4
3,6
7,4
Services workers and vendors 2,9
8,8
17,3
26,7
Labourers and related 51,4
34,1
23,8
5,7
Unskilled workers 8,4
32,9
23,5
25,9
Percentagem de pop. Com ensino superior 4,1
2,9
7,5
19,3
Percentage of women 48,7
47,2
51,7
50,8
Percentage of population aged 15
-
24 in the over
15s 3,8
14,3
11,1
17,4
Source: OECD - DIOP - Database on Immigrants in OECD countries
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With regard to the more traditional European destinations, Switzerland, which is the
2nd largest recipient of Portuguese emigrants, assumes prominence, alongside
Luxembourg (and, to a lesser extent, Andorra) which, due to their demographic size,
must be seen as relevant destinations for current Portuguese emigration. As for France,
despite the shortage of information, and Germany, which, during the most intense
period of the public reconstruction works in the States of the former GDR, became one
of the most important two or three top destinations for the Portuguese, they have lost
the standing they once enjoyed.
In short, current Portuguese emigration numbers are still significant and continue to
make an important contribution to Portugal’s GDP, despite the slight decrease noted
after 2007 and which has to be attributed to the economic crisis in many major places
of destination (2288.5 Euros in 2007; 2281.9 in 2009, which corresponded to about
1.4% of GDP). Despite continuing to use existing social networks in many countries
(Switzerland, Luxembourg, Andorra ...), Portuguese emigration has undergone a
reconstruction process that simultaneously takes advantage of geographic and
historical-cultural proximity (Spain, Angola) and regional economic dynamics within a
globalization and facilitation of worldwide mobility framework.
Figure 2 – Age structure of Portuguese flows (02/03 and 08/09)
In addition, the profiles of Portuguese emigrants seem to be undergoing changes.
Structural changes in the educational levels of nationals, associated with rise in
unemployment among young people, many of whom well-qualified, are contributing to
the slight drop in age (Fig.2) and to the diversification of the types of "Portuguese
emigrant". Although men still prevail over women, the number of women is increasing,
exceeding 40% according to the data published by INE in 2008 (Figs. 3a and 3b).
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2002/2003
2008
> 44
years
30-
44 years
15-
29 years
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Figures 3a and 3b – Gender composition of Portuguese emigration 2002/03
and 2008
Source: INE, Estatísticas Demográficas 2003, 2004 e 2010
As for professional integration, besides the differences and opportunities associated
with the characteristics of labour markets at the various destinations, there is an
important vulnerable group of emigrants with low education levels who take on
unskilled jobs available in the market, and those with low-middle and intermediate
qualifications who, in more recent countries of destination (Spain and especially the
UK) are far more established in the services’ sector than in the former countries of
Portuguese emigration flow by gender, 2002-2003
Women
Men
Portuguese emigration flow by gender,
2008
Women
Men
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emigration (France and Luxembourg), where construction works and, to a lesser
extent, the transformation industry are dominant. In addition, there is a growing
presence of qualified emigrants in the new destinations (Table 2), which attests the
existence of a new face of Portuguese emigration. While it is simplistic to speak of
"brain drain", already back in 2000 Portugal was the 3rd EU country with the highest
rate of graduate emigrants (13%)8, and the number of highly qualified young people
who go abroad to carry out a postgraduate course, an internship or look for their first
job and do not return to the country is increasingly significant. Moreover, the
prolonged economic stagnation with a systematic increase in unemployment, coupled
with high levels of precarious work and the slow conversion of a production model that
is traditionally labour-intensive and cheap, may further increase the number of exits
and particularly hamper the eventual "go out-and-come-back " of skilled workers.
Current profile of Portuguese emigrants: from the cardboard suitcase
to the leather suitcase, alongside executive folders and sports bags
The contemporary Portuguese emigrant tends to be part of temporary flows rather than
definitive ones. He/she is primarily young (over 55% are under 30 years of age) and
predominantly male, although women now represent over 40% of the movement.
Individuals with low or middle-low education levels are still significant in number, a fact
that makes them join low-skilled sectors in the industry or civil construction business.
However, an increasing number of young people with middle and higher education
qualifications are emigrating, which is reflected in their greater presence in the trade
and services sectors, and also in the most skilled professions (compare, in Table 2, the
percentage of executives and scientific professionals in the older countries of
emigration - France and Luxembourg - where they do not exceed 6%, with the
percentage of the same professional groups in Spain - about 11% - and in the UK -
almost 20%).
This diversification in profiles, which are younger, include a higher number of women,
and are more qualified, has been accompanied by changes in major destinations. Since
the 1990s, the UK has become the preferred destination in the EU, while Spain has
emerged as the principal receiver in the present decade (receiving an annual average
of almost 18 000 Portuguese emigrants between 2005 and 2009). As for major the
traditional emigration countries, Switzerland remains a key destination (the annual
average received in the aforesaid period is slightly above 14 000 persons), whereas the
flows directed to Germany, Luxembourg, Andorra, Belgium, and Holland are still
significant, although much less than in the case of Switzerland.
Outside Europe, the economic growth and modernization of Angola has attracted high
numbers of Portuguese emigrants, especially after 2007, when the economic crisis took
the edge off exits to destinations such as Spain.
8 Pires, R. P. (coord.) (2010). Portugal: Atlas das Migrações Internacionais. Lisbon: Tinta da China: 94.
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135
How about the future? From emigration as a dramatic event to
emigration as an asset…
Given the scenarios of the Portuguese economy set for the next few years, Portuguese
emigration will not tend towards a reduction, and will probably increase in the short
term, particularly in the context of free movement in Europe, and especially if some of
the states where Portuguese emigration networks are more consolidated recover
quicker from the crisis than Portugal, and also if other countries with which there are
intense socio-cultural links maintain or accelerate their pace of economic growth and
modernization, as in the case of Angola and Brazil. In addition, other emerging
countries are likely to become targets of skilled and technical emigration, like China,
particularly if some encouraging factors are brought together (increased investment,
promotion of Mandarin learning, use of Macao as a gateway). Finally, traditional
destinations far less affected by the crisis (i.e. Canada) can also be reactivated, in
addition to the fact that migratory movements (such as temporary work at various
destinations) by many Portuguese professionals are not just expected to be maintained
but to increase.
In terms of flows, predictions point to relatively high annual numbers in absolute terms
(between 75 000 and 100 000), corresponding to about 1.3-1.8% of Portuguese
workers, of whom an increasing number will have intermediate and higher education
qualifications (although they may not be the actual majority), which means they will
alternate between staying in Portugal or work abroad during the year. In short, it
appears there is a dual diversification trend - i) one in terms of emigration destinations,
mitigated by the fact that the Portuguese social networks act as drivers of movements
heading to traditional destinations, ii) the profiles of emigrants, attenuated by the
relatively low qualifications amongst older people9.
While these figures may, at first glance, be seen as almost dramatic, in economic (in
terms of workforce) and demographic terms, as happened in the 1960s and in the early
1970s, such an interpretation should be subject to closer examination. Indeed,
globalization and the European integration contexts currently delineate a situation that
is completely different from the one that prevailed forty or fifty years ago. This means
that open and peripheral small-scale economies, such as the Portuguese one, are
inevitably forced to become both receivers and senders of workforce, in the framework
of reinforced economic interdependence and international mobility of labour force,
particularly in the free movement area, but not limited to it.
Given the inevitability of emigration, at last in the short and medium term, the
challenge is how it should be incorporated into national policies. If the option is to
"disguise" the outflows (given that emigration means backwardness and attests the
reality of unemployment, etc.), relegating them to the periphery of the political agenda
and not creating the necessary conditions for a movement quality (recognition of the
added value brought about by financial remittances, in addition to added value
associated with the experience and skills of the qualifications of young emigrants;
enforcement of agreements between Portuguese and foreign companies and research
centres that have emigrants as a connection point; maintenance of consular services to
ensure a good service to the communities; enforcement of agreements with the
9 According to INE, in 2008 people over 44 years of age accounted for about 16% of the flow (Fig.2).
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Confederation of Portuguese Speaking Countries - CPLP with regard to migration ...),
then the loss can be significant.
If, however, emigration occupies a visible place on the political agenda - which also
means conferring it respect and public social recognition, - and if Portugal recognizes
the existence of a major "mobile nation" that may contribute to the development of the
country, then emigrants can become an asset that will assist Portugal in the difficult
process of national economic and self-esteem recovery.
How to cite this Note
Malheiros, Jorge (2011). "Portugal 2010: The Return of the country of emigration?".
Notes and Reflections, JANUS.NET e-journal of International Relations, Vol. 2, N.º 1,
Spring 2011. Consulted [online] on date of last visit,
observare.ual.pt/janus.net/en_vol2_n1_not3.
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Notes and Reflections
BOLÍVAR, 200 YEARS LATER
Nancy Elena Ferreira Gomes
PhD student in International Relations at Universidade Nova de Lisboa
and scholar of the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation.
Lecturer at Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa.
“Bolívar 200 anos depois” (Bolivar, 200 years later) is the title of a conference
held at Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa - Autonomous University of Lisbon (UAL), on
11 October 2010. This event, organized by UAL and the Instituto para a Promoção e
Desenvolvimento da América Latina - Institute for the Promotion and Development of
Latin America (IPDAL), was supported by the Embassies of Panama and Colombia in
Portugal.
The main ideas of Simon Bolívar1 on political, economic and social issues were the
subject of debate and reflection, particularly those that have an international dimension
and were enshrined as principles of International Law: Security and Collective Defence,
Respect for the Territorial Integrity of States and the Peaceful Settlement of Disputes.
More than a mere idea, the ideal of unity, which had been one of the greatest
ambitions of the “Liberator of America”2, also deserved special attention. Indeed,
throughout the work of Bolivar, the Liberator cites the word "America" as an expression
of this ideal countless times. In most cases, Bolivar focuses on the idea of a
Confederation of Hispanic-American Nations.
"More than anyone, I want to see in America the forming of the
greatest nation in the world, not for its size and wealth, but for
its freedom and glory”3."
1 Venezuelan military and politician, Simon Bolivar was born in Caracas in 1783. After the failure of his
federal project following the disintegration of Gran Colombia, Bolivar died in Colombia in 1830.
2 The territories (former colonies of Spain) liberated by Simon Bolivar correspond to the current states of
Venezuela, Colombia, Panama, Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia.
3 Letter from Jamaica (Reply from a Southern American to a gentleman from this island. Kingston, 6
September 1815). Letter by Simon Bolivar addressed to Henry Cullen.
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On 7 December 1824, Bolívar sent an invitation from Lima to Colombia, Mexico,
Argentina, Chile, and Guatemala to attend a Congress to be held in Panama.
"It seems that if the world had to choose its capital, the
Isthmus of Panama would be chosen for that privileged
purpose, positioned as it is in the centre of the globe, looking at
Asia on one side and at Africa and Europe on the other ... The
Isthmus is equal distance from those ends and for this reason it
could be the provisional location of the first Assembly of
Confederate States…”4.
At the Amphictyonic Congress of Panama5 in 1826, Simón Bolívar proposed the signing
of an offensive and defensive Alliance Treaty, a border demarcation that took into
account the utis possidetis of 18106, and the use of conciliation and mediation in
conflict resolution. Federico Richa Humbert, the Ambassador of Panama in Portugal7,
drew attention to the importance of this event, stressing that it was the first
Conference of States that met in that part of the world, and which sought to solve
common problems through international cooperation. However, the modest political will
on the part of many of the governments involved, the lack of interest shown by the
United States of America (USA)8, and especially the development of nationalisms,
condemned this initiative to failure.
"Even the press has fuelled this lack of control, by bringing
about the idea of isolation in each individual, because by
preaching that scandal will befall on everyone, it has destroyed
the confidence of all ... Each province keeps for itself the
authority and power, each one believes it should be the centre
of the nation. We shall not speak of the Democrats or the
fanatics, or talk of colours, because if we enter the bottomless
pit of these issues, the genius of reason would be buried … “9.
After Panama, there were several unsuccessful attempts that insisted on the Bolivarian
dream, such as in Lima (Conferences of 1847 and 1865), and Montevideo (1888
Conference). Instead of a confederation of American Nations – based on equality
4 Lima Circular Letter, 7 December 1824. In Obras Completas de Bolívar, Vol. II. Caracas: Ministério de
Educação Nacional, s.d. p. 52.
5 The Amphictyonic Leagues in Ancient Greece consisted of individuals from various city-states who came
together to worship a particular deity, with the aim of ensuring mutual defence and cooperation. This
type of association – with a sacred nature - is considered to be the precursor of the current idea of
Federation.
6 The border demarcation of the new American States should respect at the outset, that is, temporarily
and before a new treaty, the boundaries that existed prior to independence.
7 He was invited to participate as a speaker at the Conference "Bolivar 200 years later," organized by UAL
and IPDAL and held on 11 October 2010.
8 Among the causes of US lack of interest we can highlight Bolivar’s insistence on two matters, the
independence of Cuba and Puerto Rico, and the abolition of the slave trade in Hispanic America.
9 Letter by Simon Bolivar addressed to General José António Páez, 8 August 1826.
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between all states – from 188910 (with the holding of the first Pan American
Conference, organised by Washington) the "Inter-American system" was set up.
This was clearly a hierarchical system that adopted the Inter-American Treaty of
Reciprocal Assistance (Rio Pact, 1947) and the Organization of American States (OAS,
1948) as its main legal instruments. Thus, the Bolivarianism ideal yielded against
Monroism realism11 .
The project to create an Ibero-American Community of Nations was another issue
discussed at the Conference "Bolivar 200 years later”. Fernando Garcia Casas12
reminded us that, in 1970, Spain proposed the creation of an Ibero-American
Community (CoIBA) with the clear political objective of promoting democracy in the
region. Indeed, the end of dictatorships in Portugal and Spain, and the democratization
process that gained momentum in the late 1980s in Latin America, near the end of the
Cold War13, had created the best conditions for a compromise between Spain and
Portugal and their former colonies.
When the first Ibero-American Summit was called in 1991, there was unprecedented
euphoria among the parties, as it was the first time - after Panama in 1826 - Latin
American states could meet without the presence of the USA.
A forum for dialogue and political cooperation between Iberian countries and Latin
America, with a great potential, especially in political, social and economic areas, the
CoIBA project is currently facing serious difficulties, like many other forms of
cooperation and integration. The reasons for this include the growing political weight of
bilateral agreements in detriment of multilateral ones14, the growing ideological,
political and economic heterogeneity of states that make up the region, and, once
again, the emergence of nationalism, often invoked by " populist governments "at what
they see as new forms of external hegemony.
Latin America, 200 years later, is considered to be a broad zone of peace. With a GDP
growth of 6% (2010) and relative tranquillity derived mainly from exports of raw
materials, the region is immersed in a democratization process that, although incipient,
extends throughout the territory, with the exception of Cuba.
The paradigmatic case of Brazil, already seen as an emerging power that claims more
"voice" and increased "democratization" at major decision-making worldwide events
(Security Council, IMF, WB, ... G20), must be underlined. In addition, Brazil’s
10 1st Pan-American Conference (USA, 1889-1890), 2nd Pan-American Conference (Mexico, 1902), 3rd Pan-
American Conference (Brazil, 1906), 4th Pan-American Conference (Argentina, 1910), 5th Pan-American
Conference (Chile, 1923), 6th Pan-American Conference (Cuba, 1928), 7th Inter-American Conference
(Uruguay, 1933), 8th Inter-American Conference (Peru, 1938), 9th Inter-American Conference (Colombia,
1948).
11 The Monroism represented the views of the North-American vision of Pan-Americanism, based on U.S.
predominance over other American states. Its first manifestation was precisely the presidential message
of James Monroe, sent to Congress in 1823, where he advocated the idea "America for Americans", ie,
away from European interests.
12 Fernando Garcia Casas, Cabinet Chief of the Ibero-American Secretary General. He was invited to
participate as a speaker at the Conference "Bolivar 200 years later," organized by UAL and IPDAL and
held on 11 October 2010.
13 With the end of the Cold War, Latin America clearly is no longer a priority of U.S. foreign policy.
14 It must be noted e that the FTAA project was delayed and in its place, several bilateral agreements were
signed between the U.S. and some Latin American countries like Colombia, Chile and Peru. Relations
between the EU-Mercosur regional blocs or EU-CAN seem stagnant. The relations between the EU and
Brazil or the EU-Chile are quite more dynamic. However, Mercosur ebbs and flows depending on the
circumstances and difficulties that arise between the Member States.
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140
diplomatic arm is looking for increased South American integration and aims to become
the regional leader15.
Fernando Garcia Casas also pointed out that Latin America is currently facing serious
challenges, such as the fight against poverty. In fact, 32.1% of Latin Americans remain
in poverty and 12.9% are considered indigent. This corresponds to 180 million poor
people, including 72 million in a situation of deprivation. According to the Economic
Commission for Latin America (ECLAC), poverty continues to affect more children and
adolescents than other sectors of society16. And although the balance of the last seven
years is positive, Latin America continues to be the most unequal region in the world.
According to the first Report on Development for Latin America and the Caribbean of
the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), inequality persists and tends to
perpetuate itself in areas where social mobility is low and represents an obstacle to
progress in human development17. Moreover, despite the absence of interstate conflict
that could develop into armed conflicts or wars, other non-traditional threats to
security, such as drug trafficking and urban violence, make this region one of the least
safe in the world18.
To this complex scenario fraught with uncertainty about the future, Jorge Volpi19 adds
little cultural knowledge or ignorance of each other, and the total disappearance of all
distinctive Latin American characteristics. According to the Mexican writer, Latin
America as a prototype, imprinted on Western imagination as the land of dictators,
guerrilla fighters and magical realism, has been fading over time. Lacking real power,
the Latin American identity is constantly challenged by countries like Mexico -
completely bound to the United States and Canada –a country whose settlement,
political and economic decisions are made towards the north, no longer the south.
However, it is in the south that we find incipient integration mechanisms that are
starting to work20. Volpi tells us of a likely scenario for the future, a continent with two
major regional blocs, one in North America, which will eventually absorb the Caribbean,
and one in the South, with Brazil as the main centre of gravity.
15 The 1st Latin America and Caribbean Summit (33 countries), held in Costa de Sauipe (Bahia) in
December 2008, and the agreed compromise to be an Organization of Latin American States and of
Caribbean countries was a perceptible setback to the foreign policies of Spain and the United States and
a genuine triumph for Brazil, who started the initiative.
16 See the CEPAL Report (2010), "Social Panorama of Latin America 2010”.
17 See the PNUD Report (2010), "Acting for the Future: Breaking the Cycle of Intergenerational Inequality."
18 According to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODOC), it is estimated that around 40% of the global
total of violent crimes are committed in Latin America and the Caribbean.
19 Jorge Luis Volpi Escalante is a Mexican writer (winner of the 2nd Prize for Essay Debate-Casa de
América, 2009, for his book "El insomnio de Bolívar”). He was invited to participate as a speaker at the
conference "Bolivar 200 years later," organized by UAL and IPDAL, held on 11 October 2010.
20 The Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) is formed by the twelve countries of South America. The
treaty that formed it was signed in Brasilia on May 23, 2008. Apart from the Councils of Heads of State,
Foreign Ministers and delegates, seven sectoral ministerial councils were created to promote integration
and cooperation in the following areas: energy, health, defence, infrastructure and planning, social
development, combating drug trafficking, and education, culture, science, technology and innovation.
.
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Bibliographic References
ARENAL, Celestino, “Balance de la Asociación Estratégica entre la Unión Europea y los
países de América latina y el Caribe” in Foro Euro Latino Americano de Centros de
Análisis. Fundación Carolina. Madrid, 2010.
ARENAL, Celestino (Coord.), España y América Latina 200 años después de la
Independencia. Valoración y Perspectivas. Real Instituto Elcano. Madrid, 2009. ISBN
978-84-936991-0-9. pp. 391
ATKINS, G. Pope, Latin America in the International Political System. Westview Press.
USA, 1989. ISBN 0-8133-0526-8.
BOERSNER, Demetrio, Relaciones Internacionales de América Latina. Editorial Nueva
Sociedad. Caracas, 1996. ISBN 980-317-092-9.
BOLÍVAR, Simón – Circular de Lima, 7 December 1824. In Obras Completas de Bolívar
(Compilation and notes by Vicente Lecuna), Vol. II. Caracas: Ministério de Educação
Nacional, s.d.
CERVO, Amado Luiz, Relações Internacionais de América Latina. Instituto Brasileiro
Relações Internacionais. University of Brasília. Brazil, 2001. ISBN 85-88270-05-6.
Other sources
CEPAL (2010). “Social Panorama of Latin America 2010” [online] [Retrieved on 15
January 2011]. Available at
http://www.eclac.org/noticias/paginas/8/33638/101130_PanoramaSocial-
30noviembre-final.pdf
PNUD (2010). “Acting for the Future: Breaking the Cycle of Intergenerational
Inequality”. [online] [Retrieved on 17 January 2011]. Available at: http://www.idhalc-
actuarsobreelfuturo.org/site/plantilla.php
How to cite this Note
Gomes, Nancy Elena Ferreira (2010). "Bolívar: 200 years after". Notes and Reflections,
JANUS.NET e-journal of International Relations, Vol. 2, N.º 1, Spring 2011. Consulted
[online] on date of last visit, observare.ual.pt/janus.net/en_vol2_n1_not4.
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
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Vol. 2, n.º 1 (Spring 2011), pp. 142-146
Critical Review
Barbé, Esther (Director) (2010). La Unión Europea más allá de sus
fronteras. Hacia la transformación del Mediterrâneo y Europa
Oriental?. Madrid: Tecnos: 196 pp.
by Rita Duarte
Holder of an Honours Degree in International Relations and student of the Master Degree in
Peace and War Studies at Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa.
Assistant at the Department of International Relations and at OBSERVARE – Observatory of
Foreign Relations, UAL.
The work I propose to review, La Unión Europea más allá de sus fronteras –Hacia la
transformación del Mediterráneo y Europa Oriental? is the result of a three-year
research project headed by Professor Esther Barbé. It was carried out at the
Observatory of European Foreign Policy of the Institut Universitari d'Estudis Europeus
at Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Esther Barbé is a Professor of International
Relations at the Autonomous University of Barcelona and coordinator of research
programmes at the Barcelona Institute of international Studies.
The book was coordinated by Anna Herranz Surrallés, coordinator of the Observatory of
European Foreign Policy and researcher at Institut Universitari d'Estudis Europeus, who
was involved in the research project. This study also reflects the direct participation of
13 researchers, mostly lecturers at the Autonomous University of Barcelona, in addition
to other scholars such as Eduard Soler i Lecha, Programme Coordinator for the
Mediterranean at the CIDOB Foundation.
Structurally, the book is divided into seven chapters. The first is different from the
others as it explains the purpose of the work, raises the questions and identifies the
variables that define the analytical framework of the study, in addition to justifying the
criteria for choosing the case studies examined.
The subsequent chapters seek to answer the questions raised, based on the analysis
and comparison of several case studies (273 in total). These case studies are examined
in light of a two-fold stance: thematic and geographical. Accordingly, each of the six
chapters addresses one of the six major themes chosen for analysis: trade,
environment, energy, foreign policy, migration policy, and good governance. The
relationship the European Union (EU) maintains with its seven neighbouring states,
namely: Algeria, Morocco, Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and Turkey with regard
to each of these sectors is analysed in all chapters.
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Critical Review
Rita Duarte
143
The choice of countries reflects a geographical rationale that seeks to encompass
neighbouring states from the east and south. But it also aims to account for the
different postures of neighbouring states towards the EU, since it includes a state that
is the process of accessing the EU - Turkey -, countries that aspire to eventually join
the EU - the case of the Ukraine and Moldova – and countries that want to work with
the EU on an equal footing, such as Russia or Algeria.
The choice of thematic areas aimed to cover topics clearly "communitised by the
European Union - such as trade and environment - policies which have a predominantly
intergovernmental character - such as foreign policy and the politics of good
governance – and also intermediate areas such as migration policy and energy policy"
(p. 33).
International Context
The authors of La Unión Europea más allá de sus fronteras frame this research study
within the current context of international power structure, of a multipolar nature,
where the EU has been losing influence, hand in hand with the emergence of a Sino-
American G-2 leadership. However, from the outset, this study draws attention to the
fact that that the neo-realist interpretation, by assigning polarity exclusively to states,
becomes reductive when applied to the EU, since its characteristics as a power are not
associated with its nature but with the recognition of its action as a power. Rather, the
authors emphasize the increasing importance of multilateralism, especially due to the
indisputable effect of institutions within that international system. In the case of the
European Union, as a result of the adoption of the European Security Strategy in 2003,
multilateralism has become its international identity reference point. It has since
developed the concept of effective multilateralism, which requires an institutionalized
international order anchored on law.
Based on this multilateral framework and the EU’s loss of influence, and in the
knowledge that the EU's ambition is, since 2001 with the Laeken Declaration, to play
the role of global actor (power), the authors raise the question: is the European Union
a "normative regional hegemony" (p. 17), in which its action involves a type of
"bilateralism as practiced in its European Neighbourhood Policy that is nothing else but
one way of hiding the unilateralism that marks the EU's relations with its neighbours"
(p. 18), or is it a" normative power "whose foreign policy is based on " universal
principles and values more than on material interests" (p. 21)?
What regulatory convergence?
The relevance given to the EU’s neighbouring countries originated, on the one hand, in
the actual Treaty of Lisbon, as it highlights the importance of EU's neighbouring
countries (with whom it maintains preferential relations), and, on the other, in the need
to ascertain whether the Union’s ascendancy at regional level allows it to ensure it is
recognized as a global power. Thus, the authors examine the EU's contribution to the
promotion of regional security, focusing mainly on the strategy adopted to establish
relations with its neighbouring states in the east and south.
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This is the starting point for the major analysis in the study: in its aim to bring together
distinct institutional, legal and political systems, which convergence strategy does the
Union promote? Are the EU's relations with its neighbours asymmetric, whereby the
latter undergo a process of Europeanization and are subject to the interests and
unilateral transfer of the rules of that institution? Or is the relationship process more
complex and there are other models that can be taken into account?
The authors seek to demonstrate that the latter option is more consistent with reality,
and claim that, in a complex and flexible international system, "several normative
levels - bilateral, European, international - and explanatory variables - power,
legitimacy – coexist and enable the construction of different models of regulatory
convergence between the EU and its neighbours - coordination, Europeanization,
internationalization" (p. 18). The case studies used in this analysis, which, must be
stressed, sets a double comparison in thematic and geographical terms, allow us to
empirically identify which model was applied in each situation and why.
Thus, besides the convergence model described as Europeanization, which involves the
partial or full adoption of EU legislation - the case of Turkey in its accession process -
there are two types of convergence: international and bilateral. Generally, the authors
see the international model when the "politics of convergence is based on standards
developed by other international institutions" (p.25), and give as an example the
various Action Plans of the European Neighbourhood Policy that mention agreements,
regulations, protocols, and international institutions rules, like the United Nations or
regional ones, such as the Council of Europe or the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe. The third regulatory model is based on a convergence of policies
through "standards developed bilaterally between the EU and the neighbouring country
to adapt to the situation in question" (p. 25).
Given that, according to the book, the transfer of the EU acquis to its neighbours is just
one of three possibilities for delineating a process of policy convergence, then it is
necessary to understand which variables – which the authors refer to as independent –
influence the choice of the convergence model according to which the European Union's
relationship with each of its neighbouring states will be based.
These independent variables are the EU's bargaining power and the mutual perception
of legitimacy by the neighbouring state. The bargaining power of the European Union
refers to "its ability to provide sufficient incentives or disincentives (economic or
political sanctions, for example), to neighbouring countries so that they adopt the
standards outlined by the Union " (p. 27). Starting from a cost / benefit rationale, this
variable involves the neighbouring state choosing between the expected benefit from
the incorporation of EU standards and the cost its implementation will represent.
The second variable - mutual perception of legitimacy - "refers to the degree of
coherence between the standards provided by the EU and the existing body of
regulations in the neighbouring country" (p. 28). This variable is based on a
constructivist approach that advocates the adoption of new standards by an actor
whenever these are deemed appropriate to the social context of that actor. In turn, this
variable is influenced by "i) degree of identification of the neighbouring country with the
Union as a community to be part of, independently of the fact this has been recognized
by the Union or not, ii) the authority which the neighbouring country attaches to the
European Union as a promoter of norms and iii) if the process of setting convergence
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standards is seen by the neighbouring country as being unilateral or a result of proper
consultation with relevant actors in neighbouring countries "(p. 28).
Consequently, the choice of convergence model that is most appropriate to each
situation depends on the relationship established between the model in question and
these independent variables. In the light of these factors, the authors define three
working hypotheses for the choice of convergence model, stating that the convergence
of standards based on EU norms will be the more demanding model, as it implies a
strong bargaining power on the EU’s part and a good sense of legitimacy on the part of
the partner state.
In turn, they assume that convergence through international standards can be a less
expensive model, since international organization norms are more general and
comprehensive than the EU’s. However, it also implies a strong sense of legitimacy of
international standards (greater than that attributed to possible European
counterparts), and also requires a good bargaining power on the part of the EU. And,
finally, it is suggested that the least invasive and more legitimate model, from the
viewpoint of the neighbouring state, is the model for convergence of standards
developed on a bilateral basis. This model - coordination - is used when the EU's
bargaining power and perceived legitimacy are low and generally reflects "a balanced
mix of political views and interests of each of the parties involved" (p. 30).
The empirical analysis
This combination of factors - models of convergence, independent variables, subject
areas, and neighbouring states - shows how difficult it is to establish the convergence
model to be adopted beforehand. Furthermore, we are shown that each of the different
convergence models corresponds to distinct impacts and modes of interaction.
Accordingly, the various examples drawn from case studies become confusing for those
who seek to establish a set of pre-set rules for implementing each convergence
method.
In Chapter III, for example, which focuses on energy issues, the authors demonstrate
that, although the primary convergence model is done in accordance with European
standards (often due to an international normative vacuum), acceptance of those
European standards does not imply immediate Europeanization, rather a "selective and
gradual reform" (p. 82) in the energy sectors of the countries examined.
In turn, the immigration and asylum policies referred to in Chapter VI shows us that
even within the same topic, different models of convergence can be applied, since in
the illegal immigration subsector, the European Union fundamentally promotes
convergence through Europeanization, while in the legal immigration subsector,
convergence is made through bilateral norms, and in asylum-related issues, there is a
combined convergence between international standards and EU standards.
Regarding the influence of independent variables, the authors demonstrate that in the
case of good governance (Chapter VII), the convergence model depends not only on
the theme but also on the country in question. For example, Algeria, which has a very
high bargaining power due to its energy resources, becomes a "reluctant partner" (p.
171) with regard to the European Neighbourhood Policy and seeks to maintain a
relationship and a level of cooperation among equals.
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The specific case of Algeria shows that only 5% of the relations with the EU are made
by convergence through Community rules (p. 177), and that standards negotiated
bilaterally have a strong prevalence. On the contrary, it is demonstrated that in
countries where the European Union’s bargaining power is higher, as in the case of
Ukraine and Moldova, which have confirmed their aspiration to join the EU,
Europeanization is the most frequent convergence model.
Conclusion
This work is very rich in practical examples that respond to issues raised at the
beginning. The conclusions contradict the theory that the EU acts unilaterally, as the
convergence model based on community standards is the least used (the only
exception is the case of Turkey, given the country’s situation in the process of
accession). In fact, this analysis demonstrates that " EU standards appear as patterns
of convergence in only 23% of the cases examined, which is a smaller percentage than
standards negotiated bilaterally" (p. 181). The most common convergence model is
based on international standards, due to the independent variables: it reflects a lower
bargaining power on the part of the EU and is more likely to be perceived as legitimate
by the neighbouring state.
In this light, the EU’s action in its relationship with neighbouring states does not fit the
initially identified concept of "normative regional hegemony." Although it appears that
its European Neighbourhood Policy was created with the aim of convergence of
standards across the Union, the European Union is "subject to a series of internal and
external constraints" (p. 190), like any international actor. At a critical moment of
European integration as the one we are witnessing, these reflections are undoubtedly
very useful.
How to cite this Critical Review
Duarte, Rita (2011). Critical Review of Barbé, Esther (Director). La Unión Europeia más allá
de sus fronteras. Hacia la transformación del mediterrâneo y Europa Oriental?. Madrid:
Tecnos, 2010; 196 pp., JANUS.NET e-journal of International Relations, Vol. 2, N.º 1, Spring
2011. Consulted [online] on date of last visit,
observare.ual.pt/janus.net/en_vol2_n1_rec1.
OBSERVARE
Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
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Critical Review
Blair, Tony (2010). A Journey. London: Hutchinson: 718 pp.
by Evanthia Balla
PhD in Political Science and International Relations by the Catholic University of Lisbon,
M.A. in European Studies by the University of Reading, UK and M.A.
in International Politics by the Université Libre de Bruxelles,
Assistant Professor in the Law Department at the University Portucalense
Researcher at OBSERVARE (UAL) and at the Instituto Jurídico Portucalense.
Since the day Tony Blair left office, in June 2007, he has never really been away from
the spotlight. This is mainly because the constant controversy around the 2003 Iraq
war remains intact and questions over the motives and reasons behind Blair´s decision
are still seeking an answer.
Today, after a deliberate period of silence, Blair ´s memoir A Journey offers him the
chance to say and explain1.
Indeed, the book includes testaments over various events from his private life, such as
the devastating feeling after the loss of his mother to whom he had a special
connection or the surprising relationship with alcohol.
But as far as the politician is concerned, his book seems to be a personal account of a
leader in a certain period of time, his vision and decisions, an instrument to preserve
his legacy, justifying the war against Iraq, and staying loyal to New Labour.
Blair writes about his first day in office. He was inexperienced but determined to make
a difference. Since the beginning, he created a personal warm relationship with the
people of Britain, in particular after Princess Diana´s death, when in his speech really
captured the public mood.
But this relationship between Blair and the public was not to last long with the false
prospectus of the Iraq War, which marked the lowest point of his popularity.
After the publication of Blair´s memoir, the British newspapers concentrated mostly on
his rivalry relationship with Gordon Brown. Alongside Gordon Brown and Peter
Mandelson, Blair was indeed the driving force behind New Labour. However, it was not
until June 2007, the end of Blair´s premiership, that Blair would finally give way to
1 Kettle, Martin. “World exclusive Tony Blair interview”, The Guardian, Wednesday, 01.09.2010. Available
at: http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/sep/01/tony-blair-a-journey-interview Accessed on:
31.01.2011
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Brown. And Brown in fact had worked with strong political skills to ensure that there
would be no rival for the succession.
Although domestic politics figure notably in Blair´s book - the 1997 labour party
campaign was fought almost exclusively on a domestic policy base - is his foreign policy
that really defines Blair’s decade in office, from 1997 to 2007. And it is his controversial
performance in the world scene that really captures the mind of the reader abroad.
Blair admits my awakening on domestic politics took place over time. Probably I only
fully found my voice on domestic reform in the last term. The awakening on foreign
policy was, by contrast, abrupt. It happened over Kosovo.2 This successful military
intervention was to influence his subsequent decisions on Sierra Leone, Afghanistan
and, crucially, Iraq.
Blair is a liberal interventionist. He does not withdraw anything he said in his Chicago
speech, on 22 April 1999, and its liberal interventionist doctrine of international
community. 3 Starting from the reality of interdependence in an age of globalisation, a
world where events in a faraway place can have immediate effect on our national
security, he argues that intervention to bring down a despotic dictatorial regime could
be justified on grounds of the nature of the regime, not merely the immediate threat to
national interest.
Yet, the Blair doctrine has challenged notions of national sovereignty and non-
interventionism principles going back to the Peace of Westphalia in 1648. And it
appeared to justify the approach to Afghanistan and Iraq in which battle was to take
place at a different scale. As a result he knows that his historical legacy is likely to be
most closely linked to the ultimate outcomes of those wars. Therefore, he devotes a
considerable amount of space in his memoir to defending military adventurism,
especially in Iraq.
I have often reflected as to whether I was wrong. I ask you to reflect as to whether I
may have been right.4
The book contains lengthy passages on 9/11 terrorist attacks in New York and
Washington. For Blair this was definitely a war, a war that had to be fought differently
from any other. Precisely, it was an ideological battle, the mores and modus vivendi of
religious fanaticism versus those of an enlightened secular system of government that
in the West, at least, incorporated belief in liberty, equality and democracy.5
Blair does not proclaim that he did not fight for the British national interest. But, what
he claims to be the focal point of the foreign policy of our days is globalisation. He does
believe that the defining characteristic of today’s world is its interdependence; and that
unless we articulate a common global policy based on common values, we risk chaos
threatening our economic and political stability.
And in practice, the terrorist attacks of 9/11 in New York and Washington, 11/03/2004
in Madrid, and 21/07/2005 in London, prove clearly that terrorism can knock our doors,
claiming thousands of innocent lives with no previous notice.
2 A Journey, p. 223
3 Blair, Tony (1999). “Doctrine of the International Community”, Speech at the Economic Club of Chicago.
Available at Downing Street website: http://www.number10.gov.uk/Page1297 Accessed on: 10.02.2011
4 A Journey, p. 374
5 Ibid, p. 346
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For Blair, the enemy has to know that we are determined to act. This drove his policy
drastically in Afghanistan and as well as in Iraq.
To win in this way would not and does not require simply a military strategy to defeat
an enemy that is fighting us. It requires a whole new geopolitical framework. It
requires nation-building6. […] it had to be fought on the high ground – our values
versus theirs […] Like it or not, from then on, we were in the business of nation
building. 7
To the question is Iraq better now than in Saddam´s time, Blair answers: of course. In
1979, when Saddam took the power, Iraq was richer than Portugal. By 2003, the
population was dependent on food aid, by 60%. Today, GDP per head in Iraq is three
times that of Iraq in 2003.8
However, Blair does not address critically the practical challenge of nation-building. He
simply reasserts that the price must be paid in the battle against terrorism and radical
Islam. Though he showed courage in the Iraq war, the war itself has been a failure.
Indeed, there was no legitimising reasoning behind the endeavour, nor from the United
Nations (UN) neither from the public opinion. There were not found Weapons of Mass
Destruction (WMD) in the possession of the Saddam regime. And definitely there was
no planning for the aftermath reconstruction and stabilisation of the country. The Shia-
Sunni gap has been wider across the Muslim world. The situation in Iran has been more
aggressive too.
In addition, the case for a new international community is strong and Blair has often
put it clearly. There have been some notable successes, as in Sierra Leone and Kosovo.
But this community will only come into being if pursued through example and
persuasion, not through war. Subsequently, the attempt to impose Western values on
distant states through armed force is doomed to failure.
Blair in his memoir admits that there was not an active WMD programme in Iraq as
they thought, yet he repeats the same arguments as to the reasons why he still would
do the same thing, such as the tyranny of Saddam regime, the international law
violations, the security threat to his neighbors and the world.
The books shed little light to Blair´s feelings over the resignations and the hundreds of
thousands of people who marched in protest in Britain and across the world. The list of
those who disagreed with the invasion and occupation of Iraq was long, including
personalities who fought for personal freedom and justice for years, like Nelson
Mandela.
I finished reading his memoir still thinking of Tony Blair as an enigmatic leader.
Enigmatic, as one can be easily inspired by his values and his philosophical conceptions
about modern politics, but at the same time one can be profoundly disappointed by his
unquestioning acceptance of US policy and interventionist approach in Iraq.
For Clausewitz9 moral courage and determination is what makes a great strategist.
Blair had both, love him or loath him.
6 A Journey, p. 349
7 Ibid, p. 357
8 Ibid, p. 378-379
9 Clausewitz, Carl von (1984). On War, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
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In the end, his Journey was definitely as much a triumph of the person over politics as
was a triumph of the politics over the person. 10
How to cite this Critical Review
Balla, Evanthia (2011). Critical Review of Blair, Tony (2010). A Journey. Londres:
Hutchinson: 718 pp., JANUS.NET e-journal of International Relations, Vol. 2, N.º 1, Spring
2011. Consulted [online] on date of last visit,
observare.ual.pt/janus.net/en_vol2_n1_rec2.
10 A Journey, p. 691
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Critical Review
Rajan, Raghuram G. (2011). Linhas de Fractura – As fracturas escondidas
que ameaçam a economia mundial (Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still
Threaten the World Economy). Lisbon: Babel: 429 pp. ISBN 978-972-22-
3024-7 (Translated by Carla Pedro)
by Amadeu Paiva
Lecturer in the Department of International Relations
of Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa.
This is the Portuguese edition of a book about, according to the first words written on
it1, "the financial collapse of 2007 and the "Great Depression" that followed". In other
words, this is a book about the newly enshrined word, the "crisis" which shook the
financial world in the U.S. and Europe, and which, due to the configuration of the world
economy, impacted on virtually all sectors of society worldwide, something we are still
experiencing.
It is a very compelling book, essential for anyone wishing to know more about this
issue. The author has a PhD in economics from MIT, and he has been the IMF's chief
economist, professor of finance at the University of Chicago and contributor to the
Indian government as an adviser and chairman of the committee for the regulation of
the financial sector. Such a curriculum, in addition to winning the Fischer Black Prize
awarded by the American Finance Association, leaves him particularly well placed to
deal with this topic.
However, this is also due to the fact that he was one of the economists who predicted
this crisis. The episode of his participation in the 2005 meeting of the Jackson Hole
conference is often cited. This conference annually brings together the governors of
main central banks, and experts in the fields of economics and finance are invited to
submit their contributions. The work he presented at this meeting - titled “Has financial
development made the world riskier?” – advanced that prediction and had a visible
impact on the audience because, as the author writes in his Introduction, "it was not in
tune with the general tone" which, at the time, marked the discussions on issues
relating to the financial industry.
What makes this book indispensable is the recognition it attained, having been
considered the best business book of 2010 and awarded the Financial Times/ Goldman
Sachs Prize.
1 The original book is Rajan, Raghuram G. (2010). Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the
World Economy, Princeton University Press. The edition from which the translation into Portuguese was
made is not mentioned.
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The book was written for an audience broader than just specialists in this area, and
focuses on the economy of the United States2, the home of what is deemed to be the
most sophisticated financial system in the world. Accordingly, the main question that
occurred to me when I was asked to make a presentation for janus.net, was to know
whether a book that was just written in February 2010, when the crisis is not yet over,
and centred on the North American reality, could be of interest to Portuguese speaking
readers who are not specialists in this field, because, should that be the case, they
would have already read the English version. And I also wondered about the
contribution the book could make to readers who are experiencing the crisis from a
Portuguese and European perspective.
Portuguese readers who are aware of the news and debates in the general media, are
exposed to the social environment, have seen the film "Inside Job", and read the
references and jokes circulating on the internet3, not to mention the Memorandum of
Understanding agreed between Portugal and the "Troika"4, will not find that the topics
exposed in the book or even the language used constitute big news. However, I think
readers will benefit from the reflections that may arise from reading the book, and from
the comparisons they will be able to make between events described in the book and
those currently experienced in Portugal and elsewhere in Europe. Nevertheless, readers
should not stop being critical, because both the arguments used and the theses are not
irrefutable5.
The book focuses on the forewarnings resulting from the crisis and proposes a set of
reasons for explaining it, putting them in context and analyzing them. This analysis is
the starting point from which the author presents what he believes to be the difficult
political choices that will fight the real causes of this and potential future crises.
The approach method the author uses is based on the concept of 'fault lines', i.e., sets
of interacting forces which cause huge tensions which, in turn, generate crises, like the
fault lines created by the contact or collision of tectonic plates on the Earth's surface,
which result in earthquakes. He believes that these fault lines are in fact systemic, and
he moves away from the explanation he classifies as simplistic, according to which the
crisis could be explained only by the behaviour of individuals or specific institutions.
Besides an "Introduction" and an "Epilogue", the book is divided into ten chapters. In
the first seven, the author explains all three sets of fault lines he has examined. The
last three chapters are dedicated to reforms and other proposed policy measures.
These three sets of fault lines are the result of the contact (i) between politics and
financial markets, (ii) between countries, especially among the economies that
consume too much, like the United States, and those that do not consume enough,
such as Germany and Japan and, increasingly, China; and (iii) between different types
2 A useful book with a non-American perspective of the financial system, based on the experience of
European countries, is: Dewatripont, Mathias; Rochet, Jean-Charles and Tirole, Jean (2010). Balancing
the bank: global lessons from the financial crisis, Princeton University Press.
3 Subprime Crisis by Bird and Fortune (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzJmTCYmo9g) is quite an
interesting example.
4 On this, see the commentary on Collaterized Debt Obligations and on the European Financial Stability
Facility (EFSF) by Zingales, Luigi, published in Negócios Online (Online Businesses), on 7 January 2011,
titled A alquimia financeira da Europa (The financial alchemy of Europe).
(http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/home.php?template=SHOWNEWS_V2&id=461849)
5 On this it is interesting to read Paul Krugmam’s critiques of some of the theses and arguments advanced
by Rajan in his book (http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2000/sep/30/slump-goes-why/) and
also Rajan’s actual reply (http://forums.chicagobooth.edu/faultlines?entry=24).
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of world financial systems, specifically between transparent and non-favoured financial
systems – like in the U.S. and in the UK - and less transparent financial systems that
exist in most part of the world, given that they operate based on different principles
and are subject to different forms of government intervention, which means they tend
to distort the functioning of each other whenever they finance each other.
The most important example of the first type of fracture line is the one that results
from rising income inequality in the United States – which the author attributes to the
insufficient results of undifferentiated socialization of education and learning in general,
which has been generating deficits in the human capital that the U.S. economy needs -
and the political pressure that was created to facilitate credit giving.
In this situation, the political response to rising inequality was to use credit as a
stopgap: consumption not supported by a low income may be supported by affordable
credit. "The benefits - increased consumption and more jobs - were immediate,
postponing the payment of the bill into the future" (p. 24). In particular, the author
discusses the controversial policy to promote wider access to home ownership.
Another example of fracture resulting from contact between politics and financial
markets, to which the author gives great importance for its harmful effects, is precisely
how the U.S. monetary policy is influenced by political considerations, along the same
lines of credit facilitation, in order to respond to a situation where economic recovery is
done without an increase in jobs, in a country where the duration of unemployment
benefits is short and medical care benefits are not available to the unemployed. Hence,
a policy of low interest rates stimulates job creation, but in a deregulated financial
market, it turns out to have adverse effects by causing the price increase of raw
materials, the price of assets that are not remunerated by interest, the tendency for
the financial sector to take more risks and make credit more easily available.
Going beyond mere economic logic, "the economic recovery has everything to do with
jobs, not with production, and politicians are prepared to offer fiscal and monetary
incentives to the economy until jobs start to reappear" (p. 34). The second series of
fault lines emanates from the contact between economies with high levels of
consumption and economies with relatively lower levels of consumption. In the first
case, we have the United States, which, according to the book and as a result of their
relative scarcity of savings, funded "... their expenditure in 2006 by borrowing about
70% of the world's surplus savings" (p. 363). In the second case, the author refers in
particular to Germany, Japan and China, countries that have based their growth on
exports. This means they had surplus production capacity with regard to their domestic
consumption, which enabled them, in the late 1990s and in the 2000s, to meet an
important part of U.S. demand. In this context, the author finds a second fault line: the
excessive dependence of countries with growth based on exports vis-à-vis foreign
consumers, which undermines the global economy for the pressure that these countries
exert on importing countries to maintain their pace consumption, since their protected
and inefficient domestic markets are unable, by themselves, to promote the growth of
their own economies.
The last set of fault lines was brought about by the contact between different types of
financial systems. On this topic, three main sets of considerations stand out in the
book. The first deals with "the flighty unpredictable foreign funding”, putting emphasis
on the reasons why, in the process of "developing countries" seeking financing, the
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tensions and confrontation between the consequences of their “less transparent
financial systems", which is the result of assistance given by banks and governments -
and the "more transparent" financial systems of the lenders, contributed to those
countries becoming net exporters, and thus cease to contribute to the absorption of
global oversupply.
The second set of considerations exposes one of the weaknesses of “transparent and
non-favoured" financial systems: the fact that investors trust, without much scrutiny,
their safety, in addition to the ratings they attribute to assets traded in these systems,
as well as the market prices that are formed therein, leaving them unprepared when
something does not work that well.
Finally, the author examines the explanations advanced for the behaviour of financial
agents who helped trigger the crisis, leading them to exaggerate their risk taking.
The policy measures the author proposes to remedy and especially prevent future
crises, presented in Chapters 8, 9 and 10, leave, somehow, a feeling of dissatisfaction.
Let us examine how they are presented right in the “Introduction”:
"There are no miracle solutions. The reforms will require careful analysis and
sometimes a tedious attention to detail. I shall examine this topic (...) by focusing on
more comprehensive approaches. My proposals, if implemented, could substantially
transform the world we live in and make it leave the path of deepening crisis for a path
of greater economic and political stability and cooperation. (...).Reforms will require
societies to change their way of life, how they grow and how they make choices. They
will involve a significant short-term pain, but, in exchange, we will attain enormous and
widespread long-term gains. These reforms are always difficult to sell to the public, so
they are not very attractive to politicians. But the cost of doing nothing is perhaps a
worsening of the turbulence we experienced recently, because the fault lines, if not
identified, only tend to deepen even more"(p. 42).
When we read these proposals, some seem superficially presented, and some side
effects appear to have been neglected; and those steps that appear necessary to make
are few and far between, especially those outside the scope of strictly monetary and
financial matters. This is further aggravated by the fact that some have not been
implemented and others were so skewed that fail to guarantee that, as originally
worded, they would have been effective.
Chapter 8 is about reforming the financial sector, and considers that the main issue is
to make the private sector re-evaluate risk properly, without assuming that the
government will intervene. “Transparency will need to be encouraged to make people
interested in monitoring the relationship between the government - or the regulator -
and the financial sector. Much of what I propose falls short of the expectations of those
who want drastic solutions" (p. 326).
The author then presents a list of measures that are certainly not alien to the reader
and which were in general widely referenced in the media, whose implementation has
been attempted or achieved. These measures are related to salaries and incentives for
managers of financial firms, to the distortions in assessing risk, managing the
expectations of government intervention, the end of government subsidies and
privileges to financial institutions, the introduction of a type of regulatory mechanism
JANUS.NET, e-journal of International Relations
ISSN: 1647-7251
Vol. 2, n.º 1 (Spring 2011), pp. 151-155
Critical Review
Amadeu Paiva
155
that is cycle-proof, comprehensive, non-discriminative, and cost-effective, and also to
measures related to competition and innovation...
It is interesting that the author suggests that "one possibility is to keep the deposit
guarantees for small banks which, in turn, should pay a fair insurance premium,
reducing them gradually in the case of larger banks, until they are phased out "(p.
322).
The chapter titled "Improving access to opportunities in America" proposes reforms in
the U.S. economy, which, as expected and given the prominence given to the
respective fault lines, are related to quality improvement of human capital and
strengthening the safety net both for the protection of the unemployed and for access
to health care, security of pensions, labour mobility, and, marginally, to encouraging
savings and fiscal policy.
In the last chapter ("The fable of the bees replayed"), the author addresses the
question of current international economic relations, the role of multilateral
organizations and, in particular, the positioning of China in this context, without
explaining who will make a change in the status quo and how.
Two final considerations:
One may argue whether this crisis is more or less similar to previous ones or if it is
completely different. Reading this book also helps to reflect on this. At least apparently,
when one casually leafs through a book on financial history, the general features of all
crises are alike. Does the germ of the crisis in the financial industry have a congenital
and chronic nature?
Consider, for instance, this description referring to an event that took place in the
eighteenth century: "Warsaw organized a major bills of exchange business, which was
based on, and aimed to guarantee, the usury of bankers. In order to get money they
could lend to the great squandering lords at an interest rate of 8% and above, they
sought and found outside the country bills of credit that were not based on any trade in
goods, and that the foreign drawer accepted indulgently until the remittances obtained
by means of speculation failed. With the bankruptcy of Tepper and other highly
reputable bankers in Warsaw, they paid dearly for this business” 6.
One may equally argue whether “the financial sector actually contributes to economic
growth and well-being or whether it is only a secondary element, largely irrelevant,
that only makes its presence felt when it periodically implodes" (p. 282).
It would be highly desirable not to have any doubts about these two issues.
How to cite this Critical Review
Paiva, Amadeu (2011). Critical Review of Rajan, Raghuram G. (2011). Linhas de
Fractura – As fracturas escondidas que ameaçam a economia mundial. Lisbon:
Babel: 429 pp. ISBN 978-972-22-3024-7 (Translated by Carla Pedro), JANUS.NET e-
journal of International Relations, Vol. 2, N.º 1, Spring 2011. Consulted [online] on date
of last visit, observare.ual.pt/janus.net/en_vol2_n1_rec3.
6 Büsch, J. G. (1808). Theoretisch-praktisehe Darstellung der Handlung..., 3rd ed., volume II, Hamburg:
232s pp., quoted in Marx, Karl. The Capital, Book 3, vol. 5, Ed. Civilização Brasileira / Centro do Livro
Brasileiro.